Polissya Zhytomyr vs Dynamo Kyiv Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Tsentralnyi Stadion Mon, 9 Mar - 12:14 AM
Premier League
Polissya Zhytomyr Polissya Zhytomyr
1 Winner 2
Dynamo Kyiv DYN
Full Time Mon, 9 Mar 12:14 AM
Oleksiy Gutsulyak - 40' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Matviy Ponomarenko - 45+2', 60'

Polissya Zhytomyr vs Dynamo Kyiv preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

Match is finished. Polissya Zhytomyr 0–1 Dynamo Kyiv. The result saw Dynamo Kyiv take the points. Dynamo Kyiv showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 53%–47%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Dynamo Kyiv showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
O. Berkut
O. Berkut
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 7.56
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.94
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Nikolai Balakin
Nikolai Balakin
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 7.56
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.94
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
V. Matyash
V. Matyash
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 7.56
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.94
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
M. Firsov
M. Firsov
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 7.56
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.94
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Polissya Zhytomyr R. Rotan
R. Rotan
VS
Dynamo Kyiv I. Kostyuk
I. Kostyuk
2.36
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.43
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: W
Kolos Kovalivka Rank: W
Karpaty Rank: W
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: L
Zorya Luhansk Rank: W
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: W
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: W
Veres Rank: W
Kudrivka Rank: W
SK Poltava Rank: L
Kolos Kovalivka Rank: L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Polissya Zhytomyr
38.03%
Draw
30.11%
Away Dynamo Kyiv
31.86%

Movement

Changes since opening
Polissya Zhytomyr
-0.67%
Draw
-0.07%
Dynamo Kyiv
+0.74%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.16
61.4
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Polissya Zhytomyr
Dynamo Kyiv
Power Score
63.16
61.4
League Position
3
4
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Polissya Zhytomyr — Opponent-weighted form score
Dynamo Kyiv — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Polissya Zhytomyr Dynamo Kyiv

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Polissya Zhytomyr

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Dynamo Kyiv

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Polissya Zhytomyr ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dynamo Kyiv
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
6.42
15.74
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
15.74
6.42
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Polissya Zhytomyr -0.95 Efficiency Index
vs
Dynamo Kyiv +0.95 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Polissya Zhytomyr
Dynamo Kyiv
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Polissya Zhytomyr ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dynamo Kyiv
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Polissya Zhytomyr Dynamo Kyiv
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Polissya Zhytomyr Dynamo Kyiv
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Polissya Zhytomyr
Dynamo Kyiv
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Polissya Zhytomyr Polissya Zhytomyr Home
5 matches
Dynamo Kyiv DYN Away
Match Record
1
Wins
3
1
Draws
1
3
Losses
1
Goals
5
Goals Scored
11
11
Goals Conceded
5
-6
Goal Difference
+6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:14:29+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 09, 2026, 12:14 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Stadium
Tsentralnyi Stadion
Capacity
5928
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Oleksandr Berkut
Nikolai Balakin
Viktor Matyash
Maksim Firsov

Statistics

Possession
Polissya Zhytomyr
51%
DYN
49%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
2 Shots 4
28 Dangerous attacks 28
53 Possession 47
8 Corners 5
8 Free kicks 11
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Goal Kicks 3
1 Penalties 0
0 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

44 Attacks 38

Defensive

2 Saves 1

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
6 Fouls 6

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Giorgi Maisuradze → Oleksandr Nazarenko
8th Substitution
83'
Event
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Volodymyr Shepelev → Lindon Emërllahu
9th Substitution
82'
82'
Event
Eduardo Guerrero → Matviy Ponomarenko
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Mykola Mykhaylenko → Mykola Shaparenko
5th Substitution
Event
Mykola Gayduchyk → Igor Krasnopir
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Oleg Fedor → Oleksandr Andriyevskyi
2nd Substitution
66'
Event
Ilir Krasniqi → Ruslan Babenko
4th Substitution
66'
64'
Event
Oleksandr Tymchyk → Oleksandr Karavaev
1st Substitution
60'
Event
Matviy Ponomarenko
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
1ST-HALF
45+2'
Event
Matviy Ponomarenko
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
45'
Event
Matviy Ponomarenko
1st Yellowcard
Event
Oleksiy Gutsulyak
Penalty / 1st Penalty
40'
Event
Lindon Emërllahu
Var
24'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Dynamo Kyiv exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

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