Pogoń Szczecin vs Lech Poznań Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera Sat, 18 Apr - 6:15 PM
Ekstraklasa
Pogoń Szczecin Pogoń Szczecin
1 Winner 2
Lech Poznań Lech Poznań
Full Time Sat, 18 Apr 6:15 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
Paul Mukairu - 80'
Goal
|
Goal
Antoni Kozubal - 35'
Luis Palma - 62'

Pogoń Szczecin vs Lech Poznań preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

In a pulsating Ekstraklasa encounter at Stadion im. Floriana Krygiera, Pogoń Szczecin fell 1-2 to Lech Poznań, despite holding 56% possession. The visitors took control early, leading 1-0 at halftime through clinical finishing, while the hosts struggled to break down a resolute defense. Pogoń mounted pressure in the second half, pulling one back, but Lech's counter-attacking prowess sealed a deserved victory for the stronger side. No red cards disrupted play, and the match flowed without major interruptions or tactical overhauls. This result underscores Lech's efficiency in turning limited possession into goals, aligning with pre-match expectations where they were favored. Pogoń's dominance in the ball failed to yield results, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities exposed by Lech's sharp transitions.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lech Poznań's win marked a significant 57.2% structural deviation favoring their performance.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG data absence prevents determination of outcome alignment with expected goals.
  • Market alignment: Final result fully aligned with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: Missing xG figures preclude evaluation against performance expectations.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered match trajectory.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured undistorted match dynamics throughout.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
B. Syropiatko
B. Syropiatko
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.28
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.11
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
P. Gryckiewicz
P. Gryckiewicz
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.28
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.11
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
M. Boniek
M. Boniek
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.28
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.11
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Pogoń Szczecin T. Thomasberg
T. Thomasberg
VS
Lech Poznań N. Frederiksen
N. Frederiksen
1.41
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.56
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Piast Gliwice Rank: W
Legia Warszawa Rank: L
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: L
Korona Kielce Rank: W
Raków Częstochowa Rank: L
Widzew Lodz Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Katowice Rank: D
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: D
Nieciecza Rank: W
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: W
Widzew Lodz Rank: L
Raków Częstochowa Rank: W
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 14 - 16
16

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Pogoń Szczecin
32.34%
Draw
24.82%
Away Lech Poznań
42.83%

Movement

Changes since opening
Pogoń Szczecin
+32.15%
Draw
+20.24%
Lech Poznań
-52.4%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
26.67
36.28
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Pogoń Szczecin
Lech Poznań
Power Score
26.67
36.28
League Position
14
1
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Pogoń Szczecin — Opponent-weighted form score
Lech Poznań — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Pogoń Szczecin Lech Poznań

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Pogoń Szczecin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lech Poznań

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Pogoń Szczecin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lech Poznań
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
15.63
57.50
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
57.50
15.63
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Pogoń Szczecin -3.84 Efficiency Index
vs
Lech Poznań +3.84 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Pogoń Szczecin
Lech Poznań
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Pogoń Szczecin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lech Poznań
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Pogoń Szczecin Lech Poznań
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Pogoń Szczecin Lech Poznań
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Pogoń Szczecin
Lech Poznań
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Pogoń Szczecin
vs
Lech Poznań
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Pogoń Szczecin Lech Poznań
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Pogoń Szczecin 0.11
Lech Poznań 0.33
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Pogoń Szczecin Lech Poznań
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Pogoń Szczecin 0.03
Lech Poznań 0.02
Pogoń Szczecin
Lech Poznań
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Lech Poznań had peak pressure around 50'.
  • Lech Poznań started the game with stronger pressure.
Pogoń Szczecin Pressure Lech Poznań Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Lech Poznań reached the top pressure at 50' (99.81).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 37 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Pogoń Szczecin Pogoń Szczecin Home
37 matches
Lech Poznań Lech Poznań Away
Match Record
7
Wins
16
14
Draws
14
16
Losses
7
Goals
39
Goals Scored
54
54
Goals Conceded
39
-15
Goal Difference
+15
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-19T00:07:11+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
V. Cojocaru
Romania
77 V. Cojocaru
D. Keramitsis
Greece
13 D. Keramitsis
D. Lončar
Substitution
Croatia
22 D. Lončar
A. Szalai
Hungary
41 A. Szalai
L. Borges da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
4 L. Borges da Silva
K. Acosta
United States
3 K. Acosta
J. Biegański
Substitution
Poland
6 J. Biegański
F. Ulvestad
Norway
8 F. Ulvestad
Natan Lawa
Substitution
47 Natan Lawa
P. Mukairu
Nigeria
18 P. Mukairu
K. Grosicki
Substitution
Poland
11 K. Grosicki
P. Andreev
Bulgaria
1 P. Andreev
M. Gurgul
Poland
15 M. Gurgul
W. Mońka
Poland
27 W. Mońka
R. Gumny
Poland
20 R. Gumny
J. Vieira Pereira
Portugal
2 J. Vieira Pereira
L. Palma Oseguera
Substitution
Honduras
77 L. Palma Oseguera
P. Delgado
Substitution
Spain
99 P. Delgado
A. Kozubal
Poland
43 A. Kozubal
A. Gholizadeh
Substitution
Iran
8 A. Gholizadeh
M. Ishak
Substitution
Sweden
9 M. Ishak
P. Wålemark
Substitution
Sweden
10 P. Wålemark

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 18, 2026, 06:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera
Capacity
18027
Attendance
20991
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Błażej Syropiatko
Patryk Gryckiewicz
Marcin Boniek

Statistics

Possession
Pogoń Szczecin
52%
Lech Poznań
48%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 6
6 Shots 22
55 Dangerous attacks 66
56 Possession 44
5 Corners 6
12 Free kicks 13
3 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
10 Goal Kicks 4
46 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60
16 Throwins 23
13 Dribble Attempts 10
6 Successful Dribbles 6
1 Assists 1
67 Ball Safe 57
0 Injuries 2
5 Goal Attempts 18

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 5
78 Attacks 73

Possession

42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37
27 Successful Long Passes 15
64 Long Passes 41
426 Passes 342
81 Successful Passes Percentage 77
344 Successful Passes 265

Defensive

46 Duels Won 45
10 Tackles 16
12 Interceptions 12
9 Saves 1

Build-up

22 Total Crosses 16
4 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

13 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 5

Lineup

Referee : Patryk Gryckiewicz

Starting XI ▼

77
Valentin Cojocaru
Valentin Cojocaru Goalkeeper
7.1
4
Léo Borges
Léo Borges Defender
6.95
32
Leonardo Koutris
Leonardo Koutris
Defender85'
6.76
13
Dimitrios Keramitsis
Dimitrios Keramitsis Defender
6.89
22
Danijel Loncar
Danijel Loncar Defender
6.59
25
M. Agger
M. Agger
Attacker54'
6.56
41
Attila Szalai
Attila Szalai Defender
6.81
3
Kellyn Acosta
Kellyn Acosta Midfielder
6.72
6
Jan Bieganski
Jan Bieganski Midfielder
6.66
30
Jacek Samuel Czapliński
Jacek Samuel Czapliński
Midfielder69'
6.94
8
Fredrik Ulvestad
Fredrik Ulvestad Midfielder
7.03
47
N. Lawa
N. Lawa Midfielder
6.49
19
Mor Ndiaye
Mor Ndiaye
Midfielder85'
6.83
11
Kamil Grosicki
Kamil Grosicki Attacker
7.1
24
Karol Angielski
Karol Angielski
Attacker53'
6.59
18
Paul Mukairu
Paul Mukairu Attacker
6.76
Referee : Patryk Gryckiewicz

Starting XI ▼

1
Plamen Andreev
Plamen Andreev Goalkeeper
6.59
2
Joel Pereira
Joel Pereira Defender
7.15
15
Michal Gurgul
Michal Gurgul Defender
6.8
20
Robert Gumny
Robert Gumny Defender
6.63
27
Wojciech Monka
Wojciech Monka Defender
6.93
8
Ali Gholizadeh
Ali Gholizadeh Midfielder
7.08
88
Taofeek Ismaheel
Taofeek Ismaheel
Midfielder79'
6.94
43
Antoni Kozubal
Antoni Kozubal Midfielder
6.87
77
Luis Palma
Luis Palma Midfielder
7.21
6
Timothy Ouma
Timothy Ouma
Midfielder63'
6.64
99
Pablo Rodríguez
Pablo Rodríguez Midfielder
6.82
24
Filip Jagiello
Filip Jagiello
Midfielder46'
6.88
9
Mikael Ishak
Mikael Ishak Attacker
7.22
7
Yannick Agnero
Yannick Agnero
Attacker71'
6.63
10
Patrik Wålemark
Patrik Wålemark Attacker
6.69
11
Daniel Håkans
Daniel Håkans
Midfielder63'
6.44

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Dimitrios Keramitsis
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90+6'
86'
Event
Taofeek Ismaheel
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Leonardo Koutris → Léo Borges
9th Substitution
85'
Event
Mor Ndiaye → N. Lawa
10th Substitution
85'
Event
Paul Mukairu
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
80'
79'
Event
Taofeek Ismaheel → Ali Gholizadeh
8th Substitution
79'
Event
Robert Gumny
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
Event
N. Lawa
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
78'
71'
Event
Yannick Agnero → Mikael Ishak
7th Substitution
Event
Jacek Samuel Czapliński → Jan Bieganski
6th Substitution
69'
63'
Event
Timothy Ouma → Luis Palma
5th Substitution
63'
Event
Daniel Håkans → Patrik Wålemark
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Luis Palma
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
M. Agger → Danijel Loncar
3rd Substitution
54'
Event
Karol Angielski → Kamil Grosicki
2nd Substitution
53'
46'
Event
Filip Jagiello → Pablo Rodríguez
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Kellyn Acosta
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
45'
35'
Event
Antoni Kozubal
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
33'
Event
Pablo Rodríguez
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Lech Poznań's triumph over Pogoń Szczecin reinforces their status as the stronger outfit, capitalizing on superior finishing despite ceding possession. The 2-1 scoreline, with a halftime lead, reflects disciplined execution and defensive solidity that frustrated the hosts' attacks. Market alignment validates pre-match favoritism, while the significant deviation highlights Lech's overachievement in converting chances. Absent xG data limits deeper insights, yet the clean contest without reds or disruptions points to a fair reflection of form. This victory bolsters Lech's campaign momentum, exposing Pogoń's need for sharper conversion rates.

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