Polissya Zhytomyr vs Obolon'-Brovar Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Tsentralnyi Stadion Sun, 26 Apr - 3:00 PM
Premier League
Polissya Zhytomyr Polissya Zhytomyr
3 Winner 1
Obolon'-Brovar Obolon'-Brovar
Full Time Sun, 26 Apr 3:00 PM
Round 25 Regular Season
Eduard Sarapiy - 18', 64'
Oleksiy Gutsulyak - 77' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Maksym Tretyakov - 89' (P)
Ilir Krasniqi 54' Second yellow card
|

Polissya Zhytomyr vs Obolon'-Brovar preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

CONTEXT

Polissya Zhytomyr defeated Obolon'-Brovar 3-1 in a match marked by resilience despite a second-half red card. The home side took a 1-0 lead at halftime, reflecting early dominance. Possession was tightly contested, with Polissya holding 49% to Obolon's 51%. After the red card to a Polissya player, the game shifted, yet Polissya scored twice more to Obolon's single reply, securing victory. Identified as the stronger team, Polissya overcame numerical disadvantage through effective adjustments. The result showed a significant 31.3% structural deviation in Polissya's favor. Pre-match market probabilities anticipated this outcome, with home win at 68.7%. Efficiency stayed in line with norms, though xG data was unavailable. The red card introduced notable second-half distortion, altering dynamics without derailing the winner.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Polissya Zhytomyr recorded a significant 31.3% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable as data not provided.
  • Event impact: Red card event significantly influenced second-half play.
  • Red card distortion: Home red card caused second-half distortion per adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
O. Derevinskyi
O. Derevinskyi
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.2
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.86
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
O. Myronov
O. Myronov
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.2
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.86
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
H. Svitlana
H. Svitlana
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.2
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.86
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
O. Solovyan
O. Solovyan
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.2
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.86
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Polissya Zhytomyr R. Rotan
R. Rotan
VS
Obolon'-Brovar O. Antonenko
O. Antonenko
1.93
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.79
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Shakhtar Donetsk Rank: L
SK Poltava Rank: W
Veres Rank: D
Kudrivka Rank: W
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Rank: W
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
SK Poltava Rank: D
Veres Rank: L
Zorya Luhansk Rank: D
Karpaty Rank: L
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: L
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Rank: D
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 1 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Polissya Zhytomyr
68.69%
Draw
22.03%
Away Obolon'-Brovar
9.28%

Movement

Changes since opening
Polissya Zhytomyr
-28.63%
Draw
+20.12%
Obolon'-Brovar
+8.51%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
29.57
12.38
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Polissya Zhytomyr
Obolon'-Brovar
Power Score
29.57
12.38
League Position
3
12
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Polissya Zhytomyr — Opponent-weighted form score
Obolon'-Brovar — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Polissya Zhytomyr Obolon'-Brovar

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Polissya Zhytomyr

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Obolon'-Brovar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Polissya Zhytomyr ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Obolon'-Brovar
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.10
26.57
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.57
30.10
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Polissya Zhytomyr +0.36 Efficiency Index
vs
Obolon'-Brovar -0.36 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Polissya Zhytomyr
Obolon'-Brovar
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Polissya Zhytomyr ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Obolon'-Brovar
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Polissya Zhytomyr Obolon'-Brovar
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Polissya Zhytomyr Obolon'-Brovar
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Polissya Zhytomyr
Obolon'-Brovar
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Polissya Zhytomyr
vs
Obolon'-Brovar
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Polissya Zhytomyr Obolon'-Brovar
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Polissya Zhytomyr 0.37
Obolon'-Brovar 0.39
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Polissya Zhytomyr Obolon'-Brovar
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Polissya Zhytomyr 0.03
Obolon'-Brovar 0.09
Polissya Zhytomyr
Obolon'-Brovar
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Polissya Zhytomyr had peak pressure around 16'.
  • Polissya Zhytomyr started the game with stronger pressure.
Polissya Zhytomyr Pressure Obolon'-Brovar Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Polissya Zhytomyr reached the top pressure at 16' (61.15).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Polissya Zhytomyr Polissya Zhytomyr Home
5 matches
Obolon'-Brovar Obolon'-Brovar Away
Match Record
3
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
3
Goals
10
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
10
+9
Goal Difference
-9
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:06:04+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
E. Volynets
Ukraine
23 E. Volynets
G. Maisuradze
Georgia
31 G. Maisuradze
S. Chobotenko
Substitution
Ukraine
44 S. Chobotenko
E. Sarapiy
Ukraine
5 E. Sarapiy
B. Mykhaylichenko
Ukraine
15 B. Mykhaylichenko
I. Krasniqi
Kosovo
16 I. Krasniqi
O. Hutsuliak
Ukraine
11 O. Hutsuliak
O. Andrievsky
Substitution
Ukraine
18 O. Andrievsky
O. Fedor
Substitution
Ukraine
27 O. Fedor
M. Bragaru
Substitution
Ukraine
45 M. Bragaru
M. Gayduchyk
Substitution
Ukraine
89 M. Gayduchyk
D. Marchenko
Ukraine
31 D. Marchenko
E. Shevchenko
Substitution
Ukraine
5 E. Shevchenko
D. Semenov
Ukraine
50 D. Semenov
O. Zhovtenko
Ukraine
44 O. Zhovtenko
P. Polehenko
Ukraine
28 P. Polehenko
T. Moroz
Ukraine
4 T. Moroz
M. Chekh
Ukraine
6 M. Chekh
E. Prokopenko
Ukraine
24 E. Prokopenko
O. Slobodyan
Substitution
Ukraine
10 O. Slobodyan
K. Bychek
Substitution
Ukraine
21 K. Bychek
S. Sukhanov
Substitution
Ukraine
55 S. Sukhanov

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 26, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 25 · Regular Season
Stadium
Tsentralnyi Stadion
Capacity
5928
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Oleksiy Derevinskyi
Oleksiy Myronov
Hrushko Svitlana
Oleksandr Solovyan

Statistics

Possession
Polissya Zhytomyr
51%
Obolon'-Brovar
49%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
8 Shots 5
35 Dangerous attacks 31
49 Possession 51
4 Corners 3
6 Free kicks 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

2 Penalties 1
9 Goal Kicks 5
2 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

62 Attacks 68

Defensive

2 Saves 5

Discipline

15 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Oleksiy Derevinskyi

Starting XI ▼

23
Yevgen Volynets
Yevgen Volynets Goalkeeper
6.54
5
Eduard Sarapiy
Eduard Sarapiy Defender
2
6.65
15
Bogdan Mykhaylichenko
Bogdan Mykhaylichenko Defender
6.54
16
Ilir Krasniqi
Ilir Krasniqi Defender
6.68
31
Giorgi Maisuradze
Giorgi Maisuradze Defender
6.8
44
Sergiy Chobotenko
Sergiy Chobotenko Defender
6.53
60
Maksym Melnychenko
Maksym Melnychenko
Defender89'
6.31
11
Oleksiy Gutsulyak
Oleksiy Gutsulyak Midfielder
6.98
18
Oleksandr Andriyevskyi
Oleksandr Andriyevskyi Midfielder
6.64
14
Lindon Emërllahu
Lindon Emërllahu
Midfielder81'
6.66
27
Oleg Fedor
Oleg Fedor Midfielder
6.46
35
Kiril Kobernyuk
Kiril Kobernyuk
Defender62'
6.36
45
Maksym Bragaru
Maksym Bragaru Midfielder
6.66
8
Ruslan Babenko
Ruslan Babenko
Midfielder62'
6.58
89
Mykola Gayduchyk
Mykola Gayduchyk Attacker
6.74
95
Igor Krasnopir
Igor Krasnopir
Attacker62'
6.55
Referee : Oleksiy Derevinskyi

Starting XI ▼

31
Denys Marchenko
Denys Marchenko Goalkeeper
6.38
5
Yevgeniy Shevchenko
Yevgeniy Shevchenko Defender
6.19
75
Maksym Tretyakov
Maksym Tretyakov
Midfielder78'
6.76
28
Pavlo Polegenko
Pavlo Polegenko Defender
6.18
44
O. Zhovtenko
O. Zhovtenko Defender
6.33
50
Dmytro Semenov
Dmytro Semenov Defender
6.34
4
Taras Moroz
Taras Moroz Midfielder
6.3
6
Maksym Chekh
Maksym Chekh Midfielder
6.34
10
Oleg Slobodyan
Oleg Slobodyan Midfielder
6.41
17
Ruslan Chernenko
Ruslan Chernenko
Midfielder38'
6.42
24
Yegor Prokopenko
Yegor Prokopenko Midfielder
6.33
21
Kostyantyn Bychek
Kostyantyn Bychek Attacker
6.48
40
Ivan Nesterenko
Ivan Nesterenko
Midfielder62'
6.43
55
Sergiy Sukhanov
Sergiy Sukhanov Attacker
6.51
90
Taras Lyakh
Taras Lyakh
Attacker78'
6.65

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Maksym Melnychenko → Sergiy Chobotenko
9th Substitution
89'
Event
1st Missed Penalty
89'
89'
Event
Maksym Tretyakov
Penalty / 2nd Penalty
Event
Lindon Emërllahu → Oleksandr Andriyevskyi
8th Substitution
81'
78'
Event
Taras Lyakh → Sergiy Sukhanov
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Maksym Tretyakov → Yevgeniy Shevchenko
7th Substitution
Event
Oleksiy Gutsulyak
Penalty / 1st Penalty
77'
Event
Eduard Sarapiy
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
64'
Event
Igor Krasnopir → Mykola Gayduchyk
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Ruslan Babenko → Maksym Bragaru
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Kiril Kobernyuk → Oleg Fedor
3rd Substitution
62'
62'
Event
Ivan Nesterenko → Kostyantyn Bychek
5th Substitution
Event
Ilir Krasniqi
Second Yellow Card / 1st Yellow/red Card
54'
51'
Event
2nd Yellowcard
Event
3rd Yellowcard
49'
Event
Maksym Bragaru
1st Yellowcard
49'
1ST-HALF
38'
Event
Ruslan Chernenko → Oleg Slobodyan
1st Substitution
Event
Eduard Sarapiy
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
18'

CONCLUSION

Polissya Zhytomyr's 3-1 win underscored their status as the stronger side, navigating a red card setback effectively. Leading 1-0 at halftime, they added two goals post-event despite Obolon'-Brovar's pressure. Near-even possession highlighted balanced control, with Polissya's finishing proving decisive. The significant structural deviation of 31.3% favored the home team, aligning with market views. Efficiency held steady, though absent xG limits deeper analysis. Red card distortion marked the second half, yet Polissya's adaptability ensured triumph, reinforcing pre-match assessments.

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Premier League, Ukraine View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ