SK Poltava vs Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Stadion Zirka
Today - 12:30 PM
Premier League
SK Poltava
SK Poltava
3
–
3
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Full Time
Today
12:30 PM
Round 26 ·
Regular Season
Igor Kotsyumaka - 8'
Danyil Sukhoruchko - 11'
V. Sad - 16'
|
Carlos Paraco - 2'
Assane Seck - 7'
Bar Lin - 85'
Volodymyr Vilivald - 90+6'
SK Poltava vs Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.
STANDINGS
Loading standings...
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: May 1
CONTEXT
In a thrilling Ukrainian Premier League encounter, SK Poltava hosted Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih, ending in an exhilarating 3-3 draw. Poltava surged ahead with a dominant first half, netting three goals to Kryvbas's two, despite holding only 41% possession. Kryvbas, considered the stronger side, controlled the ball with 59% possession but trailed 3-2 at halftime. The second half saw Kryvbas mount a comeback, equalizing late to salvage a point. No red cards disrupted play, and the match featured no major tactical adjustments. This result marked a significant deviation from expectations, where Kryvbas was favored heavily. Poltava's efficiency in front of goal contrasted with their lower possession, highlighting their clinical finishing. The draw leaves both teams with mixed feelings, Poltava for dropping a lead and Kryvbas for not securing victory despite dominance.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: The 3-3 draw represented a 78.2% structural deviation, significant for favored Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih.
-
Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with pre-match assessments.
-
xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment assessment with outcome.
-
Market alignment: Outcome did not align with pre-match market expectations.
-
xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to missing data.
-
Event impact: No key events like second-half adjustments impacted the final score.
-
Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
I. Paskhal
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
16.85
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.74
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.26
P. Matviychenko
VS
P. van Leeuwen
0.4
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.4
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kolos Kovalivka
Rank: 53
L
Obolon'-Brovar
Rank: 41
D
Polissya Zhytomyr
Rank: 61
L
Oleksandria
Rank: 44
D
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Rank: 52
L
Karpaty
Rank: 55
L
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dynamo Kyiv
Rank: 65
L
Rukh Vynnyky
Rank: 45
W
Kudrivka
Rank: 42
W
LNZ Cherkasy
Rank: 58
L
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Rank: 46
W
Polissya Zhytomyr
Rank: 62
L
0
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
SK Poltava
18.55%
Draw
21.78%
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
59.67%
Movement
Changes since opening
SK Poltava
+13.19%
Draw
-65.85%
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
+52.66%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
35.43
56.17
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
SK Poltava
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Power Score
35.43
56.17
League Position
16
7
Global Rank
1191
607
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
SK Poltava
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
SK Poltava Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
SK Poltava
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
SK Poltava
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
SK Poltava
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
SK Poltava
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
SK Poltava
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
SK Poltava
vs
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Attack After Winning
Possession transition → offence
SK Poltava
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Goals per Match
Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Shots per Match
Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Dangerous Attacks
Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match.
↑ better
—
Transition Efficiency Index
Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition.
Higher = stronger on the counter
SK Poltava
0.00
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
0.00
Defence After Losing
Possession loss → defensive exposure
SK Poltava
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Goals Conceded
Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Shots Conceded
Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded
Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match.
↓ better
—
Vulnerability Index
Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks.
Lower = better transition defence
SK Poltava
0.00
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
0.00
SK Poltava
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- SK Poltava had peak pressure around 22'.
- SK Poltava started the game with stronger pressure.
SK Poltava Pressure
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index:
SK Poltava reached the top pressure at 22' (51.61).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
SK Poltava
SK Poltava
Home
1
matches
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
2
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
2
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-05-01T12:01:05+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
4-2-3-1
Match Formation
4-3-3
1 M. Minchev
12 A. Savenkov
5 V. Pidlepych
33 O. Veremiienko
95 I. Kotsyumaka
D. Plakhtyr
#4488'
21 A. Doroshenko
15 V. Danilenko
8 V. Odariuk
B. Kobzar
#9381'
10 V. Sad
88
88
M. Marusich
#1481'
38 D. Sukhoruchko
12 O. Kemkin
55 J. Nyabeye Dibango
3 C. Rojas Torres
4 V. Volodymyr
2 J. Jurčec
18 B. Lin
V. Mulyk
#2486'
8 Y. Shevchenko
94 M. Zaderaka
7 G. Mendoza Barrios
9 C. Paraco González
G. Herbert
#1067'
14 A. Seck
General Information
Date & Time
May 01, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 26 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Zirka
Capacity
13667
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Igor Paskhal
Next Match
SK Poltava
vs
Shakhtar Donetsk
League: Premier League
Kickoff: Sun, 10 May - 12:30 PM
Venue: Stadion Zirka
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
vs
Karpaty
League: Premier League
Kickoff: Fri, 8 May - 10:00 AM
Venue: Stadion Hirnyk
Statistics
Possession
SK Poltava
45%
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
55%
Top Statistics
3
Goals
3
7
Shots
8
28
Dangerous attacks
46
41
Possession
59
1
Corners
7
7
Free kicks
5
3
Yellow Cards
1
Match Overview
2
Assists
3
3
Substitutions
2
Attacking
91
Attacks
90
Defensive
1
Saves
2
Discipline
2
Fouls
3
Lineup
Referee :
Igor Paskhal
Manager ▼
P. Matviychenko
Coach
Starting XI ▼
1
Mykyta Minchev
Goalkeeper
6.67
5
Vadim Pidlepych
Defender
6.1 12
Andriy Savenkov
Defender
6.12 33
Oleg Veremiyenko
Defender
6.07 95
Igor Kotsyumaka
Defender
8
Volodymyr Odaryuk
Midfielder
6.33 15
Vladyslav Danylenko
Midfielder
6.38
21
A. Doroshenko
Midfielder
6.46 44Dmytro Plakhtyr
6.35Midfielder88'
10
V. Sad
Attacker
93Bogdan Kobzar
Attacker81'
6.46
38
Danyil Sukhoruchko
Attacker
14Maksym Marusych
6.48Attacker81'
88
Alexander Vivdych
Attacker
Substitutes ▼
96
Daniil Yermolov
Goalkeeper
5.88 20
Yevgen Misyura
Defender
6.08 11
O. Piatov
Midfielder
6.29 22
Rostyslav Prokopenko
Midfielder
52
Ziniar Hlib
Attacker
Referee :
Igor Paskhal
Manager ▼
P. van Leeuwen
Coach
Starting XI ▼
12
Oleksandr Kemkin
Goalkeeper
6.33 2
Jan Jurcec
Defender
6.3
3
Carlos Rojas
Defender
6.33 4
Volodymyr Vilivald
Defender
55
Yvan Dibango
Defender
6.49 7
Gleiker Mendoza
Midfielder
7 8
Yaroslav Shevchenko
Midfielder
6.55 24Volodymyr Mulyk
6.47Attacker86'
14
Assane Seck
Midfielder
10Giovany Herbert
6.39Attacker67'
18
Bar Lin
Midfielder
94
Maksym Zaderaka
Midfielder
6.55 9
Carlos Paraco
Attacker
Substitutes ▼
23
Danylo Sychov
Goalkeeper
30
Volodymyr Makhankov
Goalkeeper
6.1 5
Ante Bekavac
Defender
6.19 15
Joseph Jones
Defender
6.74 16
Thiago Isabel Nascimento Borges
Defender
19
Yevgen Mayakov
Defender
6.34 21
Oleksandr Kamenskyi
Midfielder
6.57 25
Tymur Butenko
Midfielder
6.43 28
Jhoel Maya
Midfielder
6.63 20
Matviy Bodnar
Attacker
6.43
Events
2ND-HALF
90+9'
Carlos Rojas
Var
90+6'
Volodymyr Vilivald
Right foot shot / 7th Goal
90+5'
Volodymyr Vilivald
Video review / Goal Disallowed
Bogdan Kobzar
4th Yellowcard
90+3'
Mykyta Minchev
3rd Yellowcard
90+2'
Dmytro Plakhtyr → A. Doroshenko
5th Substitution
88'
86'
Volodymyr Mulyk → Yaroslav Shevchenko
4th Substitution
85'
Bar Lin
Right foot shot / 6th Goal
Maksym Marusych → Danyil Sukhoruchko
3rd Substitution
81'
Bogdan Kobzar → V. Sad
2nd Substitution
81'
67'
Giovany Herbert → Assane Seck
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
29'
Jan Jurcec
2nd Yellowcard
V. Sad
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
16'
Vladyslav Danylenko
1st Yellowcard
12'
Danyil Sukhoruchko
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
11'
Igor Kotsyumaka
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
8'
7'
Assane Seck
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
2'
Carlos Paraco
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
CONCLUSION
SK Poltava's first-half blitz gave them a 3-2 halftime lead, but Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih's possession edge paid off with a second-half equalizer for a 3-3 draw. Despite being the stronger team with 59% possession, Kryvbas failed to convert dominance into victory, resulting in a significant deviation from expectations. Poltava's efficiency shone through limited ball control, securing a valuable point. This high-scoring affair showcased attacking intent from both sides, with no disciplinary issues. The result underscores Poltava's resilience at home while exposing Kryvbas's vulnerability under pressure.
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Match Commentary