Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Lodz Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza Sat, 18 Apr - 12:45 PM
Ekstraklasa
Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom
2 Winner 1
Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz
Full Time Sat, 18 Apr 12:45 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
Roberto Alves - 82'
Luquinhas - 90+3'
Goal
|
Goal
Christos Donis - 59' (Own Goal)

Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Lodz preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

In a pulsating Ekstraklasa clash, underdogs Radomiak Radom edged out pre-match stronger side Widzew Lodz 2-1 at home, scripting an unexpected triumph. The first half ended goalless with possession tightly contested at 51% for Radomiak and 49% for Widzew, setting the stage for a tense second period. Radomiak struck twice after the break, showcasing sharp finishing to overcome their rivals' pressure and secure the points. Widzew pushed hard but faltered in conversion, unable to breach despite their favored status. No red cards marred the affair, ensuring uninterrupted flow and highlighting tactical discipline from both. This outcome represents a significant structural deviation, as Radomiak defied projections where Widzew held the edge. The near-even possession underscored a balanced battle, with Radomiak's second-half resolve proving decisive in flipping the script.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Radomiak Radom's win marked a 68.3% significant structural deviation favoring the home side.
  • Efficiency shift: Both teams performed in line with efficiency expectations throughout the match.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be determined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The result diverged from pre-market projections.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations remained unassessable without relevant metrics.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or knockout elements altered the contest.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no disciplinary distortion affected the outcome.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Przybył
J. Przybył
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.28
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.11
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
M. Arys
M. Arys
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.28
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.11
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
S. Mucha
S. Mucha
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.28
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.11
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
R. Szydełko
R. Szydełko
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.28
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.11
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Radomiak Radom B. Nunes Baltazar
B. Nunes Baltazar
VS
Widzew Lodz A. Vukovic
A. Vukovic
1.19
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.06
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: L
Motor Lublin Rank: D
Piast Gliwice Rank: L
Legia Warszawa Rank: D
Katowice Rank: L
Arka Gdynia Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nieciecza Rank: W
Raków Częstochowa Rank: D
Górnik Zabrze Rank: D
Arka Gdynia Rank: D
Lech Poznań Rank: W
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: L
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 1 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Radomiak Radom
31.72%
Draw
28.62%
Away Widzew Lodz
39.66%

Movement

Changes since opening
Radomiak Radom
-63.51%
Draw
+24.04%
Widzew Lodz
+39.47%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
19.75
23.36
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Radomiak Radom
Widzew Lodz
Power Score
19.75
23.36
League Position
10
17
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Radomiak Radom — Opponent-weighted form score
Widzew Lodz — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Radomiak Radom Widzew Lodz

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Radomiak Radom

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Widzew Lodz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Radomiak Radom ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Widzew Lodz
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
44.02
18.57
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.57
44.02
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Radomiak Radom +2.33 Efficiency Index
vs
Widzew Lodz -2.33 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Radomiak Radom
Widzew Lodz
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Radomiak Radom ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Widzew Lodz
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Radomiak Radom Widzew Lodz
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Radomiak Radom Widzew Lodz
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Radomiak Radom
Widzew Lodz
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Radomiak Radom
vs
Widzew Lodz
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Radomiak Radom Widzew Lodz
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Radomiak Radom 0.41
Widzew Lodz 0.17
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Radomiak Radom Widzew Lodz
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Radomiak Radom 0.02
Widzew Lodz 0.04
Radomiak Radom
Widzew Lodz
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Radomiak Radom had peak pressure around 50'.
  • Widzew Lodz started the game with stronger pressure.
Radomiak Radom Pressure Widzew Lodz Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Radomiak Radom reached the top pressure at 50' (94.60).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom Home
7 matches
Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz Away
Match Record
3
Wins
3
1
Draws
1
3
Losses
3
Goals
15
Goals Scored
12
12
Goals Conceded
15
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-19T00:02:36+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-2-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
F. Majchrowicz
Poland
1 F. Majchrowicz
Z. Ouattara
Ivory Coast
24 Z. Ouattara
J. Blasco
France
5 J. Blasco
S. Kingue
Cameroon
14 S. Kingue
J. Grzesik
Poland
13 J. Grzesik
R. Wolski
Substitution
Poland
27 R. Wolski
C. Donis
Greece
77 C. Donis
L. Lima Linhares
Brazil
82 L. Lima Linhares
E. Baldé
Substitution
Portugal
21 E. Baldé
V. Fortes Lopes
Substitution
7 V. Fortes Lopes
A. Tapsoba
Substitution
Burkina Faso
15 A. Tapsoba
B. Drągowski
Poland
1 B. Drągowski
S. Kozlovský
Slovakia
3 S. Kozlovský
S. Kapuadi
France
53 S. Kapuadi
P. Wisniewski
Poland
25 P. Wisniewski
C. Muñoz Obejero
Substitution
Spain
2 C. Muñoz Obejero
J. Shehu
Substitution
Albania
6 J. Shehu
L. Selahi
Albania
18 L. Selahi
F. Alvarez Rodríguez
Spain
10 F. Alvarez Rodríguez
M. Fornalczyk
Substitution
Poland
7 M. Fornalczyk
S. Bergier
Poland
99 S. Bergier
E. Kornvig
Denmark
8 E. Kornvig

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 18, 2026, 12:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza
Capacity
5000
Attendance
12163
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jarosław Przybył
Marek Arys
Sebastian Mucha
Rafał Szydełko

Statistics

Possession
Radomiak Radom
52%
Widzew Lodz
48%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 0
5 Shots 2
49 Dangerous attacks 42
51 Possession 49
6 Corners 2
15 Free kicks 12
4 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

3 Substitutions 2
2 Hit Woodwork 0
78 Ball Safe 74
15 Throwins 14
73 Successful Dribbles Percentage 62
6 Goal Kicks 11
0 Injuries 2
11 Dribble Attempts 13
8 Successful Dribbles 8
9 Goal Attempts 6

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 0
80 Attacks 77

Possession

78 Successful Passes Percentage 70
262 Successful Passes 236
336 Passes 337
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45
11 Key Passes 6
17 Successful Long Passes 27
47 Long Passes 60

Defensive

10 Tackles 13
2 Saves 3
44 Duels Won 51
14 Interceptions 10

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 3
29 Total Crosses 15

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
12 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Jarosław Przybył

Starting XI ▼

1
Filip Majchrowicz
Filip Majchrowicz Goalkeeper
6.78
5
Jérémy Blasco
Jérémy Blasco Defender
6.63
13
Jan Grzesik
Jan Grzesik Defender
7.02
14
Steve Kingue
Steve Kingue Defender
6.63
24
Zié Ouattara
Zié Ouattara Defender
6.96
7
Vasco Rafael Fortes Lopes
Vasco Rafael Fortes Lopes Midfielder
6.69
10
Roberto Alves
Roberto Alves
Midfielder70'
7.01
21
Elves Baldé
Elves Baldé Midfielder
6.76
19
Salifou Soumah
Salifou Soumah
Attacker59'
6.54
27
Rafal Wolski
Rafal Wolski Midfielder
7
2
Ibrahima Camará
Ibrahima Camará
Midfielder90+6'
6.81
77
Christos Donis
Christos Donis Midfielder
6.61
82
Luquinhas
Luquinhas Midfielder
6.63
15
Abdoul Tapsoba
Abdoul Tapsoba Attacker
6.68
25
Maurides Roque Junior
Maurides Roque Junior
Attacker70'
7.06
Referee : Jarosław Przybył

Starting XI ▼

1
Bartlomiej Dragowski
Bartlomiej Dragowski Goalkeeper
6.77
2
Carlos Isaac
Carlos Isaac Defender
6.69
4
Mateusz Zyro
Mateusz Zyro
Defender90+4'
6.79
3
Samuel Kozlovský
Samuel Kozlovský Defender
6.66
25
Przemysław Wiśniewski
Przemysław Wiśniewski Defender
6.97
53
Steve Kapuadi
Steve Kapuadi Defender
6.68
6
Juljan Shehu
Juljan Shehu Midfielder
7.16
21
Lukas Lerager
Lukas Lerager
Midfielder68'
6.95
10
Fran Álvarez
Fran Álvarez Midfielder
7.07
18
Lindon Selahi
Lindon Selahi Midfielder
6.84
7
Mariusz Fornalczyk
Mariusz Fornalczyk Attacker
6.68
22
Osman Bukari
Osman Bukari
Attacker86'
6.74
8
Emil Kornvig
Emil Kornvig Attacker
6.97
99
Sebastian Bergier
Sebastian Bergier Attacker
6.94

Events

2ND-HALF
90+7'
Event
Przemysław Wiśniewski
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Ibrahima Camará → Rafal Wolski
7th Substitution
90+6'
90+4'
Event
Mateusz Zyro → Carlos Isaac
6th Substitution
Event
Luquinhas
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
90+3'
Event
Zié Ouattara
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
86'
86'
Event
Mateusz Zyro
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
86'
Event
Osman Bukari → Mariusz Fornalczyk
5th Substitution
Event
Roberto Alves
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
82'
Event
Rafal Wolski
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
75'
Event
Roberto Alves → Vasco Rafael Fortes Lopes
3rd Substitution
70'
Event
Maurides Roque Junior → Abdoul Tapsoba
4th Substitution
70'
68'
Event
Lukas Lerager → Juljan Shehu
2nd Substitution
Event
Ibrahima Camará
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
62'
Event
Salifou Soumah → Elves Baldé
1st Substitution
59'
59'
Event
Christos Donis
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
1ST-HALF
Event
Elves Baldé
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
35'

CONCLUSION

Radomiak Radom's gritty 2-1 victory over stronger Widzew Lodz exemplifies football's thrilling unpredictability, turning pre-match projections on their head with a significant deviation. Locked at halftime, the hosts' second-half precision delivered the breakthrough, capitalizing on even possession to claim spoils. Widzew's inability to convert chances proved costly, exposing vulnerabilities despite their edge. This upset injects momentum into Radomiak's campaign, while Widzew reflects on missed opportunities. Absent xG insights or disruptions like reds, the result spotlights execution under pressure, reinforcing that resilience often trumps favoritism in tight encounters.

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

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