Roma vs Fiorentina Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Olimpico Mon, 4 May - 6:45 PM
Serie A
Roma ROM
Versus
Fiorentina FIO
KICKOFF : Mon, 4 May - 6:45 PM
Round 35 Regular Season

Roma vs Fiorentina preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

Roma host Fiorentina in Serie A (Regular Season) at Stadio Olimpico. Domestically, Roma sit 6th in the table while Fiorentina are 15th. Power ranking favours Roma by 6.8 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Roma possesses a 6.8-point power score advantage over Fiorentina, marking them as the stronger team.
  • Form: Fiorentina boasts a higher form score of 23.83 compared to Roma's 18.44.
  • Squad: Roma occupies 6th place in Serie A standings, while Fiorentina sits in 15th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition play data is not specified for either team.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats show low confidence with proxy metrics used for Roma and Fiorentina.
  • xVariable: xG data for set pieces is unavailable due to add-on not enabled.
  • Market: Baseline split: Roma 58% (Δ+0%) | Draw 23.4% (Δ+0%) | Fiorentina 18.6% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Roma G. Gasperini
G. Gasperini
VS
Fiorentina P. Vanoli
P. Vanoli
1.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.38
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bologna Rank: 78 W
Atalanta Rank: 85 D
Pisa Rank: 64 W
Inter Rank: 91 L
Lecce Rank: 68 W
Como Rank: 83 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sassuolo Rank: 74 D
Lecce Rank: 67 D
Lazio Rank: 80 W
Hellas Verona Rank: 64 W
Inter Rank: 91 D
Cremonese Rank: 67 W
25
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
25 - 11 - 11
11
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Roma
58.01%
Draw
23.38%
Away Fiorentina
18.61%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
84.35
77.5
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Roma
Fiorentina
Power Score
84.35
77.5
League Position
6
15
Global Rank
36
77

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Roma — Opponent-weighted form score
Fiorentina — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Roma Fiorentina

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 47 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Roma ROM Home
47 matches
Fiorentina FIO Away
Match Record
25
Wins
11
11
Draws
11
11
Losses
25
Goals
77
Goals Scored
63
63
Goals Conceded
77
+14
Goal Difference
-14
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-01T00:59:15+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
M. Svilar
99 M. Svilar
G. Mancini
23 G. Mancini
O. N'Dicka
5 O. N'Dicka
M. Hermoso Canseco
22 M. Hermoso Canseco
D. Rensch
2 D. Rensch
B. Cristante
4 B. Cristante
K. Kone
17 K. Kone
W. França Lima
43 W. França Lima
M. Malvano
18 M. Malvano
N. Pisilli
61 N. Pisilli
D. Malen
14 D. Malen
D. de Gea Quintana
43 D. de Gea Quintana
R. Gosens
21 R. Gosens
L. Ranieri
6 L. Ranieri
M. Pongracic
5 M. Pongracic
D. Cordeiro dos Santos
2 D. Cordeiro dos Santos
C. Ndour
27 C. Ndour
N. Fagioli
44 N. Fagioli
R. Mandragora
8 R. Mandragora
M. Solomon
19 M. Solomon
A. Gudmundsson
10 A. Gudmundsson
J. Harrison
17 J. Harrison

General Information

Date & Time
May 04, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Olimpico
Capacity
72698
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Luca Zufferli
Luigi Rossi
Marco Ceccon
Andrea Rapuano

Expected Lineup

Referee : Luca Zufferli

Starting XI ▼

99
Mile Svilar
Mile Svilar Goalkeeper
7.02
2
Devyne Rensch
Devyne Rensch Midfielder
6.79
18
Matías Soulé
Matías Soulé Midfielder
7.05
43
Wesley
Wesley Midfielder
6.9
61
Niccolò Pisilli
Niccolò Pisilli Midfielder
6.63
14
Donyell Malen
Donyell Malen Centre Forward
7.15
4
Bryan Cristante
Bryan Cristante Central Midfield
6.97
5
Evan Ndicka
Evan Ndicka Centre Back
6.95
22
Mario Hermoso
Mario Hermoso Left Back
6.9
23
Gianluca Mancini
Gianluca Mancini Right Back
6.98
17
Manu Koné
Manu Koné Central Midfield
6.97
Referee : Luca Zufferli

Starting XI ▼

43
David de Gea
David de Gea Goalkeeper
6.83
10
Albert Gudmundsson
Albert Gudmundsson Centre Forward
6.89
17
Jack Harrison
Jack Harrison Attacker
6.71
19
Manor Solomon
Manor Solomon Attacker
7.03
2
Dodô
Dodô Right Back
6.92
6
Luca Ranieri
Luca Ranieri Left Back
6.75
8
Rolando Mandragora
Rolando Mandragora Central Midfield
7.08
27
Cher Ndour
Cher Ndour Central Midfield
6.66
44
Nicolò Fagioli
Nicolò Fagioli Central Midfield
7.25
5
Marin Pongracic
Marin Pongracic Right Back
6.76
21
Robin Gosens
Robin Gosens Left Back
6.84

CONCLUSION

Roma's home venue and power edge position them to control proceedings, yet Fiorentina's superior form score introduces upset potential in this Serie A tilt. With league positions favoring the hosts at 6th versus 15th, structural advantages should aid Roma in maintaining possession and exploiting transitions. Limited set piece insights mean aerial duels may hinge on execution rather than data trends. Squad depth and efficiency gaps remain unclear, but Roma's 6.8-point superiority suggests they dictate tempo. Watch for Fiorentina's resilience to test Roma's defense early, potentially forcing a cagey affair resolved by fine margins.

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

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