Osijek vs Varaždin Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Gradski vrt Fri, 17 Apr - 6:15 PM
1. HNL
Osijek Osijek
0 Winner 2
Varaždin Varaždin
Full Time Fri, 17 Apr 6:15 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
|
Goal
Iuri Tavares - 11', 30'

Osijek vs Varaždin preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

In a stunning upset at Opus Arena, Osijek suffered a 0-2 defeat to Varaždin, who capitalized on first-half opportunities despite being thoroughly outpossessed. Osijek controlled 74% of the ball, launching wave after wave of attacks, but their finishing was woeful, failing to breach a resolute Varaždin defense. The visitors struck twice before halftime, with clinical counters exposing Osijek's vulnerability on the break. The second half saw Osijek push desperately for a comeback, but Varaždin's backline held firm, frustrating the home crowd. This result marks a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, where Osijek were clear favorites. Varaždin's efficiency in possession-poor conditions highlighted their tactical discipline under pressure.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Varaždin recorded a 70.7% significant structural deviation by winning despite 26% possession.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency stayed in line with expectations amid the lopsided possession battle.
  • xG alignment: xG data absence prevents determination of outcome consistency with chance creation.
  • Market alignment: Pre-match market views misaligned as Varaždin triumphed over favored Osijek.
  • xG expectations: Missing xG figures leave performance against expected chances unevaluable.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match trajectory.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured the result faced no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
I. Vukančić
I. Vukančić
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.03
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.66
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
B. Zobenica
B. Zobenica
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.03
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.66
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
F. Krznarić
F. Krznarić
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.03
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.66
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
A. Terzić
A. Terzić
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.03
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.66
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Osijek T. Radotic
T. Radotic
VS
Varaždin N. Šafarić
N. Šafarić
0.95
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.45
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rijeka Rank: W
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: L
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: D
Gorica Rank: D
Istra 1961 Rank: W
Vukovar Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: W
Gorica Rank: D
Istra 1961 Rank: L
Vukovar Rank: W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: D
Hajduk Split Rank: D
17
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
17 - 14 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Osijek
41.42%
Draw
29.29%
Away Varaždin
29.29%

Movement

Changes since opening
Osijek
+41.22%
Draw
+27.37%
Varaždin
-68.6%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
22.38
23.96
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Osijek
Varaždin
Power Score
22.38
23.96
League Position
9
3
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Osijek — Opponent-weighted form score
Varaždin — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Osijek Varaždin

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Osijek

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Varaždin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Osijek ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Varaždin
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
37.50
51.92
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
51.92
37.50
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Osijek -1.47 Efficiency Index
vs
Varaždin +1.47 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Osijek
Varaždin
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Osijek ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Varaždin
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Osijek Varaždin
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Osijek Varaždin
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Osijek
Varaždin
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Osijek
vs
Varaždin
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Osijek Varaždin
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Osijek 0.16
Varaždin 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Osijek Varaždin
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Osijek 0.04
Varaždin 0.00
Osijek
Varaždin
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Osijek had peak pressure around 84'.
  • Osijek started the game with stronger pressure.
Osijek Pressure Varaždin Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Osijek reached the top pressure at 84' (79.26).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 41 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Osijek Osijek Home
41 matches
Varaždin Varaždin Away
Match Record
17
Wins
10
14
Draws
14
10
Losses
17
Goals
55
Goals Scored
44
44
Goals Conceded
55
+11
Goal Difference
-11
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-18T00:02:39+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
M. Malenica
Croatia
31 M. Malenica
I. Kolarik
Substitution
49 I. Kolarik
J. Mersinaj
Albania
5 J. Mersinaj
L. Jelenić
Substitution
Croatia
26 L. Jelenić
D. Bukvić
Croatia
39 D. Bukvić
D. Mejía Moscoso
Substitution
Colombia
6 D. Mejía Moscoso
O. Petrusenko
Ukraine
16 O. Petrusenko
D. Čolina
Croatia
38 D. Čolina
S. Akere
Nigeria
57 S. Akere
A. Matković
Substitution
Croatia
34 A. Matković
N. Omerović
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
11 N. Omerović
O. Zelenika
Croatia
1 O. Zelenika
G. Sikošek
Slovenia
20 G. Sikošek
R. Punčec
Substitution
Croatia
14 R. Punčec
M. Mladenovski
Macedonia
13 M. Mladenovski
F. Maglica
Croatia
23 F. Maglica
D. Puclin
Substitution
Croatia
6 D. Puclin
Iuri Tavares
Cape Verde
38 Iuri Tavares
L. Mamić
Substitution
Croatia
22 L. Mamić
I. Canjuga
Croatia
28 I. Canjuga
M. Vuk
Substitution
Croatia
7 M. Vuk
A. Latković
Substitution
Montenegro
10 A. Latković

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 17, 2026, 06:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Gradski vrt
Capacity
1000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ivan Vukančić
Bojan Zobenica
Filip Krznarić
Ante Terzić

Statistics

Possession
Osijek
68%
Varaždin
32%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 3
7 Shots 1
135 Dangerous attacks 50
74 Possession 26
8 Corners 3
15 Free kicks 10
2 Yellow Cards 5

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0
64 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
14 Dribble Attempts 8
3 Goal Kicks 16
9 Successful Dribbles 3
37 Throwins 19
0 Assists 2

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 1
197 Attacks 88

Possession

521 Successful Passes 128
89 Successful Passes Percentage 61
16 Successful Long Passes 19
30 Long Passes 62
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 31
12 Key Passes 6
587 Passes 209

Defensive

5 Saves 5
44 Duels Won 47
8 Tackles 21
7 Interceptions 15

Build-up

31 Total Crosses 14
4 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

10 Fouls 15
1 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Ivan Vukančić

Starting XI ▼

31
Marko Malenica
Marko Malenica Goalkeeper
6.91
5
Jon Mersinaj
Jon Mersinaj Defender
6.59
26
Luka Jelenic
Luka Jelenic Defender
6.81
99
Tonio Teklic
Tonio Teklic
Midfielder46'
6.76
49
Ivano Kolarik
Ivano Kolarik Defender
6.55
21
Vladan Bubanja
Vladan Bubanja
Midfielder76'
6.77
6
David Mejía
David Mejía Midfielder
6.7
8
Simun Mikolcic
Simun Mikolcic
Midfielder61'
6.73
16
Oleksandr Petrusenko
Oleksandr Petrusenko Midfielder
6.66
38
David Colina
David Colina Midfielder
6.69
39
Domagoj Bukvic
Domagoj Bukvic Midfielder
6.64
11
Nail Omerovic
Nail Omerovic Attacker
6.93
3
Borna Barisic
Borna Barisic
Defender61'
6.8
34
Anton Matkovic
Anton Matkovic Attacker
6.66
17
Arnel Jakupovic
Arnel Jakupovic
Attacker46'
6.83
57
Samuel Akere
Samuel Akere Attacker
6.8
Referee : Ivan Vukančić

Starting XI ▼

1
Oliver Zelenika
Oliver Zelenika Goalkeeper
6.87
13
Mario Mladenovski
Mario Mladenovski Defender
6.6
14
Roberto Puncec
Roberto Puncec Defender
6.65
44
Mateo Barac
Mateo Barac
Defender82'
6.68
20
Gregor Sikosek
Gregor Sikosek Defender
6.81
23
Frane Maglica
Frane Maglica Defender
6.78
6
David Puclin
David Puclin Midfielder
6.51
24
Mario Marina
Mario Marina
Midfielder67'
6.73
7
Matej Vuk
Matej Vuk Midfielder
6.8
16
Novak Tepsic
Novak Tepsic
Defender53'
6.69
22
Luka Mamic
Luka Mamic Midfielder
6.67
8
Tomislav Duvnjak
Tomislav Duvnjak
Midfielder46'
6.83
28
Ivan Canjuga
Ivan Canjuga Midfielder
6.46
38
Iuri Tavares
Iuri Tavares Midfielder
2
6.92
10
Aleksa Latkovic
Aleksa Latkovic Attacker
7.15
15
Silvio Ilinkovic
Silvio Ilinkovic
Midfielder67'
6.93

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Mario Mladenovski
Time wasting / 7th Yellowcard
85'
Event
Ivan Canjuga
Time wasting / 6th Yellowcard
82'
Event
Mateo Barac → Roberto Puncec
10th Substitution
Event
Vladan Bubanja → Ivano Kolarik
9th Substitution
76'
67'
Event
Silvio Ilinkovic → Aleksa Latkovic
7th Substitution
67'
Event
Mario Marina → David Puclin
8th Substitution
Event
Ivano Kolarik
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
63'
Event
Borna Barisic → Nail Omerovic
5th Substitution
61'
Event
Simun Mikolcic → David Mejía
6th Substitution
61'
60'
Event
Tomislav Duvnjak
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
53'
Event
Novak Tepsic → Matej Vuk
4th Substitution
47'
Event
Gregor Sikosek
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Arnel Jakupovic → Anton Matkovic
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Tonio Teklic → Luka Jelenic
3rd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Tomislav Duvnjak → Luka Mamic
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Samuel Akere
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
33'
30'
Event
Iuri Tavares
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
27'
Event
Luka Mamic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
11'
Event
Iuri Tavares
Header / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Varaždin exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

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