Sassuolo vs AC Milan Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore Sun, 3 May - 1:00 PM
Serie A
Sassuolo SAS
Versus
AC Milan MIL
KICKOFF : Sun, 3 May - 1:00 PM
Round 35 Regular Season

Sassuolo vs AC Milan preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

CONTEXT

Sassuolo host AC Milan in Serie A (Regular Season) at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore. Domestically, Sassuolo sit 10th in the table while AC Milan are 3th. Power ranking favours AC Milan by 22.6 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: AC Milan possesses a 22.6-point power advantage with an 84.86 score over Sassuolo's 62.31.
  • Form: Sassuolo holds a stronger recent form score of 21.33 compared to AC Milan's 13.33.
  • Squad: AC Milan sits third in Serie A while Sassuolo occupies tenth place.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for both teams in this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition metrics unavailable; matchup focuses on power and form disparities.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece data unavailable due to low confidence and proxy usage for both sides.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables unavailable as add-on not enabled.
  • Market: Sassuolo 21.2% (Δ+0%) | Draw 23.5% (Δ+0%) | AC Milan 55.3% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Sassuolo F. Grosso
F. Grosso
VS
AC Milan M. Allegri
M. Allegri
1.32
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.92
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fiorentina Rank: 77 D
Como Rank: 83 W
Genoa Rank: 73 L
Cagliari Rank: 70 W
Juventus Rank: 86 D
Bologna Rank: 78 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Juventus Rank: 85 D
Hellas Verona Rank: 63 W
Udinese Rank: 74 L
Napoli Rank: 86 L
Torino Rank: 75 W
Lazio Rank: 81 L
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 5 - 13
13
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sassuolo
21.24%
Draw
23.49%
Away AC Milan
55.27%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.31
84.86
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sassuolo
AC Milan
Power Score
62.31
84.86
League Position
10
3
Global Rank
111
35

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sassuolo — Opponent-weighted form score
AC Milan — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sassuolo AC Milan

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 25 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sassuolo SAS Home
25 matches
AC Milan MIL Away
Match Record
7
Wins
13
5
Draws
5
13
Losses
7
Goals
37
Goals Scored
48
48
Goals Conceded
37
-11
Goal Difference
+11
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-01T00:56:43+00:00

STARTING XI

Pitch
S. Turati
Italy
13 S. Turati
S. Walukiewicz
Poland
6 S. Walukiewicz
J. Idzes
Netherlands
21 J. Idzes
T. Muharemovic
Bosnia and Herzegovina
80 T. Muharemovic
U. Garcia Lopes
Switzerland
23 U. Garcia Lopes
I. Koné
Canada
90 I. Koné
N. Matić
Serbia
18 N. Matić
K. Thorstvedt
Norway
42 K. Thorstvedt
C. Volpato
Italy
7 C. Volpato
A. Pinamonti
Italy
99 A. Pinamonti
A. Lauriente
France
45 A. Lauriente
M. Maignan
France
16 M. Maignan
S. Pavlović
Serbia
31 S. Pavlović
M. Gabbia
Italy
46 M. Gabbia
F. Tomori
England
23 F. Tomori
D. Bartesaghi
Italy
33 D. Bartesaghi
A. Rabiot
France
12 A. Rabiot
S. Ricci
Italy
4 S. Ricci
Y. Fofana
France
19 Y. Fofana
A. Saelemaekers
Belgium
56 A. Saelemaekers
R. Conceição Leão
Portugal
10 R. Conceição Leão
C. Pulisic
United States
11 C. Pulisic

General Information

Date & Time
May 03, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore
Capacity
21584
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Fabio Maresca
Giorgio Peretti
Livio Marinelli
Filippo Bercigli

Lineup

Referee : Fabio Maresca

Starting XI ▼

13
Stefano Turati
Stefano Turati Goalkeeper
6.99
6
Sebastian Walukiewicz
Sebastian Walukiewicz Defender
6.69
21
Jay Idzes
Jay Idzes Defender
6.69
23
Ulisses Garcia
Ulisses Garcia Defender
6.71
80
Tarik Muharemović
Tarik Muharemović Defender
6.95
18
Nemanja Matic
Nemanja Matic Midfielder
6.82
42
Kristian Thorstvedt
Kristian Thorstvedt Midfielder
6.91
90
Ismaël Koné
Ismaël Koné Midfielder
6.83
7
Cristian Volpato
Cristian Volpato Attacker
6.84
45
Armand Laurienté
Armand Laurienté Attacker
6.98
99
Andrea Pinamonti
Andrea Pinamonti Attacker
6.75
Referee : Fabio Maresca

Starting XI ▼

16
Mike Maignan
Mike Maignan Goalkeeper
7.1
23
Fikayo Tomori
Fikayo Tomori Defender
6.98
31
Strahinja Pavlović
Strahinja Pavlović Defender
6.98
46
Matteo Gabbia
Matteo Gabbia Defender
6.91
4
Samuele Ricci
Samuele Ricci Midfielder
6.81
12
Adrien Rabiot
Adrien Rabiot Midfielder
7.29
19
Youssouf Fofana
Youssouf Fofana Midfielder
6.83
33
Davide Bartesaghi
Davide Bartesaghi Midfielder
6.96
56
Alexis Saelemaekers
Alexis Saelemaekers Midfielder
7.14
10
Rafael Leão
Rafael Leão Attacker
7.04
11
Christian Pulisic
Christian Pulisic Attacker
7.12

CONCLUSION

AC Milan's structural superiority and higher league position make them favorites to secure victory at Sassuolo's MAPEI Stadium. Despite Sassuolo's edge in recent form, Milan's 22.6-point power lead suggests dominance in key phases like build-up and transitions. Home advantage may fuel an early push from the Neroverdi, but the Rossoneri's squad depth should prevail in a controlled affair. Expect Milan to edge a competitive contest, capitalizing on efficiency where data allows, while set pieces remain a wildcard without specifics. This result bolsters Milan's top-tier ambitions.

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Serie A, Italy View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ