Rijeka vs Hajduk Split Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion HNK Rijeka Sun, 26 Apr - 2:00 PM
1. HNL
Rijeka Rijeka
0 – 0
Hajduk Split Hajduk Split
Full Time Sun, 26 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season

Rijeka vs Hajduk Split preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

In a tightly fought Croatian HNL derby at Stadion Rujevica, Rijeka and Hajduk Split played out a 0-0 draw. Rijeka held 58% possession but struggled to create clear scoring opportunities against a disciplined Hajduk defense. The away side, deemed the stronger team pre-match, absorbed pressure effectively without red cards disrupting play. Halftime arrived at 0-0, with both teams even. The match exhibited a significant structural deviation of 71.2% towards Hajduk Split, indicating a notable shift from expected patterns. Pre-match market probabilities placed Rijeka at 37.6%, draw at 28.8%, and Hajduk at 33.6%, with the outcome not aligning. Efficiency stayed in line with norms, though xG data was unavailable for deeper analysis. No second-half adjustments or knockout context altered proceedings.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match registered a significant structural deviation of 71.2% towards Hajduk Split.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, so alignment with outcome undetermined.
  • Market alignment: Outcome not aligned with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events influenced the result.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in no distortion to match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Čulina
A. Čulina
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.95
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.14
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.41
Z. Lovrić
Z. Lovrić
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.95
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.14
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.41
I. Janić
I. Janić
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.95
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.14
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.41
G. Pataki
G. Pataki
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.95
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.14
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.41
Rijeka V. Sánchez del Amo
V. Sánchez del Amo
VS
Hajduk Split G. García García
G. García García
1.48
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.75
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Varaždin Rank: L
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: D
Osijek Rank: L
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: W
Gorica Rank: L
Istra 1961 Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Osijek Rank: L
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: D
Gorica Rank: W
Istra 1961 Rank: W
Vukovar Rank: W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: W
33
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
33 - 21 - 18
18

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rijeka
37.58%
Draw
28.81%
Away Hajduk Split
33.61%

Movement

Changes since opening
Rijeka
+31.39%
Draw
-59.55%
Hajduk Split
+28.15%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
26.78
31.88
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rijeka
Hajduk Split
Power Score
26.78
31.88
League Position
4
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rijeka — Opponent-weighted form score
Hajduk Split — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rijeka Hajduk Split

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rijeka

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Hajduk Split

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rijeka ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hajduk Split
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.38
11.43
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
11.43
26.38
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rijeka +1.52 Efficiency Index
vs
Hajduk Split -1.52 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rijeka
Hajduk Split
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rijeka ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hajduk Split
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rijeka Hajduk Split
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rijeka Hajduk Split
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rijeka
Hajduk Split
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Rijeka
vs
Hajduk Split
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Rijeka Hajduk Split
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Rijeka 0.54
Hajduk Split 0.25
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Rijeka Hajduk Split
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Rijeka 0.00
Hajduk Split 0.00
Rijeka
Hajduk Split
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Rijeka had peak pressure around 95'.
  • Rijeka started the game with stronger pressure.
Rijeka Pressure Hajduk Split Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Rijeka reached the top pressure at 95' (70.94).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 72 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rijeka Rijeka Home
72 matches
Hajduk Split Hajduk Split Away
Match Record
33
Wins
18
21
Draws
21
18
Losses
33
Goals
112
Goals Scored
77
77
Goals Conceded
112
+35
Goal Difference
-35
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:04:37+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
M. Zlomislić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
13 M. Zlomislić
A. Oreč
Croatia
22 A. Oreč
A. Majstorović
Croatia
45 A. Majstorović
S. Radeljić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
6 S. Radeljić
M. Devetak
Substitution
Serbia
34 M. Devetak
B. Pavić
Croatia
66 B. Pavić
A. Barco Del Solar
Peru
55 A. Barco Del Solar
A. Gojak
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
14 A. Gojak
D. Adu-Adjei
England
18 D. Adu-Adjei
T. Dantas
Portugal
26 T. Dantas
D. Čop
Substitution
Croatia
9 D. Čop
T. Silić
Croatia
33 T. Silić
R. Raçi
Kosovo
14 R. Raçi
D. Maresic
Austria
15 D. Maresic
Z. Šarlija
Croatia
31 Z. Šarlija
D. Melnjak
Croatia
17 D. Melnjak
A. Pajaziti
Substitution
Albania
4 A. Pajaziti
N. Sigur
Croatia
8 N. Sigur
R. Brajković
Croatia
28 R. Brajković
R. Pukstas
United States
21 R. Pukstas
I. Almena Horcajo
Substitution
Spain
30 I. Almena Horcajo
M. Livaja
Substitution
Croatia
10 M. Livaja

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 26, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion HNK Rijeka
Capacity
8279
Attendance
7665
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ante Čulina
Zdenko Lovrić
Ivan Janić
Goran Pataki

Statistics

Possession
Rijeka
55%
Hajduk Split
45%

Top Statistics

2 Big Chances Created 2
2 Shots 1
26 Dangerous attacks 16
58 Possession 42
14 Corners 2
13 Free kicks 18
1 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

3 Substitutions 3
1 Hit Woodwork 0
19 Throwins 26
12 Dribble Attempts 11
5 Goal Kicks 9
25 Successful Dribbles Percentage 55
3 Successful Dribbles 6

Attacking

58 Attacks 45
2 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

403 Passes 319
19 Successful Long Passes 20
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 48
41 Long Passes 42
86 Successful Passes Percentage 82
347 Successful Passes 260
13 Key Passes 3

Defensive

34 Duels Won 48
7 Tackles 10
7 Interceptions 2
1 Saves 6

Build-up

12 Accurate Crosses 2
45 Total Crosses 11

Discipline

3 Offsides 1
18 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Ante Čulina

Starting XI ▼

13
Martin Zlomislic
Martin Zlomislic Goalkeeper
6.67
6
Stjepan Radeljic
Stjepan Radeljic Defender
6.93
22
Ante Orec
Ante Orec Defender
7
34
Mladen Devetak
Mladen Devetak Defender
6.63
24
Christian Ouguehi Legbo
Christian Ouguehi Legbo
Attacker83'
6.55
45
Ante Majstorovic
Ante Majstorovic Defender
6.88
14
Amer Gojak
Amer Gojak Midfielder
6.59
23
Justas Lasickas
Justas Lasickas
Defender90'
6.68
18
Daniel Adu-Adjei
Daniel Adu-Adjei Midfielder
6.73
26
Tiago Dantas
Tiago Dantas Midfielder
7.31
55
Alfonso Daniel Barco del Solar
Alfonso Daniel Barco del Solar Midfielder
6.49
66
Branko Pavic
Branko Pavic Midfielder
6.71
9
Duje Cop
Duje Cop Attacker
6.6
77
Ante Matej Juric
Ante Matej Juric
Attacker83'
6.85
Referee : Ante Čulina

Starting XI ▼

33
Toni Silic
Toni Silic Goalkeeper
6.83
14
Ron Raci
Ron Raci Defender
6.88
15
Dario Maresic
Dario Maresic Defender
6.95
31
Zvonimir Sarlija
Zvonimir Sarlija Defender
6.95
4
Adrion Pajaziti
Adrion Pajaziti Midfielder
6.88
26
Adam Guram
Adam Guram
Midfielder81'
6.74
8
Niko Sigur
Niko Sigur Midfielder
6.99
17
Dario Melnjak
Dario Melnjak Midfielder
6.83
28
Roko Brajkovic
Roko Brajkovic Midfielder
6.93
10
Marko Livaja
Marko Livaja Attacker
7.14
7
Anthony Kalik
Anthony Kalik
Midfielder90+3'
6.65
21
Rokas Pukstas
Rokas Pukstas Attacker
7.33
30
Iker Almena
Iker Almena Attacker
6.97
34
Bruno Durdov
Bruno Durdov
Attacker90'
6.64

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Anthony Kalik → Marko Livaja
6th Substitution
Event
Justas Lasickas → Amer Gojak
5th Substitution
90'
90'
Event
Bruno Durdov → Iker Almena
4th Substitution
86'
Event
Roko Brajkovic
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
84'
Event
Iker Almena
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Ante Matej Juric → Duje Cop
2nd Substitution
83'
Event
Christian Ouguehi Legbo → Mladen Devetak
3rd Substitution
83'
81'
Event
Adam Guram → Adrion Pajaziti
1st Substitution
73'
Event
Rokas Pukstas
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Alfonso Daniel Barco del Solar
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
67'
1ST-HALF
25'
Event
Ron Raci
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

The 0-0 draw highlighted defensive solidity over attacking flair, with Rijeka's possession edge failing to yield goals against Hajduk's resilient setup. As the stronger team, Hajduk's point felt like a structural underperformance given the 71.2% deviation, yet market misalignment underscored the unpredictability. Absent xG metrics, analysis relies on possession and event absence, confirming efficiency in line. This result maintains competitive balance in the league, potentially shifting momentum for future fixtures without red card fallout or tactical overhauls.

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

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