Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polissya Zhytomyr Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Arena L'viv Mon, 20 Apr - 3:00 PM
Premier League
Shakhtar Donetsk SHK
1 Winner 0
Polissya Zhytomyr Polissya Zhytomyr
Full Time Mon, 20 Apr 3:00 PM
Round 24 Regular Season
Valeriy Bondar - 56'
Goal
|

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polissya Zhytomyr preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

Shakhtar Donetsk clinched a narrow 1-0 victory against Polissya Zhytomyr in a closely fought Premier League encounter. The first half finished goalless, with both sides holding 50% possession in a tactical stalemate that saw few clear chances. Shakhtar, recognized as the stronger team, finally broke through in the second half with a clinical finish, securing the three points. Polissya defended resiliently but couldn't muster a response, highlighting Shakhtar's superior quality under pressure. The even split in possession underscored the match's balance, yet Shakhtar's efficiency in key moments made the difference. No red cards disrupted play, allowing a pure test of skill and strategy. This result reinforces Shakhtar's dominance while exposing Polissya's grit in containing the favorites.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Shakhtar Donetsk recorded a significant 43.5% structural deviation.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable for analysis.
  • Event impact: No notable events altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
V. Kopievskiy
V. Kopievskiy
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.91
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
S. Shlonchak
S. Shlonchak
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.91
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
O. Kalyonov
O. Kalyonov
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.91
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
V. Nyzhnyk
V. Nyzhnyk
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.91
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Shakhtar Donetsk A. Turan
A. Turan
VS
Polissya Zhytomyr R. Rotan
R. Rotan
2.54
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.14
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: D
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: W
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Rank: W
Oleksandria Rank: W
Veres Rank: W
Karpaty Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
SK Poltava Rank: W
Veres Rank: D
Kudrivka Rank: W
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Rank: W
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: L
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 2 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Shakhtar Donetsk
56.46%
Draw
25.8%
Away Polissya Zhytomyr
17.74%

Movement

Changes since opening
Shakhtar Donetsk
-40.06%
Draw
+22.96%
Polissya Zhytomyr
+17.1%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
39.66
35.52
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Shakhtar Donetsk
Polissya Zhytomyr
Power Score
39.66
35.52
League Position
1
3
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Shakhtar Donetsk — Opponent-weighted form score
Polissya Zhytomyr — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Shakhtar Donetsk Polissya Zhytomyr

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Shakhtar Donetsk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Polissya Zhytomyr

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Shakhtar Donetsk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Polissya Zhytomyr
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
15.90
13.50
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
13.50
15.90
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Shakhtar Donetsk +0.24 Efficiency Index
vs
Polissya Zhytomyr -0.24 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Shakhtar Donetsk
Polissya Zhytomyr
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Shakhtar Donetsk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Polissya Zhytomyr
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Shakhtar Donetsk Polissya Zhytomyr
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Shakhtar Donetsk Polissya Zhytomyr
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Shakhtar Donetsk
Polissya Zhytomyr
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Shakhtar Donetsk
vs
Polissya Zhytomyr
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Shakhtar Donetsk Polissya Zhytomyr
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Shakhtar Donetsk 0.15
Polissya Zhytomyr 0.14
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Shakhtar Donetsk Polissya Zhytomyr
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Shakhtar Donetsk 0.00
Polissya Zhytomyr 0.03
Shakhtar Donetsk
Polissya Zhytomyr
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SHK had peak pressure around 78'.
  • Polissya Zhytomyr started the game with stronger pressure.
SHK Pressure Polissya Zhytomyr Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SHK reached the top pressure at 78' (57.72).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Shakhtar Donetsk SHK Home
5 matches
Polissya Zhytomyr Polissya Zhytomyr Away
Match Record
0
Wins
3
2
Draws
2
3
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
0
-4
Goal Difference
+4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-21T00:00:55+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
D. Riznyk
Ukraine
31 D. Riznyk
Y. Konoplia
Ukraine
26 Y. Konoplia
V. Bondar
Ukraine
5 V. Bondar
M. Matviyenko
Ukraine
22 M. Matviyenko
P. Azevedo Pereira
Brazil
13 P. Azevedo Pereira
O. Ocheretko
Ukraine
27 O. Ocheretko
A. Santana Lopes da Fonseca
Substitution
Brazil
30 A. Santana Lopes da Fonseca
M. Gomes Claudino
Brazil
6 M. Gomes Claudino
I. Severino Silva
Substitution
14 I. Severino Silva
E. de Sousa Lemos
Substitution
Brazil
7 E. de Sousa Lemos
L. Traore
Substitution
Burkina Faso
2 L. Traore
E. Volynets
Ukraine
23 E. Volynets
B. Krushynskyi
Substitution
Ukraine
55 B. Krushynskyi
E. Sarapiy
Ukraine
5 E. Sarapiy
S. Chobotenko
Ukraine
44 S. Chobotenko
B. Mykhaylichenko
Ukraine
15 B. Mykhaylichenko
L. Emërllahu
Substitution
Kosovo
14 L. Emërllahu
R. Babenko
Ukraine
8 R. Babenko
O. Andrievsky
Substitution
Ukraine
18 O. Andrievsky
O. Nazarenko
Substitution
Ukraine
7 O. Nazarenko
I. Krasnopir
Substitution
Ukraine
95 I. Krasnopir
O. Hutsuliak
Ukraine
11 O. Hutsuliak

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 20, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 24 · Regular Season
Stadium
Arena L'viv
Capacity
34915
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Viktor Kopievskiy
Semen Shlonchak
Oleksandr Kalyonov
Viktor Nyzhnyk

Statistics

Possession
SHK
51%
Polissya Zhytomyr
49%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Shots 2
39 Dangerous attacks 35
50 Possession 50
4 Corners 1
8 Free kicks 6
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

8 Goal Kicks 3
5 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 0

Attacking

97 Attacks 108

Defensive

0 Saves 1

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
12 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Viktor Kopievskiy

Starting XI ▼

31
Dmytro Riznyk
Dmytro Riznyk Goalkeeper
6.38
5
Valeriy Bondar
Valeriy Bondar Defender
6.56
13
Pedro Henrique
Pedro Henrique Defender
6.73
22
Mykola Matvienko
Mykola Matvienko Defender
6.54
26
Yukhym Konoplya
Yukhym Konoplya Defender
6.49
6
Marlon Gomes
Marlon Gomes Midfielder
6.5
14
Isaque
Isaque Midfielder
6.57
29
Yegor Nazaryna
Yegor Nazaryna
Midfielder88'
6.74
27
Oleg Ocheretko
Oleg Ocheretko Midfielder
6.53
30
Alisson
Alisson Midfielder
6.77
37
Lucas Ferreira
Lucas Ferreira
Midfielder70'
6.5
2
Lassina Traoré
Lassina Traoré Attacker
7.08
19
Kauã Elias
Kauã Elias
Attacker80'
6.65
7
Eguinaldo
Eguinaldo Attacker
6.85
11
Newerton
Newerton
Midfielder70'
6.66
Referee : Viktor Kopievskiy

Starting XI ▼

23
Yevgen Volynets
Yevgen Volynets Goalkeeper
6.55
5
Eduard Sarapiy
Eduard Sarapiy Defender
6.62
15
Bogdan Mykhaylichenko
Bogdan Mykhaylichenko Defender
6.5
44
Sergiy Chobotenko
Sergiy Chobotenko Defender
6.53
7
Oleksandr Nazarenko
Oleksandr Nazarenko Midfielder
6.6
45
Maksym Bragaru
Maksym Bragaru
Midfielder62'
6.66
8
Ruslan Babenko
Ruslan Babenko Midfielder
6.59
11
Oleksiy Gutsulyak
Oleksiy Gutsulyak Midfielder
6.94
14
Lindon Emërllahu
Lindon Emërllahu Midfielder
6.69
27
Oleg Fedor
Oleg Fedor
Midfielder46'
6.46
18
Oleksandr Andriyevskyi
Oleksandr Andriyevskyi Midfielder
6.59
16
Ilir Krasniqi
Ilir Krasniqi
Defender81'
6.68
55
Borys Krushynskyi
Borys Krushynskyi Midfielder
6.56
31
Giorgi Maisuradze
Giorgi Maisuradze
Defender21'
6.57
95
Igor Krasnopir
Igor Krasnopir Attacker
6.55
89
Mykola Gayduchyk
Mykola Gayduchyk
Attacker62'
6.7

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Oleg Ocheretko
2nd Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Yegor Nazaryna → Isaque
9th Substitution
88'
84'
Event
Maksym Bragaru
1st Yellowcard
81'
Event
Ilir Krasniqi → Oleksandr Andriyevskyi
8th Substitution
Event
Kauã Elias → Lassina Traoré
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Newerton → Eguinaldo
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Lucas Ferreira → Alisson
5th Substitution
70'
62'
Event
Maksym Bragaru → Oleksandr Nazarenko
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Mykola Gayduchyk → Igor Krasnopir
4th Substitution
Event
Valeriy Bondar
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
56'
46'
Event
Oleg Fedor → Lindon Emërllahu
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
21'
Event
Giorgi Maisuradze → Borys Krushynskyi
1st Substitution

CONCLUSION

Shakhtar Donetsk's 1-0 triumph over Polissya Zhytomyr underscores their edge as the stronger outfit, converting second-half pressure into victory after a goalless, evenly possessed first half. The narrow scoreline reflects Polissya's stubborn resistance, yet Shakhtar's precision prevailed without disciplinary interruptions. This performance, showing significant structural deviation but market alignment, highlights tactical discipline and efficiency. Shakhtar builds momentum, while Polissya gains valuable experience from holding firm. The clean contest promises positive momentum for both in upcoming fixtures.

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

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