Sønderjyske Fodbold vs FC Midtjylland Prediction, Preview and Stats

Denmark flag 2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark
Sydbank Park Thu, 23 Apr - 6:00 PM
Superliga
Sønderjyske Fodbold SON
1 Winner 2
FC Midtjylland FCM
Full Time Thu, 23 Apr 6:00 PM
Round 6 Championship Round
M. Hoppe - 40'
Goal
|
Goal
Edward Chilufya - 24'
Daníel Leó Grétarsson - 49' (Own Goal)

Sønderjyske Fodbold vs FC Midtjylland preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

Sønderjyske Fodbold welcomed FC Midtjylland to their home ground in a competitive Danish league clash that concluded with a 1-2 victory for the visitors. The first half was tightly contested, ending 1-1 as both sides found the net once, reflecting the even nature at the break. Midtjylland asserted control in possession, holding 60% to Sønderjyske's 40%, which translated into sustained pressure. The decisive moment came in the second half when Midtjylland capitalized on their dominance to score the winner, securing all three points. No red cards disrupted the flow, allowing continuous action throughout. Identified as the stronger team beforehand, Midtjylland's performance validated their status, overcoming Sønderjyske's resilient defense. The minimal deviation in the outcome underscored a straightforward execution of superiority, with no major tactical shifts noted post-interval. This result bolsters Midtjylland's campaign while highlighting Sønderjyske's need for improved efficiency under pressure.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Result exhibited minimal structural deviation of 2.6% in favor of FC Midtjylland.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing expected goals data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable from absent data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Bæk
J. Bæk
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.98
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.17
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
F. Svendsen
F. Svendsen
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.98
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.17
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
J. Mastrup
J. Mastrup
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.98
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.17
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
M. Kristoffersen
M. Kristoffersen
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.98
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.17
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Sønderjyske Fodbold T. Nørgaard
T. Nørgaard
VS
FC Midtjylland M. Tullberg
M. Tullberg
1.53
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.93
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Brøndby IF Rank: L
Viborg FF Rank: L
FC Midtjylland Rank: D
Nordsjælland Rank: L
AGF Rank: D
Odense BK Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
AGF Rank: W
Brøndby IF Rank: W
Sønderjyske Fodbold Rank: D
Viborg FF Rank: D
Nordsjælland Rank: L
Brøndby IF Rank: D
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 10 - 24
24

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sønderjyske Fodbold
0.19%
Draw
2.38%
Away FC Midtjylland
97.43%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
23.57
37.64
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sønderjyske Fodbold
FC Midtjylland
Power Score
23.57
37.64
League Position
6
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sønderjyske Fodbold — Opponent-weighted form score
FC Midtjylland — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sønderjyske Fodbold FC Midtjylland

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sønderjyske Fodbold

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

FC Midtjylland

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sønderjyske Fodbold ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Midtjylland
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.13
32.58
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.58
24.13
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sønderjyske Fodbold -0.79 Efficiency Index
vs
FC Midtjylland +0.79 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sønderjyske Fodbold
FC Midtjylland
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sønderjyske Fodbold ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Midtjylland
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sønderjyske Fodbold FC Midtjylland
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sønderjyske Fodbold FC Midtjylland
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sønderjyske Fodbold
FC Midtjylland
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sønderjyske Fodbold
vs
FC Midtjylland
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sønderjyske Fodbold FC Midtjylland
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sønderjyske Fodbold 0.24
FC Midtjylland 0.23
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sønderjyske Fodbold FC Midtjylland
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sønderjyske Fodbold 0.03
FC Midtjylland 0.03
Sønderjyske Fodbold
FC Midtjylland
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FCM had peak pressure around 78'.
  • SON started the game with stronger pressure.
SON Pressure FCM Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FCM reached the top pressure at 78' (61.46).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 46 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sønderjyske Fodbold SON Home
46 matches
FC Midtjylland FCM Away
Match Record
12
Wins
24
10
Draws
10
24
Losses
12
Goals
61
Goals Scored
82
82
Goals Conceded
61
-21
Goal Difference
+21
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-24T00:02:32+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch
B. Pená
Denmark
27 B. Pená
A. Oggesen
Substitution
Denmark
22 A. Oggesen
M. Soulas
France
12 M. Soulas
D. Grétarsson
Iceland
4 D. Grétarsson
C. Duru
Substitution
Nigeria
23 C. Duru
R. Vinderslev
Denmark
6 R. Vinderslev
T. Sommer
Denmark
26 T. Sommer
A. Lyng
Substitution
Denmark
11 A. Lyng
S. Emini
Substitution
Macedonia
7 S. Emini
O. Hyseni
Denmark
24 O. Hyseni
M. Hoppe
Substitution
United States
9 M. Hoppe
E. Olafsson
Iceland
16 E. Olafsson
M. Bech Sørensen
Denmark
22 M. Bech Sørensen
M. Erlić
Croatia
6 M. Erlić
H. Lee
South Korea
3 H. Lee
P. da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
29 P. da Silva
P. Bravo Landazuri
Colombia
19 P. Bravo Landazuri
D. Castillo
Ecuador
21 D. Castillo
D. Osorio Osorio
Substitution
Chile
11 D. Osorio Osorio
D. Simsir
Substitution
Denmark
58 D. Simsir
E. Chilufya
Substitution
Zambia
14 E. Chilufya
K. Cho
South Korea
10 K. Cho

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 23, 2026, 06:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark · Round 6 · Championship Round
Stadium
Sydbank Park
Capacity
10000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jonas Bæk
Frederik Svendsen
Jakob Mastrup
Mads-Kristoffer Kristoffersen

Statistics

Possession
SON
41%
FCM
59%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 1
2 Shots 8
33 Dangerous attacks 71
40 Possession 60
3 Corners 8
16 Free kicks 14
1 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 4
2 Injuries 0
79 Ball Safe 75
4 Goal Attempts 8
57 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53
18 Throwins 28
13 Goal Kicks 2
7 Dribble Attempts 32
4 Successful Dribbles 17
0 Hit Woodwork 2
1 Assists 0

Attacking

50 Attacks 133
2 Big Chances Missed 0
1 Counter Attacks 0

Possession

50 Long Passes 68
25 Successful Long Passes 34
70 Successful Passes Percentage 80
3 Key Passes 10
200 Successful Passes 337
286 Passes 422
50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50

Defensive

9 Interceptions 11
64 Duels Won 53
24 Tackles 11
3 Saves 3

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 25
1 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
14 Fouls 16

Lineup

Referee : Mads-Kristoffer Kristoffersen

Starting XI ▼

27
B. Pená
B. Pená Goalkeeper
6.62
4
Daníel Leó Grétarsson
Daníel Leó Grétarsson Defender
7
12
M. Soulas
M. Soulas Defender
7.04
22
A. Oggesen
A. Oggesen Defender
6.83
28
A. Pedersen
A. Pedersen
Midfielder72'
6.47
23
E. Duru
E. Duru Defender
6.47
13
D. Wilkins
D. Wilkins
Defender72'
6.56
6
R. Vinderslev
R. Vinderslev Midfielder
6.69
7
S. Emini
S. Emini Midfielder
6.64
34
Elias Petersen
Elias Petersen
Midfielder87'
11
A. Lyng
A. Lyng Midfielder
6.74
20
T. Klysner
T. Klysner
Attacker68'
6.58
24
O. Hyseni
O. Hyseni Midfielder
6.67
26
T. Sommer
T. Sommer Midfielder
7.02
9
M. Hoppe
M. Hoppe Attacker
6.72
15
Lirim Qamili
Lirim Qamili
Attacker67'
6.7
Referee : Mads-Kristoffer Kristoffersen

Starting XI ▼

16
Elías Ólafsson
Elías Ólafsson Goalkeeper
7.07
3
Han-beom Lee
Han-beom Lee Defender
6.85
6
Martin Erlić
Martin Erlić Defender
6.83
22
Mads Bech Sørensen
Mads Bech Sørensen Defender
6.97
11
Darío Osorio
Darío Osorio Midfielder
7.34
43
Kevin Mbabu
Kevin Mbabu
Defender77'
6.6
19
Pedro Bravo
Pedro Bravo Midfielder
6.67
21
Denil Castillo
Denil Castillo Midfielder
6.98
29
Paulinho
Paulinho Midfielder
6.75
55
Victor Bak
Victor Bak
Defender46'
6.79
10
Gue-sung Cho
Gue-sung Cho Attacker
6.69
14
Edward Chilufya
Edward Chilufya Attacker
6.48
8
Philip Billing
Philip Billing
Midfielder59'
7.2
58
Aral Şimşir
Aral Şimşir Attacker
7.42
41
Mikel Gogorza
Mikel Gogorza
Attacker89'
6.75

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Mikel Gogorza
Simulation / 5th Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Kevin Mbabu
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
89'
Event
Mikel Gogorza → Aral Şimşir
9th Substitution
Event
Elias Petersen → S. Emini
8th Substitution
87'
Event
Thomas Norgaard
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
85'
78'
Event
Philip Billing
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
77'
Event
Kevin Mbabu → Darío Osorio
7th Substitution
Event
A. Pedersen → A. Oggesen
5th Substitution
72'
Event
D. Wilkins → E. Duru
6th Substitution
72'
Event
T. Klysner → A. Lyng
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Lirim Qamili → M. Hoppe
3rd Substitution
67'
59'
Event
Philip Billing → Edward Chilufya
2nd Substitution
49'
Event
Daníel Leó Grétarsson
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
48'
Event
Han-beom Lee
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
48'
Event
6th Yellowcard
46'
Event
Victor Bak → Paulinho
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
M. Hoppe
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
45+1'
Event
M. Hoppe
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
40'
24'
Event
Edward Chilufya
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

FC Midtjylland's 1-2 triumph over Sønderjyske Fodbold reinforces their position as the superior side, leveraging 60% possession into a hard-fought win after a level 1-1 halftime. The visitors' second-half precision proved decisive against a gritty home defense that matched them early. With no red cards or structural upheavals, the minimal 2.6% deviation highlights a clean execution of expected dominance. Sønderjyske's lower possession limited breakthroughs, exposing areas for refinement. Midtjylland's consistency in efficiency and alignment with forecasts signals momentum, while the hosts must address second-half vulnerabilities to climb the table. This encounter exemplifies tactical discipline prevailing over home advantage.

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