Osijek vs Lokomotiva Zagreb Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Gradski vrt Sat, 25 Apr - 4:15 PM
1. HNL
Osijek Osijek
0 – 0
Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb
Full Time Sat, 25 Apr 4:15 PM
Round 32 Regular Season

Osijek vs Lokomotiva Zagreb preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

In a closely fought Croatian HNL encounter at Opus Arena, Osijek faced Lokomotiva Zagreb, resulting in a tense 0-0 draw. Osijek, deemed the stronger team, controlled 51% possession but found it difficult to penetrate Lokomotiva's compact defense. The halftime score stood at 0-0, reflecting early caution from both sides. In the second half, Osijek increased pressure without yielding goals, while Lokomotiva relied on disciplined organization and counter-threats to hold firm. No red cards were issued, ensuring uninterrupted play with full squads. This outcome marked a significant structural deviation for Osijek, diverging sharply from pre-match expectations despite their edge. The near-even possession highlighted a balanced contest where defensive resilience trumped attacking intent, leaving fans with a sense of frustration.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Osijek faced a significant 70.7% structural deviation in the 0-0 draw.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency for both teams remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment assessment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Match outcome did not align with pre-market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without data.
  • Event impact: No key events influenced the match progression.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards meant no distortion from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Erceg
M. Erceg
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.88
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.12
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.43
A. Jakšić
A. Jakšić
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.88
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.12
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.43
K. Kuduz
K. Kuduz
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.88
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.12
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.43
J. Titlić
J. Titlić
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.88
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.12
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.43
Osijek T. Radotic
T. Radotic
VS
Lokomotiva Zagreb N. Jelavić
N. Jelavić
1.05
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.14
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hajduk Split Rank: W
Varaždin Rank: L
Rijeka Rank: W
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: L
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: D
Gorica Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: W
Gorica Rank: W
Istra 1961 Rank: W
Vukovar Rank: D
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: L
Hajduk Split Rank: L
22
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
22 - 19 - 19
19

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Osijek
37.71%
Draw
29.27%
Away Lokomotiva Zagreb
33.02%

Movement

Changes since opening
Osijek
+32.82%
Draw
-60.95%
Lokomotiva Zagreb
+28.13%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
23.58
22.52
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Osijek
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Power Score
23.58
22.52
League Position
9
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Osijek — Opponent-weighted form score
Lokomotiva Zagreb — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Osijek Lokomotiva Zagreb

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Osijek

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lokomotiva Zagreb

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Osijek ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lokomotiva Zagreb
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.20
17.35
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.35
30.20
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Osijek +1.31 Efficiency Index
vs
Lokomotiva Zagreb -1.31 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Osijek
Lokomotiva Zagreb
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Osijek ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lokomotiva Zagreb
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Osijek Lokomotiva Zagreb
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Osijek Lokomotiva Zagreb
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Osijek
Lokomotiva Zagreb
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Osijek
vs
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Osijek Lokomotiva Zagreb
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Osijek 0.50
Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.23
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Osijek Lokomotiva Zagreb
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Osijek 0.00
Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.00
Osijek
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Osijek had peak pressure around 28'.
  • Lokomotiva Zagreb started the game with stronger pressure.
Osijek Pressure Lokomotiva Zagreb Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Osijek reached the top pressure at 28' (69.49).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 60 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Osijek Osijek Home
60 matches
Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb Away
Match Record
22
Wins
19
19
Draws
19
19
Losses
22
Goals
84
Goals Scored
73
73
Goals Conceded
84
+11
Goal Difference
-11
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-26T00:06:22+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Malenica
Croatia
31 M. Malenica
M. Jovičić
Substitution
98 M. Jovičić
I. Kolarik
Substitution
49 I. Kolarik
L. Jelenić
Croatia
26 L. Jelenić
D. Čolina
Croatia
38 D. Čolina
D. Mejía Moscoso
Substitution
Colombia
6 D. Mejía Moscoso
O. Petrusenko
Ukraine
16 O. Petrusenko
S. Akere
Nigeria
57 S. Akere
V. Bubanja
Substitution
Montenegro
21 V. Bubanja
D. Bukvić
Substitution
Croatia
39 D. Bukvić
A. Jakupovic
Austria
17 A. Jakupovic
J. Posavec
Croatia
12 J. Posavec
M. Pajač
Croatia
17 M. Pajač
L. Dajčer
Croatia
16 L. Dajčer
D. Kolinger
Croatia
20 D. Kolinger
T. Jukić
Germany
5 T. Jukić
M. Subotic
Substitution
Croatia
10 M. Subotic
B. Bošković
Bosnia and Herzegovina
6 B. Bošković
L. Belcar
Substitution
Croatia
28 L. Belcar
J. Vasilj
Substitution
Croatia
29 J. Vasilj
M. Šušak
Substitution
Croatia
11 M. Šušak
A. Stojaković
Substitution
Slovenia
15 A. Stojaković

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 25, 2026, 04:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Gradski vrt
Capacity
1000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Mateo Erceg
Alen Jakšić
Kristijan Kuduz
Jakov Titlić

Statistics

Possession
Osijek
50%
Lokomotiva Zagreb
50%

Top Statistics

3 Big Chances Created 0
5 Shots 1
28 Dangerous attacks 30
51 Possession 49
9 Corners 9
15 Free kicks 15
2 Yellow Cards 5

Match Overview

10 Dribble Attempts 18
5 Successful Dribbles 9
4 Goal Kicks 7
5 Substitutions 5
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
19 Throwins 28

Attacking

62 Attacks 58
3 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

44 Long Passes 46
15 Successful Long Passes 23
309 Successful Passes 300
390 Passes 371
34 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50
79 Successful Passes Percentage 81

Defensive

22 Tackles 11
11 Interceptions 10
53 Duels Won 49
1 Saves 4

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 28
5 Accurate Crosses 9

Discipline

15 Fouls 15
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Mateo Erceg

Starting XI ▼

31
Marko Malenica
Marko Malenica Goalkeeper
6.95
26
Luka Jelenic
Luka Jelenic Defender
6.78
38
David Colina
David Colina Defender
6.71
49
Ivano Kolarik
Ivano Kolarik Defender
6.57
5
Jon Mersinaj
Jon Mersinaj
Defender83'
6.62
98
Miloš Jovičić
Miloš Jovičić Defender
6.43
23
Luka Vrbancic
Luka Vrbancic
Midfielder46'
6.72
6
David Mejía
David Mejía Midfielder
6.7
99
Tonio Teklic
Tonio Teklic
Midfielder67'
6.79
16
Oleksandr Petrusenko
Oleksandr Petrusenko Midfielder
6.71
39
Domagoj Bukvic
Domagoj Bukvic Midfielder
6.65
3
Borna Barisic
Borna Barisic
Defender66'
6.81
57
Samuel Akere
Samuel Akere Midfielder
6.81
17
Arnel Jakupovic
Arnel Jakupovic Attacker
6.87
21
Vladan Bubanja
Vladan Bubanja Attacker
6.81
11
Nail Omerovic
Nail Omerovic
Defender76'
6.9
Referee : Mateo Erceg

Starting XI ▼

12
Josip Posavec
Josip Posavec Goalkeeper
6.71
5
Tino Jukic
Tino Jukic Defender
6.72
16
Luka Dajcer
Luka Dajcer Defender
6.61
17
Marko Pajac
Marko Pajac Defender
7.11
20
Denis Kolinger
Denis Kolinger Defender
6.73
6
Blaz Boskovic
Blaz Boskovic Midfielder
6.91
10
Matija Subotic
Matija Subotic Midfielder
6.69
25
Pavle Smiljanic
Pavle Smiljanic
Midfielder90+1'
11
Mirko Susak
Mirko Susak Midfielder
6.66
30
Dušan Vuković
Dušan Vuković
Attacker66'
6.65
28
Leon Belcar
Leon Belcar Midfielder
6.73
2
Teodor Kralevski
Teodor Kralevski
Defender90+1'
29
Jakov-Anton Vasilj
Jakov-Anton Vasilj Midfielder
6.71
23
Marko Vesovic
Marko Vesovic
Defender76'
6.89
15
Aleks Stojakovic
Aleks Stojakovic Attacker
6.81
9
Ibrahim Sabra
Ibrahim Sabra
Attacker76'
6.68

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Pavle Smiljanic → Matija Subotic
10th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Teodor Kralevski → Leon Belcar
9th Substitution
86'
Event
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
84'
Event
Tino Jukic
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Jon Mersinaj → Ivano Kolarik
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Nail Omerovic → Vladan Bubanja
5th Substitution
76'
76'
Event
Ibrahim Sabra → Aleks Stojakovic
6th Substitution
76'
Event
Marko Vesovic → Jakov-Anton Vasilj
7th Substitution
Event
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
74'
Event
Tonio Teklic → David Mejía
4th Substitution
67'
Event
Borna Barisic → Domagoj Bukvic
2nd Substitution
66'
66'
Event
Dušan Vuković → Mirko Susak
3rd Substitution
55'
Event
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Luka Vrbancic → Miloš Jovičić
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
24'
Event
Luka Dajcer
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
3'
Event
8th Yellowcard
3'
3'
Event
Argument / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Osijek's 0-0 draw against Lokomotiva Zagreb underscores a missed opportunity at home against a resilient visitor. Despite slight possession dominance and status as the stronger side, Osijek could not capitalize, leading to a significant deviation from expectations. Defensive solidity defined the game, with efficiency holding steady and no disruptive incidents like red cards. Market views favoring Osijek went unfulfilled, while absent xG data prevents precise chance evaluation. This stalemate highlights the need for Osijek to enhance clinical finishing, as tactical discipline from Lokomotiva secured a hard-earned point on the road.

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

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