Varaždin vs Rijeka Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Anđelko Herjavec Wed, 22 Apr - 3:45 PM
1. HNL
Varaždin Varaždin
1 Winner 0
Rijeka Rijeka
Full Time Wed, 22 Apr 3:45 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
Luka Mamic - 54' (P)
Goal
|

Varaždin vs Rijeka preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

Match is finished. Varaždin 1–0 Rijeka. The result saw Varaždin take the points. Varaždin showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 47%–53%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Varaždin's victory represented a significant 62.4% deviation from pre-market expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiencies for both teams remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The final outcome aligned with pre-market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were unavailable for evaluation.
  • Event impact: No events or adjustments notably impacted the match result.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in zero distortion to the scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Jakšić
A. Jakšić
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.65
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.9
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.45
D. Knez
D. Knez
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.65
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.9
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.45
M. Crnojević
M. Crnojević
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.65
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.9
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.45
D. Strukan
D. Strukan
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.65
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.9
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.45
Varaždin N. Šafarić
N. Šafarić
VS
Rijeka V. Sánchez del Amo
V. Sánchez del Amo
1.45
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.55
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Osijek Rank: W
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: W
Gorica Rank: D
Istra 1961 Rank: L
Vukovar Rank: W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: D
Osijek Rank: L
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: W
Gorica Rank: L
Istra 1961 Rank: L
Vukovar Rank: W
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 11 - 20
20

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Varaždin
37.63%
Draw
29.43%
Away Rijeka
32.94%

Movement

Changes since opening
Varaždin
-57.09%
Draw
+24.34%
Rijeka
+32.75%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
24.95
27.95
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Varaždin
Rijeka
Power Score
24.95
27.95
League Position
3
4
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Varaždin — Opponent-weighted form score
Rijeka — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Varaždin Rijeka

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Varaždin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rijeka

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Varaždin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rijeka
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
7.77
34.81
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.81
7.77
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Varaždin -2.75 Efficiency Index
vs
Rijeka +2.75 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Varaždin
Rijeka
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Varaždin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rijeka
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Varaždin Rijeka
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Varaždin Rijeka
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Varaždin
Rijeka
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Varaždin
vs
Rijeka
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Varaždin Rijeka
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Varaždin 0.06
Rijeka 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Varaždin Rijeka
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Varaždin 0.00
Rijeka 0.03
Varaždin
Rijeka
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Rijeka had peak pressure around 87'.
  • Rijeka started the game with stronger pressure.
Varaždin Pressure Rijeka Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Rijeka reached the top pressure at 87' (93.27).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 41 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Varaždin Varaždin Home
41 matches
Rijeka Rijeka Away
Match Record
10
Wins
20
11
Draws
11
20
Losses
10
Goals
47
Goals Scored
71
71
Goals Conceded
47
-24
Goal Difference
+24
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-23T00:00:59+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
O. Zelenika
Croatia
1 O. Zelenika
L. Škaričić
Substitution
Croatia
4 L. Škaričić
M. Barać
Croatia
44 M. Barać
N. Tepšić
Croatia
16 N. Tepšić
F. Maglica
Croatia
23 F. Maglica
I. Canjuga
Substitution
Croatia
28 I. Canjuga
D. Puclin
Croatia
6 D. Puclin
G. Sikošek
Substitution
Slovenia
20 G. Sikošek
A. Latković
Substitution
Montenegro
10 A. Latković
L. Mamić
Croatia
22 L. Mamić
Iuri Tavares
Substitution
Cape Verde
38 Iuri Tavares
M. Zlomislić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
13 M. Zlomislić
N. Bodetic
Croatia
91 N. Bodetic
M. Devetak
Serbia
34 M. Devetak
A. Majstorović
Croatia
45 A. Majstorović
J. Lasickas
Lithuania
23 J. Lasickas
C. Legbo Ouguehi
Substitution
Ivory Coast
24 C. Legbo Ouguehi
A. Barco Del Solar
Peru
55 A. Barco Del Solar
B. Pavić
Croatia
66 B. Pavić
A. Gojak
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
14 A. Gojak
A. Jurič
Croatia
77 A. Jurič
D. Adu-Adjei
Substitution
England
18 D. Adu-Adjei

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 22, 2026, 03:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Anđelko Herjavec
Capacity
10800
Attendance
2540
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Alen Jakšić
Dino Knez
Marko Crnojević
Duje Strukan

Statistics

Possession
Varaždin
49%
Rijeka
51%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 1
1 Shots 3
33 Dangerous attacks 69
47 Possession 53
1 Corners 12
7 Free kicks 5
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

23 Throwins 37
6 Dribble Attempts 12
3 Successful Dribbles 2
14 Goal Kicks 7
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 17
5 Substitutions 3
1 Penalties 0

Attacking

106 Attacks 126
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

81 Long Passes 36
382 Passes 385
45 Successful Long Passes 14
303 Successful Passes 315
79 Successful Passes Percentage 82
56 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39

Defensive

35 Duels Won 31
4 Interceptions 10
15 Tackles 13
3 Saves 0

Build-up

7 Total Crosses 50
1 Accurate Crosses 15

Discipline

5 Fouls 8
0 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Duje Strukan

Starting XI ▼

1
Oliver Zelenika
Oliver Zelenika Goalkeeper
6.89
4
Luka Skaricic
Luka Skaricic Defender
6.93
2
Sven Lesjak
Sven Lesjak
Defender46'
7.01
16
Novak Tepsic
Novak Tepsic Defender
6.68
44
Mateo Barac
Mateo Barac Defender
6.63
6
David Puclin
David Puclin Midfielder
6.55
20
Gregor Sikosek
Gregor Sikosek Midfielder
6.84
25
Antonio Borsic
Antonio Borsic
Defender46'
6.58
23
Frane Maglica
Frane Maglica Midfielder
6.81
28
Ivan Canjuga
Ivan Canjuga Midfielder
6.46
8
Tomislav Duvnjak
Tomislav Duvnjak
Midfielder46'
6.82
10
Aleksa Latkovic
Aleksa Latkovic Attacker
7.15
7
Matej Vuk
Matej Vuk
Attacker74'
6.81
22
Luka Mamic
Luka Mamic Attacker
6.65
38
Iuri Tavares
Iuri Tavares Attacker
6.99
15
Silvio Ilinkovic
Silvio Ilinkovic
Midfielder81'
6.93
Referee : Duje Strukan

Starting XI ▼

13
Martin Zlomislic
Martin Zlomislic Goalkeeper
6.68
23
Justas Lasickas
Justas Lasickas Defender
6.67
34
Mladen Devetak
Mladen Devetak Defender
6.63
45
Ante Majstorovic
Ante Majstorovic Defender
6.88
91
Noel Bodetic
Noel Bodetic Defender
6.62
14
Amer Gojak
Amer Gojak Midfielder
6.56
19
Samuele Vignato
Samuele Vignato
Attacker77'
6.89
24
Christian Ouguehi Legbo
Christian Ouguehi Legbo Midfielder
6.59
11
Gabriel Rukavina
Gabriel Rukavina
Attacker68'
6.52
55
Alfonso Daniel Barco del Solar
Alfonso Daniel Barco del Solar Midfielder
6.48
66
Branko Pavic
Branko Pavic Midfielder
6.57
18
Daniel Adu-Adjei
Daniel Adu-Adjei Attacker
6.75
9
Duje Cop
Duje Cop
Attacker68'
6.58
77
Ante Matej Juric
Ante Matej Juric Attacker
6.86

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Silvio Ilinkovic → Iuri Tavares
8th Substitution
81'
77'
Event
Samuele Vignato → Amer Gojak
7th Substitution
Event
Matej Vuk → Aleksa Latkovic
6th Substitution
74'
68'
Event
Duje Cop → Daniel Adu-Adjei
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Gabriel Rukavina → Christian Ouguehi Legbo
5th Substitution
Event
Aleksa Latkovic
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
67'
67'
Event
Ante Majstorovic
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Luka Mamic
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
54'
Event
Sven Lesjak → Luka Skaricic
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Antonio Borsic → Gregor Sikosek
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Tomislav Duvnjak → Ivan Canjuga
2nd Substitution
46'

CONCLUSION

Varaždin's 1-0 upset over Rijeka exemplifies football's capacity for surprises, as the home team overcame the visitors' stronger billing and possession supremacy. Goalless at halftime, the game turned on Varaždin's second-half precision, exposing Rijeka's inability to convert dominance into goals. This significant deviation underscores tactical execution over raw stats, with market alignment intact despite the shift. Free of red cards or disruptions, the result highlights disciplined defending and opportunistic attacking as keys to victory, reinforcing that even slight edges can tip tight encounters decisively.

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

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