Portsmouth vs Derby County Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Fratton Park Mon, 16 Mar - 8:00 PM
Championship
Portsmouth PTM
0 Winner 1
Derby County DRB
Full Time Mon, 16 Mar 8:00 PM
|
Goal
Sammie Szmodics - 8'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Portsmouth 0–1 Derby County. The result saw Derby County take the points. Derby County showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 68%–32%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Derby County showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Backhouse
A. Backhouse
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.9
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.83
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
C. Gough
C. Gough
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.9
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.83
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
H. Karaivanov
H. Karaivanov
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.9
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.83
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
J. Smith
J. Smith
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.9
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.83
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Portsmouth J. Mousinho
J. Mousinho
VS
Derby County J. Eustace
J. Eustace
1.04
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.54
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Preston North End Rank: 68 L
West Bromwich Albion Rank: 64 W
Southampton Rank: 72 D
Watford Rank: 68 D
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: 55 W
Bristol City Rank: 71 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
West Bromwich Albion Rank: 64 D
Charlton Athletic Rank: 67 W
Preston North End Rank: 68 W
Wrexham Rank: 73 L
Middlesbrough Rank: 74 W
Leicester City Rank: 68 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 4 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Portsmouth
44.53%
Draw
28.56%
Away Derby County
26.91%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
65.51
68.93
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Portsmouth
Derby County
Power Score
65.51
68.93
League Position
20
8
Global Rank
282
195

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Portsmouth — Opponent-weighted form score
Derby County — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Portsmouth Derby County

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Portsmouth

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Derby County

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Portsmouth ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Derby County
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
45.07
34.84
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.84
45.07
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Portsmouth +0.96 Efficiency Index
vs
Derby County -0.96 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Portsmouth
Derby County
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Portsmouth
vs
Derby County
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Portsmouth Derby County
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Portsmouth Derby County
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Portsmouth
Derby County
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 10 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Portsmouth PTM Home
10 matches
Derby County DRB Away
Match Record
2
Wins
4
4
Draws
4
4
Losses
2
Goals
13
Goals Scored
19
19
Goals Conceded
13
-6
Goal Difference
+6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-17T12:55:22+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
N. Schmid
Austria
1 N. Schmid
T. Devlin
Northern Ireland
24 T. Devlin
R. Poole
Wales
5 R. Poole
C. Ogilvie
England
3 C. Ogilvie
Z. Swanson
Substitution
England
22 Z. Swanson
M. Pack
England
7 (C) M. Pack
E. Adams
Substitution
Gambia
38 E. Adams
M. Alli
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
27 M. Alli
C. Chaplin
Substitution
England
36 C. Chaplin
G. Caballero
Paraguay
47 G. Caballero
J. Brown
Substitution
Scotland
40 J. Brown
R. O'Donnell
England
12 R. O'Donnell
D. Murkin
Substitution
England
2 D. Murkin
M. Clarke
England
5 M. Clarke
D. Sanderson
England
28 D. Sanderson
J. Ward
England
23 J. Ward
B. Clark
England
42 B. Clark
L. Travis
England
27 (C) L. Travis
R. Brewster
Substitution
England
10 R. Brewster
S. Szmodics
Substitution
England
19 S. Szmodics
B. Brereton
Substitution
Chile
25 B. Brereton
P. Agyemang
Substitution
Ghana
7 P. Agyemang

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 16, 2026, 08:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England
Stadium
Fratton Park
Capacity
20688
Attendance
19253
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Anthony Backhouse
C. Gough
Hristo Karaivanov
Joshua Smith

Statistics

Possession
PTM
64%
DRB
36%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
27 Shots 10
73 Dangerous attacks 23
68 Possession 32
11 Corners 3
13 Free kicks 14
2 Yellow Cards 6

Match Overview

19 Successful Headers 23
18 Throwins 17
8 Goal Kicks 18
44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
9 Dribble Attempts 24
4 Successful Dribbles 8
0 Hit Woodwork 2
98 Ball Safe 101
5 Substitutions 5
14 Goal Attempts 7
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

132 Attacks 65
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

17 Key Passes 7
25 Successful Long Passes 16
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 24
396 Successful Passes 145
493 Passes 243
70 Long Passes 68
80 Successful Passes Percentage 60

Defensive

20 Tackles 13
13 Interceptions 8
3 Saves 9

Build-up

41 Total Crosses 8
9 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

14 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Anthony Backhouse

Starting XI ▼

1
Nicolas Schmid
Nicolas Schmid Goalkeeper
6.88
3
Connor Ogilvie
Connor Ogilvie Defender
6.94
5
Regan Poole
Regan Poole Defender
7.07
22
Zak Swanson
Zak Swanson Defender
6.96
6
Conor Shaughnessy
Conor Shaughnessy
Defender63'
6.73
24
Terry Devlin
Terry Devlin Defender
7.12
7
Marlon Pack
Marlon Pack (C) Midfielder
6.74
27
Millenic Alli
Millenic Alli Midfielder
6.88
10
Adrian Segecic
Adrian Segecic
Midfielder77'
6.93
36
Conor Chaplin
Conor Chaplin Midfielder
7.31
8
John Swift
John Swift
Midfielder63'
6.62
38
Ebou Adams
Ebou Adams Midfielder
6.97
9
Colby Bishop
Colby Bishop
Attacker77'
6.74
47
Gustavo Caballero
Gustavo Caballero Midfielder
6.81
40
Jacob Brown
Jacob Brown Attacker
7.06
25
Makenzie Kirk
Makenzie Kirk
Attacker83'
6.65
Referee : Anthony Backhouse

Starting XI ▼

12
Richard O'Donnell
Richard O'Donnell Goalkeeper
9.03
2
Derry Murkin
Derry Murkin Defender
7.28
3
Craig Forsyth
Craig Forsyth
Defender83'
6.44
5
Matt Clarke
Matt Clarke Defender
7.15
23
Joe Ward
Joe Ward Defender
7.08
28
Dion Sanderson
Dion Sanderson Defender
7.4
10
Rhian Brewster
Rhian Brewster Midfielder
7.06
29
Oscar Fraulo
Oscar Fraulo
Midfielder61'
6.44
19
Sammie Szmodics
Sammie Szmodics Midfielder
7.23
18
David Ozoh
David Ozoh
Midfielder72'
6.43
25
Ben Brereton Díaz
Ben Brereton Díaz Midfielder
5.92
34
Jaydon Banel
Jaydon Banel
Midfielder83'
6.79
27
Lewis Travis
Lewis Travis (C) Midfielder
7.17
42
Bobby Clark
Bobby Clark Midfielder
5.97
7
Patrick Agyemang
Patrick Agyemang Attacker
7
9
Carlton Morris
Carlton Morris
Attacker72'
6.68

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Oscar Fraulo
Foul / 8th Yellowcard
88'
Event
Joe Ward
Time wasting / 7th Yellowcard
86'
Event
Bobby Clark
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Makenzie Kirk → Jacob Brown
10th Substitution
83'
83'
Event
Jaydon Banel → Ben Brereton Díaz
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Craig Forsyth → Derry Murkin
9th Substitution
78'
Event
Ben Brereton Díaz
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Adrian Segecic → Millenic Alli
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Colby Bishop → Ebou Adams
6th Substitution
77'
72'
Event
David Ozoh → Sammie Szmodics
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Carlton Morris → Patrick Agyemang
4th Substitution
Event
John Swift
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
67'
Event
John Swift → Conor Chaplin
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Conor Shaughnessy → Zak Swanson
2nd Substitution
63'
61'
Event
Oscar Fraulo → Rhian Brewster
1st Substitution
53'
Event
Matt Clarke
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
41'
Event
Sammie Szmodics
2nd Yellowcard
Event
Conor Chaplin
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
40'
8'
Event
Sammie Szmodics
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Marlon Pack from Portsmouth took a shot with his right foot from the right side of the penalty area, but it sailed high and wide to the right.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Portsmouth after Richard O'Donnell allowed the ball to go out.
90
Update Update
That's it! The match has concluded with Portsmouth ending at 0 and Derby County taking the win with 1 goal.
90
Update Update
Terry Devlin from Portsmouth earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Portsmouth 0, Derby County 1.
90
Update Update
The pause has ended. They're set to resume play.
90
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Richard O'Donnell from Derby County.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be six minutes of stoppage time.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Carlton Morris from Derby County took a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Jaydon Banel.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Oscar Fraulo from Derby County has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
90
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Adrian Segecic from Portsmouth takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the box, but Richard O'Donnell of Derby County makes a fantastic save, denying the attempt at the top center of the goal.
90
Update Update
Oscar Fraulo from Derby County committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Oscar Fraulo from Derby County committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Adrian Segecic from Portsmouth has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
89
Update Update
Another offensive effort unfolds as Conor Shaughnessy of Portsmouth heads the ball from the center of the box. However, Richard O'Donnell from Derby County makes a fantastic save, denying the attempt at the top center of the goal. The assist came from Terry Devlin, who delivered a precise cross.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Joe Ward from Derby County has been shown a yellow card.
87
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Portsmouth after Bobby Clark gave it away.
87
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Colby Bishop from Portsmouth attempted a header from the center of the box but failed to find the target. The chance was set up by John Swift, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
86
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Bobby Clark of Derby County has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
86
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Conor Shaughnessy from Portsmouth attempts a right-footed strike from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
86
Update Update
Terry Devlin from Portsmouth was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
86
Update Update
Bobby Clark from Derby County committed a foul.
84
Attempt Attempt
A new offensive push is underway. Jaydon Banel from Derby County takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Nicolas Schmid from Portsmouth makes a save, catching the ball in the top center of the goal. The assist came from Lewis Travis.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Derby County: Jaydon Banel is coming on to replace Ben Brereton.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Derby County: Craig Forsyth is coming on to replace Derry John Murkin, who has been injured.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portsmouth: Makenzie Kirk replaces Jacob Brown.
82
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play now.
82
Update Update
The game is currently on hold due to an injury to Derry John Murkin from Derby County.
81
Attempt Attempt
Marlon Pack from Portsmouth attempts a shot with his right foot from the center of the penalty area, but it's deflected away. The assist came from Gustavo Caballero.
81
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Bobby Clark from Derby County attempted a right-footed shot from a challenging angle on the left side, but it narrowly went wide to the left. The assist came from Oscar Fraulo.
80
Update Update
John Swift commits a handball for Portsmouth.
78
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ben Brereton of Derby County has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
78
Update Update
Ben Brereton of Derby County committed a foul.
78
Update Update
Nicolas Schmid from Portsmouth has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portsmouth: Adrian Segecic comes on to replace Millenic Alli.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portsmouth: Colby Bishop is coming on to replace Ebou Adams.
75
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Conor Shaughnessy from Portsmouth attempts a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
73
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Jacob Brown from Portsmouth attempted a header from the center of the box, but it sailed high and wide to the right. The cross was delivered by Regan Poole.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Derby County: David Ozoh replaces Sam Szmodics.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Derby County: Carlton Morris replaces Patrick Agyemang.
71
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Portsmouth after Richard O'Donnell allowed the ball to go out.
71
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push underway. Millenic Alli from Portsmouth takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Richard O'Donnell of Derby County makes a save, diving to his right to stop the ball.
70
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Portsmouth after Derry John Murkin allowed the ball to go out.
69
Update Update
Offside call against Derby County. Patrick Agyemang has been flagged for being in an offside position.
68
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Portsmouth after Sam Szmodics allowed the ball to go out.
67
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
John Swift from Portsmouth has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
67
Update Update
Derry John Murkin from Derby County has been awarded a free kick in their defensive area.
67
Update Update
John Swift from Portsmouth committed a foul.
66
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Millenic Alli from Portsmouth took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area that went just wide. The assist came from Terry Devlin.
64
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Dion Sanderson from Derby County.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portsmouth: Conor Shaughnessy replaces Zak Swanson.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portsmouth: John Swift replaces Conor Chaplin.
62
Update Update
Patrick Agyemang from Derby County committed a foul.
62
Update Update
Regan Poole from Portsmouth has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Derby County: Oscar Fraulo comes on to replace Rhian Brewster.
59
Update Update
Terry Devlin from Portsmouth committed a foul.
59
Update Update
Lewis Travis from Derby County earned a free kick on the left flank.
58
Attempt Attempt
Joe Ward from Derby County strikes the crossbar with a right-footed shot taken from outside the penalty area following a free kick.
57
Update Update
Ben Brereton from Derby County earned a free kick in the defensive area.
57
Update Update
Rhian Brewster from Derby County was awarded a free kick in the attacking zone.
57
Update Update
Regan Poole from Portsmouth committed a foul.
57
Update Update
Zak Swanson from Portsmouth committed a foul.
55
Update Update
Dion Sanderson from Derby County has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
55
Update Update
Jacob Brown from Portsmouth committed a foul.
54
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Terry Devlin from Portsmouth took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed over the goal and to the right.
53
Update Update
Matt Clarke from Derby County committed a foul.
53
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Matt Clarke from Derby County has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
53
Update Update
Millenic Alli from Portsmouth was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Portsmouth after Lewis Travis allowed the ball to go out.
51
Update Update
Dion Sanderson committed a foul for Derby County.
51
Update Update
Ebou Adams from Portsmouth was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
51
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Conor Chaplin from Portsmouth attempts a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
49
Attempt Attempt
Near miss! Ebou Adams from Portsmouth took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area that went just wide to the left. The assist came from Jacob Brown.
48
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push underway. Jacob Brown from Portsmouth attempts a header from the middle of the box, but it's expertly saved by goalkeeper Richard O'Donnell of Derby County, positioned centrally. The assist came from Conor Chaplin, who delivered a well-placed cross.
47
Attempt Attempt
Ebou Adams from Portsmouth attempts a shot with his right foot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Conor Chaplin, who set him up with a header.
47
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Portsmouth after Rhian Brewster allowed the ball to go out.
46
Update Update
Lewis Travis from Derby County earned a free kick in an offensive position.
46
Update Update
Ebou Adams committed a foul on a Portsmouth player.
45
Update Update
Rhian Brewster from Derby County has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive play unfolds as Gustavo Caballero from Portsmouth takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area. However, Richard O'Donnell, the goalkeeper for Derby County, makes a crucial save right in the center of the goal. The assist for this attempt came from Connor Ogilvie.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
Zak Swanson from Portsmouth was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score at Portsmouth 0, Derby County 1.
45
Update Update
Ben Brereton from Derby County committed a foul.
45
Update Update
Fouled by Millenic Alli from Portsmouth.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score at Portsmouth 0, Derby County 1.
44
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Patrick Agyemang from Derby County takes a left-footed shot from a challenging angle on the left side. However, Nicolas Schmid from Portsmouth makes a great save, pushing the ball away to the left corner. The assist came from Rhian Brewster.
43
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push. Jacob Brown from Portsmouth takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Richard O'Donnell of Derby County makes a save, diving to his left.
41
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sam Szmodics from Derby County has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
41
Update Update
Ben Brereton from Derby County committed a foul.
41
Update Update
Connor Ogilvie from Portsmouth earned a free kick in the defensive area.
40
Update Update
Marlon Pack from Portsmouth committed a foul.
40
Update Update
Lewis Travis from Derby County earned a free kick in the defensive area.
40
Update Update
Bobby Clark from Derby County earned a free kick in an offensive position.
34
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Conor Chaplin from Portsmouth takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Jacob Brown, who set him up with a header.
34
Update Update
Conor Chaplin from Portsmouth committed a foul.
34
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Portsmouth after Dion Sanderson allowed the ball to go out.
33
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Portsmouth after Dion Sanderson allowed the ball to go out of play.
33
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Zak Swanson from Portsmouth fires a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
32
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push is underway. Zak Swanson from Portsmouth takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped by the goalkeeper.
32
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Portsmouth after Dion Sanderson allowed the ball to go out.
32
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Gustavo Caballero from Portsmouth takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Ebou Adams.
29
Corner Corner
A new offensive effort unfolds as Millenic Alli from Portsmouth takes a right-footed shot from a challenging angle and long range on the right side. The attempt is expertly saved by Richard O'Donnell of Derby County, who reaches up to deny the effort in the top right corner. The assist for this play comes from Terry Devlin.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Portsmouth after Richard O'Donnell allowed the ball to go out.
29
Update Update
The attempt is thwarted. Jacob Brown from Portsmouth heads the ball from the center of the box, but it's blocked.
25
Update Update
Derry John Murkin from Derby County committed a foul.
25
Update Update
Millenic Alli from Portsmouth has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
24
Update Update
Terry Devlin from Portsmouth committed a foul.
24
Update Update
Rhian Brewster from Derby County earned a free kick in the defensive area.
21
Update Update
Lewis Travis committed a foul on a player from Derby County.
21
Update Update
Ebou Adams from Portsmouth was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
20
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Dion Sanderson from Derby County fires a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
19
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Ben Brereton from Derby County takes a right-footed shot from a challenging angle on the right side. However, the attempt is thwarted by goalkeeper Nicolas Schmid, who makes a save right in the center of the goal. The assist came from Patrick Agyemang of Portsmouth.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Derby County after Nicolas Schmid allowed the ball to go out.
18
Update Update
Regan Poole from Portsmouth has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
18
Update Update
Foul committed by Patrick Agyemang of Derby County.
17
Update Update
Lewis Travis from Derby County has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
17
Update Update
Marlon Pack from Portsmouth committed a foul.
16
Update Update
Offside call against Portsmouth. Regan Poole has been flagged for being in an offside position.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Portsmouth after Joe Ward allowed the ball to go out.
15
Attempt Attempt
A shot was deflected. Gustavo Caballero from Portsmouth attempted a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Conor Chaplin.
15
Update Update
The attempt is thwarted. Millenic Alli from Portsmouth heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Conor Chaplin, who delivered a cross.
12
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Derby County after Regan Poole allowed the ball to go out.
12
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Patrick Agyemang from Derby County attempts a right-footed strike from the middle of the penalty area, but it's stopped.
8
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Derby County takes the lead against Portsmouth with a score of 1-0. Sam Szmodics scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, finding the bottom right corner following a corner kick.
7
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Derby County after Gustavo Caballero allowed the ball to go out.
6
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Rhian Brewster from Derby County attempted a header from the center of the box but failed to find the target. The cross was delivered by Derry John Murkin.
5
Update Update
Zak Swanson from Portsmouth has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
5
Update Update
Ben Brereton from Derby County committed a foul.
5
Update Update
Rhian Brewster of Derby County was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
5
Update Update
Marlon Pack from Portsmouth committed a foul.
2
Update Update
Ebou Adams from Portsmouth committed a foul.
2
Update Update
Lewis Travis from Derby County earned a free kick in the defensive area.
1
Update Update
Offside call against Derby County. Patrick Agyemang is caught in an offside position.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Derby County exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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