Piast Gliwice vs Arka Gdynia Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Miejski Mon, 27 Apr - 5:00 PM
Ekstraklasa
Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice
4 Winner 1
Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia
Full Time Mon, 27 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
Quentin Boisgard - 10'
Filip Borowski - 48'
Igor Drapinski - 82'
Hugo Vallejo - 90+1'
Goal
|
Goal
Dawid Kocyla - 54'

Piast Gliwice vs Arka Gdynia preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

Piast Gliwice delivered a dominant 4-1 win against Arka Gdynia, leading 1-0 at halftime before scoring three second-half goals to seal the victory. The home team held 64% possession compared to Arka's 36%, underscoring their control throughout the match. As the identified stronger team, Piast's performance resulted in a minimal structural deviation of 2.1%, aligning closely with expectations. No red cards were issued, and there were no notable second-half adjustments or disruptive events. Efficiency levels stayed in line with anticipated patterns, reflecting a straightforward execution of Piast's superiority. The final score accurately captured the home side's superiority without any major anomalies.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Result showed minimal 2.1% structural deviation favoring Piast Gliwice.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No events or adjustments significantly impacted the match.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Marciniak
S. Marciniak
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.81
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.42
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
T. Listkiewicz
T. Listkiewicz
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.81
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.42
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
A. Kupsik
A. Kupsik
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.81
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.42
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
M. Kuropatwa
M. Kuropatwa
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.81
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.42
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
Piast Gliwice D. Myśliwiec
D. Myśliwiec
VS
Arka Gdynia D. Banasik
D. Banasik
1.61
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.19
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: D
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: L
Nieciecza Rank: L
Radomiak Radom Rank: W
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: W
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: L
Cracovia Kraków Rank: D
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: W
Korona Kielce Rank: L
Widzew Lodz Rank: D
Wisła Płock Rank: W
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 4 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Piast Gliwice
97.89%
Draw
1.92%
Away Arka Gdynia
0.2%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
26.08
25.21
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Piast Gliwice
Arka Gdynia
Power Score
26.08
25.21
League Position
9
17
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Piast Gliwice — Opponent-weighted form score
Arka Gdynia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Piast Gliwice Arka Gdynia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Piast Gliwice

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Arka Gdynia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Piast Gliwice ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Arka Gdynia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
41.09
25.14
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.14
41.09
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Piast Gliwice +1.46 Efficiency Index
vs
Arka Gdynia -1.46 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Piast Gliwice
Arka Gdynia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Piast Gliwice ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Arka Gdynia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Piast Gliwice Arka Gdynia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Piast Gliwice Arka Gdynia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Piast Gliwice
Arka Gdynia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Piast Gliwice
vs
Arka Gdynia
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Piast Gliwice Arka Gdynia
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Piast Gliwice 0.52
Arka Gdynia 0.17
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Piast Gliwice Arka Gdynia
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Piast Gliwice 0.02
Arka Gdynia 0.09
Piast Gliwice
Arka Gdynia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Piast Gliwice had peak pressure around 35'.
  • Piast Gliwice started the game with stronger pressure.
Piast Gliwice Pressure Arka Gdynia Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Piast Gliwice reached the top pressure at 35' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 15 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice Home
15 matches
Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia Away
Match Record
7
Wins
4
4
Draws
4
4
Losses
7
Goals
21
Goals Scored
15
15
Goals Conceded
21
+6
Goal Difference
-6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-28T00:02:06+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Holec
Slovakia
30 D. Holec
F. Borowski
Poland
28 F. Borowski
J. Rivas Margalef
Spain
5 J. Rivas Margalef
I. Drapiński
Poland
29 I. Drapiński
J. Lewicki
Substitution
Poland
36 J. Lewicki
P. Dziczek
Poland
10 P. Dziczek
J. Eyenga-Lokilo
Substitution
DR Congo
98 J. Eyenga-Lokilo
Q. Boisgard
Substitution
France
17 Q. Boisgard
G. Tomasiewicz
Substitution
Poland
20 G. Tomasiewicz
Leandro Sanca
Substitution
Guinea-Bissau
11 Leandro Sanca
J. Muñoz García
Spain
7 J. Muñoz García
J. Grobelny
Poland
1 J. Grobelny
D. Gojny
Poland
94 D. Gojny
M. Marcjanik
Poland
29 M. Marcjanik
S. Szota
Poland
3 S. Szota
M. Navarro Ceciliano
Substitution
Spain
2 M. Navarro Ceciliano
A. Nguiamba
Substitution
France
10 A. Nguiamba
L. Perea Hernández
Substitution
Spain
6 L. Perea Hernández
N. Rusyn
Substitution
Ukraine
31 N. Rusyn
S. Kerk
Germany
37 S. Kerk
Oskar Kubiak
Substitution
7 Oskar Kubiak
V. Gutkovskis
Latvia
19 V. Gutkovskis

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 27, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Miejski
Capacity
15139
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Szymon Marciniak
Tomasz Listkiewicz
Adam Kupsik
Maciej Kuropatwa

Statistics

Possession
Piast Gliwice
60%
Arka Gdynia
40%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 2
16 Shots 5
46 Dangerous attacks 41
64 Possession 36
6 Corners 5
6 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

17 Goal Attempts 4
1 Injuries 2
1 Hit Woodwork 0
82 Ball Safe 83
12 Throwins 22
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 29
16 Dribble Attempts 14
5 Goal Kicks 10
1 Penalties 0
6 Successful Dribbles 4
3 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 1
92 Attacks 80

Possession

83 Successful Passes Percentage 67
512 Passes 284
18 Successful Long Passes 21
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
423 Successful Passes 191
50 Long Passes 64
17 Key Passes 6

Defensive

44 Duels Won 56
15 Tackles 19
2 Interceptions 11
2 Saves 8

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 13
9 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

11 Fouls 7
1 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Szymon Marciniak

Starting XI ▼

30
Dominik Holec
Dominik Holec Goalkeeper
7.54
5
Juande Rivas
Juande Rivas Defender
7.03
28
Filip Borowski
Filip Borowski Defender
6.48
29
Igor Drapinski
Igor Drapinski Defender
6.85
36
Jakub Lewicki
Jakub Lewicki Defender
6.76
3
Elton Fikaj
Elton Fikaj
Defender60'
6.49
10
Patryk Dziczek
Patryk Dziczek Midfielder
7.07
11
Leandro Sanca
Leandro Sanca Midfielder
7
80
Hugo Vallejo
Hugo Vallejo
Attacker60'
6.75
17
Quentin Boisgard
Quentin Boisgard Midfielder
6.65
63
German Barkovskiy
German Barkovskiy
Attacker68'
6.84
20
Grzegorz Tomasiewicz
Grzegorz Tomasiewicz Midfielder
6.81
6
Michal Chrapek
Michal Chrapek
Midfielder78'
6.75
98
Jason Lokilo
Jason Lokilo Midfielder
6.82
31
Oskar Lesniak
Oskar Lesniak
Midfielder68'
6.8
7
Jorge Félix
Jorge Félix Attacker
6.87
Referee : Szymon Marciniak

Starting XI ▼

1
Jedrzej Grobelny
Jedrzej Grobelny Goalkeeper
6.63
2
Marc Navarro
Marc Navarro Defender
6.91
4
Dominick Zator
Dominick Zator
Defender68'
6.47
3
Serafin Szota
Serafin Szota Defender
6.55
29
Michal Marcjanik
Michal Marcjanik Defender
6.72
94
Dawid Gojny
Dawid Gojny Defender
6.78
6
Luis Perea
Luis Perea Midfielder
6.49
99
Edu Espiau
Edu Espiau
Attacker82'
6.72
7
O. Kubiak
O. Kubiak Midfielder
6.87
11
Dawid Kocyla
Dawid Kocyla
Midfielder23'
6.68
10
Aurélien Nguiamba
Aurélien Nguiamba Midfielder
6.58
35
Kamil Jakubczyk
Kamil Jakubczyk
Midfielder46'
6.74
31
Nazariy Rusyn
Nazariy Rusyn Midfielder
6.73
27
João Oliveira
João Oliveira
Midfielder68'
6.65
37
Sebastian Kerk
Sebastian Kerk Midfielder
7.05
19
Vladislavs Gutkovskis
Vladislavs Gutkovskis Attacker
6.87

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Hugo Vallejo
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
90+1'
Event
Igor Drapinski
Header / 4th Goal
82'
82'
Event
Edu Espiau → Luis Perea
10th Substitution
Event
Michal Chrapek → Grzegorz Tomasiewicz
9th Substitution
78'
Event
Patryk Dziczek
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
69'
Event
German Barkovskiy → Quentin Boisgard
5th Substitution
68'
Event
Oskar Lesniak → Jason Lokilo
6th Substitution
68'
68'
Event
Dominick Zator → Marc Navarro
8th Substitution
68'
Event
João Oliveira → Nazariy Rusyn
7th Substitution
Event
Elton Fikaj → Jakub Lewicki
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Hugo Vallejo → Leandro Sanca
4th Substitution
60'
54'
Event
Dawid Kocyla
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Filip Borowski
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
48'
46'
Event
Kamil Jakubczyk → Aurélien Nguiamba
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
44'
Event
Vladislavs Gutkovskis
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Jakub Lewicki
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
40'
23'
Event
Dawid Kocyla → O. Kubiak
1st Substitution
Event
Quentin Boisgard
Header / 1st Goal
10'
Event
Patryk Dziczek
OffTarget
8'
7'
Event
Aurélien Nguiamba
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Piast Gliwice's 4-1 triumph over Arka Gdynia exemplified expected dominance, with 64% possession and a halftime lead translating into a controlled second half. The minimal 2.1% deviation and market alignment highlight a performance true to form for the stronger side. Absence of red cards or events ensured the scoreline reflected genuine superiority without distortions. Efficiency in line with norms further validates the result's reliability, providing a clear post-match narrative of Piast's command.

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

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