Rayo Vallecano vs Levante Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
La Liga
Levante
LVT
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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CONTEXT
The match between Rayo Vallecano and Levante has finished in a 1-1 draw. This final result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, which initially favored the home side. Rayo Vallecano entered the contest as the stronger team with a 53.2% implied win probability according to the pre-match market, compared to just 26.8% for a draw and 20.1% for a Levante victory. Ultimately, the drawn outcome did not align with these market projections. Levante took the initiative early, securing a 1-0 advantage by halftime. Despite trailing at the break, Rayo Vallecano dictated the tempo and controlled the ball, finishing the match with 58% possession compared to Levante's 42%. The overall match dynamic was heavily impacted by a red card issued to Rayo Vallecano. This crucial dismissal forced second-half adjustments and created a red card distortion that complicated the home side's ability to secure a win. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for both teams in this fixture, making it impossible to determine if the final score aligned with the underlying chance quality. However, the overall efficiency shift for the match was reported to be in line with expected models.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Rayo Vallecano showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
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Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Rayo Vallecano
Levante
Team Power Ranking
i
76.99
60.51
Rayo Vallecano
Levante
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Rayo Vallecano
Levante
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Rayo Vallecano
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano
Levante
Rayo Vallecano
Levante
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 23 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-03-17T12:56:06+00:00
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General Information
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
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Match Commentary