Randers FC vs Fredericia Prediction, Preview and Stats

Denmark flag 2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark
Cepheus Park Randers Thu, 23 Apr - 4:00 PM
Superliga
Randers FC RDF
2 – 2
Fredericia Fredericia
Full Time Thu, 23 Apr 4:00 PM
Round 6 Relegation Round
John Björkengren - 29'
Cyril Edudzi - 46'
Goal
|
Goal
Sofus Johannesen - 5'
M. Sjølstad - 34' (Own Goal)

Randers FC vs Fredericia preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

Match is finished. Randers FC 2–2 Fredericia. The match ended in a draw. Fredericia showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 54%–46%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The match exhibited a significant 74.7% structural deviation in favor of Fredericia.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be determined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The outcome did not align with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were unmet as data was unavailable.
  • Event impact: No major events significantly altered the match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to the game's structure.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Tykgaard
M. Tykgaard
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.98
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.17
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
S. Bramsen
S. Bramsen
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.98
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.17
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
A. Bøgebjerg
A. Bøgebjerg
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.98
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.17
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
J. Kehlet
J. Kehlet
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.98
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.17
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Randers FC R. Bertelsen
R. Bertelsen
VS
Fredericia M. Hansen
M. Hansen
0.93
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.2
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Odense BK Rank: L
FC København Rank: L
Vejle Boldklub Rank: D
Silkeborg IF Rank: L
Fredericia Rank: W
FC København Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Silkeborg IF Rank: D
Vejle Boldklub Rank: D
Odense BK Rank: L
FC København Rank: W
Randers FC Rank: L
Silkeborg IF Rank: W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Randers FC
50.16%
Draw
25.25%
Away Fredericia
24.59%

Movement

Changes since opening
Randers FC
+45.25%
Draw
-66.25%
Fredericia
+21%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
18.46
20.96
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Randers FC
Fredericia
Power Score
18.46
20.96
League Position
9
10
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Randers FC — Opponent-weighted form score
Fredericia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Randers FC Fredericia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Randers FC

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Fredericia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Randers FC ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Fredericia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.50
20.22
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.22
27.50
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Randers FC +0.68 Efficiency Index
vs
Fredericia -0.68 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Randers FC
Fredericia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Randers FC ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Fredericia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Randers FC Fredericia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Randers FC Fredericia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Randers FC
Fredericia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Randers FC
vs
Fredericia
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Randers FC Fredericia
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Randers FC 0.14
Fredericia 0.15
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Randers FC Fredericia
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Randers FC 0.04
Fredericia 0.03
Randers FC
Fredericia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • RDF had peak pressure around 84'.
  • Fredericia started the game with stronger pressure.
RDF Pressure Fredericia Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: RDF reached the top pressure at 84' (84.29).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Randers FC RDF Home
3 matches
Fredericia Fredericia Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
4
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-24T00:01:53+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
P. Izzo
Australia
1 P. Izzo
J. Örn
Substitution
Sweden
23 J. Örn
D. Høegh
Denmark
3 D. Høegh
W. Dammers
Netherlands
4 W. Dammers
M. Sjølstad
Substitution
Norway
15 M. Sjølstad
E. Mahmoud
France
11 E. Mahmoud
L. Raun Pedersen
Denmark
8 L. Raun Pedersen
J. Björkengren
Sweden
6 J. Björkengren
M. Greve
Substitution
Denmark
17 M. Greve
M. Themsen
Substitution
Denmark
7 M. Themsen
C. Edudzi
Substitution
33 C. Edudzi
V. Thorsen
Denmark
90 V. Thorsen
J. Jessen
Denmark
8 J. Jessen
F. Thykær Rieper
Denmark
5 F. Thykær Rieper
A. Nygaard Andersen
Denmark
3 A. Nygaard Andersen
S. Crone
Substitution
Denmark
12 S. Crone
F. Winther
Denmark
6 F. Winther
A. Andersen
Denmark
18 A. Andersen
D. Kristjánsson
Substitution
Iceland
17 D. Kristjánsson
J. Holm Lindekilde
Substitution
Denmark
21 J. Holm Lindekilde
S. Østergaard Grandjean Johannesen
Substitution
Denmark
16 S. Østergaard Grandjean Johannesen
F. Ubi Etim
Nigeria
25 F. Ubi Etim

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 23, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark · Round 6 · Relegation Round
Stadium
Cepheus Park Randers
Capacity
12000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Michael Tykgaard
Steffen Beck Bramsen
Andreas Bøgebjerg
Jakob Kehlet

Statistics

Possession
RDF
55%
Fredericia
45%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 1
0 Shots 2
77 Dangerous attacks 46
54 Possession 46
6 Corners 8
10 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

22 Dribble Attempts 20
10 Successful Dribbles 7
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 35
8 Goal Kicks 10
17 Throwins 16
5 Substitutions 4
1 Assists 0
100 Ball Safe 97
9 Goal Attempts 6

Attacking

137 Attacks 85
3 Counter Attacks 3
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

53 Successful Long Passes 28
7 Key Passes 5
504 Passes 439
86 Successful Passes Percentage 79
433 Successful Passes 346
86 Long Passes 59
62 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47

Defensive

62 Duels Won 58
1 Saves 2
22 Tackles 21
8 Interceptions 7

Build-up

32 Total Crosses 20
10 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

9 Fouls 10
2 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Jakob Kehlet

Starting XI ▼

1
Paul Izzo
Paul Izzo Goalkeeper
7.02
3
Daniel Høegh
Daniel Høegh Defender
7.09
4
Wessel Dammers
Wessel Dammers Defender
7.13
15
M. Sjølstad
M. Sjølstad Defender
6.49
44
Nikolas Dyhr
Nikolas Dyhr
Defender70'
6.67
23
Benjamin Orn
Benjamin Orn Defender
6.2
2
Lucas Lissens
Lucas Lissens
Defender46'
6.61
6
John Björkengren
John Björkengren Midfielder
6.97
8
Laurits Pedersen
Laurits Pedersen Midfielder
6.68
11
Elies Mahmoud
Elies Mahmoud Midfielder
7.1
17
Mathias Greve
Mathias Greve Midfielder
7.11
14
Frederik Lauenborg
Frederik Lauenborg
Midfielder70'
6.7
7
Mike Themsen
Mike Themsen Attacker
6.64
10
Warren Caddy
Warren Caddy
Attacker46'
6.74
33
Cyril Edudzi
Cyril Edudzi Attacker
6.71
19
Musa Touré
Musa Touré
Attacker78'
6.74
Referee : Jakob Kehlet

Starting XI ▼

90
Valdemar Birksø Thorsen
Valdemar Birksø Thorsen Goalkeeper
7.12
3
Adam Nygaard Andersen
Adam Nygaard Andersen Defender
6.54
5
Frederik Thykær Rieper
Frederik Thykær Rieper Defender
7.01
8
Jakob Jessen
Jakob Jessen Defender
6.85
12
Svenn Crone
Svenn Crone Defender
6.46
4
Jeppe Kudsk
Jeppe Kudsk
Defender62'
6.58
6
Felix Winther
Felix Winther Midfielder
7.09
16
Sofus Johannesen
Sofus Johannesen Midfielder
6.8
10
Emilio Simonsen
Emilio Simonsen
Midfielder62'
6.75
17
Daníel Freyr Kristjánsson
Daníel Freyr Kristjánsson Midfielder
6.63
19
Eskild Munk Dall
Eskild Munk Dall
Attacker82'
6.66
18
Andreas Pyndt
Andreas Pyndt Midfielder
6.69
21
Jonatan Holm Lindekilde
Jonatan Holm Lindekilde Midfielder
6.83
9
Patrick Egelund
Patrick Egelund
Attacker62'
6.71
25
Etim
Etim Attacker
7.01

Events

2ND-HALF
82'
Event
Eskild Munk Dall → Daníel Freyr Kristjánsson
9th Substitution
Event
Musa Touré → Cyril Edudzi
8th Substitution
78'
Event
Nikolas Dyhr → M. Sjølstad
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Frederik Lauenborg → Mathias Greve
7th Substitution
70'
66'
Event
Jeppe Kudsk
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
62'
Event
Patrick Egelund → Jonatan Holm Lindekilde
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Emilio Simonsen → Sofus Johannesen
5th Substitution
62'
Event
Jeppe Kudsk → Svenn Crone
4th Substitution
57'
Event
Svenn Crone
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Cyril Edudzi
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
46'
Event
Warren Caddy → Mike Themsen
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Lucas Lissens → Benjamin Orn
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
John Björkengren
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
40'
34'
Event
M. Sjølstad
Left foot shot / 1st Own Goal
Event
John Björkengren
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
29'
5'
Event
Sofus Johannesen
Header / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Randers FC salvaged a vital point against stronger-rated Fredericia in a 2-2 draw, overcoming a 1-2 halftime deficit with second-half grit. Despite superior possession, Randers' inability to convert dominance earlier allowed Fredericia to lead initially, underscoring the visitors' efficiency. The result represents a notable deviation, with Fredericia exceeding structural norms without red card interruptions or major adjustments. This stalemate boosts both teams' resilience narratives, though Randers will rue missed chances to secure victory at home. Fredericia's performance validates their underlying strength, setting up intriguing future fixtures.

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BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

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