Rukh Vynnyky vs Karpaty Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Arena L'viv Sat, 25 Apr - 3:00 PM
Premier League
Rukh Vynnyky Rukh Vynnyky
0 Winner 3
Karpaty Karpaty
Full Time Sat, 25 Apr 3:00 PM
Round 25 Regular Season
|
Goal
Yan Kostenko - 32'
Ambrosiy Chachua - 44'
Jean Pedroso - 56'

Rukh Vynnyky vs Karpaty preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

In a one-sided Ukrainian Premier League encounter, Rukh Vynnyky suffered a 0-3 home defeat to Karpaty, who asserted dominance from the outset. Karpaty raced into a 0-2 halftime lead with clinical finishing, then sealed the victory with a third goal after the break. Despite enjoying 53% possession, Rukh Vynnyky generated few clear opportunities and failed to test the away defense meaningfully. Karpaty, recognized as the stronger outfit, controlled the tempo efficiently without concessions. The match unfolded without red cards or notable second-half tactical shifts, highlighting Karpaty's superior execution. This result underscores a significant structural deviation favoring the visitors, aligning with their pre-match favoritism while exposing Rukh's inefficiencies in chance creation and conversion.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Karpaty delivered a significant 45.2% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with expectations throughout the match.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented assessment of outcome alignment.
  • Market alignment: The final result aligned fully with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to absent metrics.
  • Event impact: No key events or adjustments altered the match's trajectory.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant zero distortion to the scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
O. Kogut
O. Kogut
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.98
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
O. Berkut
O. Berkut
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.98
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
V. Matyash
V. Matyash
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.98
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
S. Prychyna
S. Prychyna
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.98
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Rukh Vynnyky I. Fedyk
I. Fedyk
VS
Karpaty F. Fernández Díaz
F. Fernández Díaz
0.93
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.47
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Rank: L
Kolos Kovalivka Rank: D
Shakhtar Donetsk Rank: L
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: L
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: L
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: D
Oleksandria Rank: W
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: W
Obolon'-Brovar Rank: W
SK Poltava Rank: W
Kudrivka Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rukh Vynnyky
17.74%
Draw
27.44%
Away Karpaty
54.82%

Movement

Changes since opening
Rukh Vynnyky
+16.3%
Draw
+25.54%
Karpaty
-41.84%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
13.64
27.66
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rukh Vynnyky
Karpaty
Power Score
13.64
27.66
League Position
14
8
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rukh Vynnyky — Opponent-weighted form score
Karpaty — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rukh Vynnyky Karpaty

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rukh Vynnyky

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Karpaty

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rukh Vynnyky ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Karpaty
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
16.89
23.94
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.94
16.89
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rukh Vynnyky -0.71 Efficiency Index
vs
Karpaty +0.71 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rukh Vynnyky
Karpaty
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rukh Vynnyky ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Karpaty
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rukh Vynnyky Karpaty
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rukh Vynnyky Karpaty
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rukh Vynnyky
Karpaty
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Rukh Vynnyky
vs
Karpaty
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Rukh Vynnyky Karpaty
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Rukh Vynnyky 0.10
Karpaty 0.20
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Rukh Vynnyky Karpaty
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Rukh Vynnyky 0.07
Karpaty 0.00
Rukh Vynnyky
Karpaty
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Rukh Vynnyky had peak pressure around 81'.
  • Rukh Vynnyky started the game with stronger pressure.
Rukh Vynnyky Pressure Karpaty Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Rukh Vynnyky reached the top pressure at 81' (43.22).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rukh Vynnyky Rukh Vynnyky Home
3 matches
Karpaty Karpaty Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
1
-3
Goal Difference
+3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-26T00:05:42+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
Y. Gereta
Ukraine
1 Y. Gereta
V. Roman
Ukraine
93 V. Roman
O. Tovarnytskyi
Ukraine
76 O. Tovarnytskyi
D. Pidgurskyi
Ukraine
15 D. Pidgurskyi
A. Kitela
Ukraine
75 A. Kitela
M. Boyko
Ukraine
56 M. Boyko
O. Prytula
Ukraine
10 O. Prytula
D. Sliusar
Substitution
Ukraine
17 D. Sliusar
T. Brener de Paula
Brazil
30 T. Brener de Paula
K. dos Santos Chrispim
Substitution
Brazil
7 K. dos Santos Chrispim
I. Neves Alves
Substitution
Brazil
9 I. Neves Alves
N. Domchak
Ukraine
1 N. Domchak
R. Lyakh
Substitution
Ukraine
73 R. Lyakh
V. Kholod
Ukraine
44 V. Kholod
J. Carneiro Pedroso
Brazil
47 J. Carneiro Pedroso
D. Miroshnichenko
Ukraine
11 D. Miroshnichenko
M. Sapuga
Substitution
Ukraine
20 M. Sapuga
A. Chachua
Ukraine
8 A. Chachua
Y. Kostenko
Substitution
Ukraine
26 Y. Kostenko
B. Pereira da Silva
Brazil
37 B. Pereira da Silva
X. Alkain Mitxelena
Substitution
Spain
70 X. Alkain Mitxelena
B. Faal
Gambia
99 B. Faal

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 25, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 25 · Regular Season
Stadium
Arena L'viv
Capacity
34915
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Oleg Kogut
Oleksandr Berkut
Viktor Matyash
Sofia Prychyna

Statistics

Possession
Rukh Vynnyky
52%
Karpaty
48%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 3
6 Shots 9
59 Dangerous attacks 45
53 Possession 47
7 Corners 5
6 Free kicks 7
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

75 Attacks 79

Defensive

3 Saves 1

Discipline

15 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Oleg Kogut

Starting XI ▼

1
Yuriy-Volodymyr Gereta
Yuriy-Volodymyr Gereta Goalkeeper
6.28
76
Oleksiy Tovarnytskyi
Oleksiy Tovarnytskyi Defender
6.42
93
Vitaliy Roman
Vitaliy Roman Defender
6.37
7
Klayver
Klayver Midfielder
6.32
70
Nazar Kasarda
Nazar Kasarda
Midfielder73'
6.47
10
Ostap Prytula
Ostap Prytula Midfielder
6.35
15
Denys Pidgurskyi
Denys Pidgurskyi Midfielder
6.43
17
Denys Slyusar
Denys Slyusar Midfielder
6.41
14
Samba Diallo
Samba Diallo
Midfielder59'
6.44
30
Talles
Talles Midfielder
6.36
56
Maksym Boyko
Maksym Boyko Midfielder
6.44
75
Andriy Kitela
Andriy Kitela Midfielder
6.3
9
Igor Neves
Igor Neves Attacker
6.51
—
Igor Neves
87'
Referee : Oleg Kogut

Starting XI ▼

1
Nazar Domchak
Nazar Domchak Goalkeeper
6.68
11
Denys Miroshnichenko
Denys Miroshnichenko Defender
6.41
44
Vitaliy Kholod
Vitaliy Kholod Defender
6.17
47
Jean Pedroso
Jean Pedroso Defender
6.34
73
Rostyslav Lyakh
Rostyslav Lyakh Defender
6.22
3
Volodymyr Adamyuk
Volodymyr Adamyuk
Defender75'
6.46
8
Ambrosiy Chachua
Ambrosiy Chachua Midfielder
6.48
20
Marko Sapuga
Marko Sapuga Midfielder
6.6
15
Valentyn Rubchynskyi
Valentyn Rubchynskyi
Midfielder64'
6.5
26
Yan Kostenko
Yan Kostenko Midfielder
6.61
14
Ilya Kvasnytsya
Ilya Kvasnytsya
Midfielder75'
6.4
37
Bruninho
Bruninho Midfielder
6.77
70
Xeber Alkain
Xeber Alkain Midfielder
6.84
7
Paulo Vitor
Paulo Vitor
Midfielder64'
6.6
99
Baboucarr Faal
Baboucarr Faal Attacker
6.56

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Luiz Jorge Alexandrino de Lima → Igor Neves
9th Substitution
87'
Event
8th Substitution
87'
86'
Event
7th Substitution
Event
Denys Pidgurskyi
3rd Yellowcard
80'
75'
Event
Ilya Kvasnytsya → Yan Kostenko
6th Substitution
75'
Event
Volodymyr Adamyuk → Rostyslav Lyakh
5th Substitution
Event
Nazar Kasarda → Klayver
4th Substitution
73'
64'
Event
Valentyn Rubchynskyi → Marko Sapuga
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Paulo Vitor → Xeber Alkain
3rd Substitution
Event
Samba Diallo  → Denys Slyusar
1st Substitution
59'
56'
Event
Jean Pedroso
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
1ST-HALF
44'
Event
Ambrosiy Chachua
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
32'
Event
Yan Kostenko
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
25'
Event
Rostyslav Lyakh
2nd Yellowcard
Event
Vitaliy Roman
1st Yellowcard
3'

CONCLUSION

Karpaty's 0-3 triumph over Rukh Vynnyky cements their status as the superior force, blending defensive solidity with sharp attacking transitions. Rukh's possession edge proved futile against Karpaty's organized setup, revealing gaps in their forward play. The halftime 0-2 buffer allowed the visitors to manage the second half comfortably, adding a decisive third without undue risk. This outcome reinforces Karpaty's consistency, while Rukh must address conversion woes to compete with top sides. Overall, the performance gap was evident, promising momentum for Karpaty in upcoming fixtures.

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