Palermo vs Mantova Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Renzo Barbera
Fri, 6 Mar - 2:06 PM
Serie B
Palermo
PAL
2
1
1
Mantova
MAN
Full Time
Fri, 6 Mar
2:06 PM
Filippo Ranocchia - 2'
Joel Pohjanpalo - 38'
|
Tommaso Marras - 68' (P)
Alexis Blin 67'
Alexis Blin 67'
|
Federico Zuccon 32'
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Apr 16
CONTEXT
The match between Palermo and Mantova has finished, with Palermo securing a 2-1 full-time victory over the visitors. The home side established control early, building a comfortable 2-0 lead by half-time before holding out for the win. This outcome aligned exactly with the pre-match market, which heavily favored the stronger Palermo side with a 62.6% win probability, compared to just 15.1% for Mantova and 22.4% for a draw. Despite winning as expected, Palermo still experienced a significant performance deviation level of 37.4%. In terms of match flow, Palermo maintained a slight edge with 54% possession, leaving Mantova with 46% of the ball. Expected goals (xG) data was completely unavailable for this fixture, meaning it cannot be determined if the final score was consistent with the underlying shot quality. However, the overall finishing was in line with the expected efficiency shifts for both clubs. The match was ultimately defined by extreme disciplinary issues, featuring three total dismissals. Palermo received two red cards and Mantova received one, causing massive red card distortion in the second half. Despite finishing with nine men, Palermo successfully protected their early advantage to claim the points.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Palermo showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
-
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
-
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
-
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
-
Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
-
Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
G. Ayroldi
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
5.96
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
0.91
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.13
D. Fontemurato
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
5.96
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
0.91
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.13
G. Zanellati
2nd Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
5.96
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
0.91
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.13
A. Iannello
4th Official
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
5.96
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
0.91
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.13
F. Inzaghi
VS
F. Modesto
1.96
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
0.96
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Südtirol
Rank:
W
Virtus Entella
Rank:
W
Sampdoria
Rank:
D
Empoli
Rank:
W
Bari 1908
Rank:
W
Modena
Rank:
D
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Carrarese
Rank:
D
Sampdoria
Rank:
W
Catanzaro
Rank:
L
Reggiana
Rank:
L
Bari 1908
Rank:
W
Pescara
Rank:
D
1
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 3 - 0
0
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Palermo
62.57%
Draw
22.35%
Mantova
15.08%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64.29
32.14
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Palermo
Mantova
Power Score
64.29
32.14
League Position
4
18
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Palermo
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Mantova
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Palermo Mantova
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Palermo
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Mantova
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Palermo
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Mantova
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
37.13
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.04
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Palermo
+1.86
Efficiency Index
vs
Mantova
-1.86
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Palermo
Mantova
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Palermo
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Mantova
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Palermo
Mantova
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
1.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Palermo
Mantova
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Palermo
Mantova
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Palermo
PAL
Home
4
matches
Mantova
MAN
Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
3
Draws
3
0
Losses
1
Goals
5
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
5
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-03-07T11:18:53+00:00
TEAM FORMATION
No team formation data available.
General Information
Date & Time
Mar 06, 2026, 02:06 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadium
Stadio Renzo Barbera
Capacity
36365
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Giovanni Ayroldi
Domenico Fontemurato
Glauco Zanellati
Alfredo Iannello
Statistics
Possession
PAL
55%
MAN
45%
Top Statistics
2
Goals
1
2
Big Chances Created
1
17
Shots
7
61
Dangerous attacks
26
54
Possession
46
9
Corners
2
12
Free kicks
22
4
Yellow Cards
4
1
Red Cards
1
Match Overview
6
Goal Kicks
9
2
Assists
0
22
Throwins
18
1
Successful Dribbles
4
8
Dribble Attempts
12
13
Successful Dribbles Percentage
33
72
Ball Safe
79
11
Goal Attempts
5
5
Substitutions
5
0
Penalties
1
Attacking
90
Attacks
68
1
Big Chances Missed
0
Possession
82
Successful Passes Percentage
79
297
Successful Passes
252
364
Passes
321
26
Successful Long Passes
13
58
Successful Long Passes Percentage
27
45
Long Passes
49
14
Key Passes
2
Defensive
15
Tackles
14
2
Saves
3
7
Interceptions
4
Build-up
28
Total Crosses
13
10
Accurate Crosses
1
Discipline
22
Fouls
15
0
Offsides
4
Events
2ND-HALF
Emmanuel Gyasi
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
90+2'
Emmanuel Gyasi → Niccolò Pierozzi
9th Substitution
85'
Giangiacomo Magnani → Patryk Peda
10th Substitution
85'
Patryk Peda
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
81'
Dennis Johnsen → Jérémy Le Douaron
7th Substitution
77'
77'
Leonardo Mancuso → Alessio Castellini
8th Substitution
77'
Nicolò Buso → Maat Daniel Caprini
6th Substitution
Niccolò Pierozzi
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
75'
71'
Nicolò Radaelli
Simulation / 4th Yellowcard
70'
Alessio Castellini
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Claudio Gomes → Antonio Palumbo
5th Substitution
69'
68'
Tommaso Marras
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
Alexis Blin
2nd Yellow/red Card
67'
Alexis Blin
Professional handball / 1st Redcard
67'
54'
Tommaso Maggioni → Ali Dembélé
3rd Substitution
54'
Tommaso Marras → Davis Mensah
4th Substitution
Alexis Blin → Filippo Ranocchia
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Flavio Paoletti → Davide Bragantini
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Joel Pohjanpalo
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
38'
32'
Federico Zuccon
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
Filippo Ranocchia
Handball / 2nd Yellowcard
19'
8th Yellowcard
19'
17'
Federico Zuccon
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
12'
Var
Filippo Ranocchia
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
2'
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Palermo exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.