Obolon'-Brovar vs SK Poltava Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Obolon' Arena Fri, 17 Apr - 3:00 PM
Premier League
Obolon'-Brovar Obolon'-Brovar
1 – 1
SK Poltava SK Poltava
Full Time Fri, 17 Apr 3:00 PM
Round 24 Regular Season
Oleg Slobodyan - 82' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
V. Sad - 54' (P)
|
Second yellow card Oleg Veremiyenko 67'

Obolon'-Brovar vs SK Poltava preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

Obolon'-Brovar and SK Poltava played out a 1-1 draw in a match marked by resilience and disruption. The home side, considered stronger, held 53% possession but struggled to convert dominance into a win. The first half ended 0-0, even at halftime. Tension escalated in the second half when SK Poltava received a red card, yet they equalized and held firm against numerical disadvantage. This outcome defied expectations, showing a significant 75.7% structural deviation attributed to Obolon'-Brovar. Market views did not align with the result, while efficiency remained in line with norms. The red card introduced distortion, altering second-half dynamics and preventing a home victory despite their edge.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match exhibited 75.7% significant structural deviation for Obolon'-Brovar.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Market expectations did not align with the draw.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable from available data.
  • Event impact: Away red card significantly influenced game flow.
  • Red card distortion: Red card caused second-half distortion as per adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
O. Solovyan
O. Solovyan
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.41
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.71
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.29
M. Levchenko
M. Levchenko
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.41
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.71
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.29
I. Sadkovskiy
I. Sadkovskiy
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.41
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.71
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.29
S. Dariichuk
S. Dariichuk
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.41
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.71
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.29
Obolon'-Brovar O. Antonenko
O. Antonenko
VS
SK Poltava P. Matviychenko
P. Matviychenko
0.87
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.4
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Veres Rank: L
Zorya Luhansk Rank: D
Karpaty Rank: L
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: L
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Rank: D
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Polissya Zhytomyr Rank: L
Oleksandria Rank: D
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Rank: L
Karpaty Rank: L
Zorya Luhansk Rank: L
Kudrivka Rank: L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Obolon'-Brovar
62.11%
Draw
24.26%
Away SK Poltava
13.63%

Movement

Changes since opening
Obolon'-Brovar
+54.94%
Draw
-65.36%
SK Poltava
+10.42%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
14.23
10.8
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Obolon'-Brovar
SK Poltava
Power Score
14.23
10.8
League Position
11
16
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Obolon'-Brovar — Opponent-weighted form score
SK Poltava — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Obolon'-Brovar SK Poltava

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Obolon'-Brovar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

SK Poltava

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Obolon'-Brovar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy SK Poltava
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
35.57
15.11
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
15.11
35.57
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Obolon'-Brovar +2.07 Efficiency Index
vs
SK Poltava -2.07 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Obolon'-Brovar
SK Poltava
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Obolon'-Brovar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy SK Poltava
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Obolon'-Brovar SK Poltava
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Obolon'-Brovar SK Poltava
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Obolon'-Brovar
SK Poltava
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Obolon'-Brovar
vs
SK Poltava
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Obolon'-Brovar SK Poltava
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Obolon'-Brovar 0.28
SK Poltava 0.27
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Obolon'-Brovar SK Poltava
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Obolon'-Brovar 0.05
SK Poltava 0.02
Obolon'-Brovar
SK Poltava
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Obolon'-Brovar had peak pressure around 86'.
  • SK Poltava started the game with stronger pressure.
Obolon'-Brovar Pressure SK Poltava Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Obolon'-Brovar reached the top pressure at 86' (47.12).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Obolon'-Brovar Obolon'-Brovar Home
1 matches
SK Poltava SK Poltava Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
2
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-18T00:01:23+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Marchenko
Ukraine
31 D. Marchenko
P. Polehenko
Ukraine
28 P. Polehenko
O. Zhovtenko
Ukraine
44 O. Zhovtenko
D. Semenov
Ukraine
50 D. Semenov
E. Shevchenko
Ukraine
5 E. Shevchenko
M. Chekh
Ukraine
6 M. Chekh
R. Volokhatiy
Substitution
Ukraine
20 R. Volokhatiy
I. Medynskyi
Substitution
Ukraine
13 I. Medynskyi
O. Slobodyan
Ukraine
10 O. Slobodyan
M. Tretyakov
Ukraine
75 M. Tretyakov
D. Ustymenko
Ukraine
9 D. Ustymenko
M. Minchev
Ukraine
1 M. Minchev
I. Kotsyumaka
Ukraine
95 I. Kotsyumaka
O. Veremiienko
Ukraine
33 O. Veremiienko
V. Pidlepych
Ukraine
5 V. Pidlepych
I. Ukhan
Ukraine
24 I. Ukhan
V. Danilenko
Substitution
Ukraine
15 V. Danilenko
A. Doroshenko
Ukraine
21 A. Doroshenko
D. Galenkov
Substitution
Ukraine
7 D. Galenkov
V. Sad
Substitution
Ukraine
10 V. Sad
V. Odariuk
Substitution
Ukraine
8 V. Odariuk
D. Sukhoruchko
Substitution
Ukraine
38 D. Sukhoruchko

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 17, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 24 · Regular Season
Stadium
Obolon' Arena
Capacity
5100
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Oleksandr Solovyan
Maksim Levchenko
Igor Sadkovskiy
Serhii Dariichuk

Statistics

Possession
Obolon'-Brovar
56%
SK Poltava
44%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
8 Shots 2
57 Dangerous attacks 22
53 Possession 47
7 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 3
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

3 Goal Kicks 10
1 Penalties 1

Attacking

106 Attacks 88

Defensive

1 Saves 7

Discipline

13 Fouls 21
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Oleksandr Solovyan

Starting XI ▼

31
Denys Marchenko
Denys Marchenko Goalkeeper
6.43
5
Yevgeniy Shevchenko
Yevgeniy Shevchenko Defender
6.17
28
Pavlo Polegenko
Pavlo Polegenko Defender
6.18
44
O. Zhovtenko
O. Zhovtenko Defender
6.35
50
Dmytro Semenov
Dmytro Semenov Defender
6.3
6
Maksym Chekh
Maksym Chekh Midfielder
6.32
10
Oleg Slobodyan
Oleg Slobodyan Midfielder
6.4
13
Igor Medynskyi
Igor Medynskyi Midfielder
6.38
55
Sergiy Sukhanov
Sergiy Sukhanov
Attacker67'
6.51
20
R. Volokhatyi
R. Volokhatyi Midfielder
6.45
90
Taras Lyakh
Taras Lyakh
83'
6.68
75
Maksym Tretyakov
Maksym Tretyakov Midfielder
6.62
9
Denys Ustymenko
Denys Ustymenko Attacker
6.65
Referee : Oleksandr Solovyan

Starting XI ▼

1
Mykyta Minchev
Mykyta Minchev Goalkeeper
6.34
5
Vadim Pidlepych
Vadim Pidlepych Defender
6.01
24
Ilya Ukhan
Ilya Ukhan Defender
5.88
33
Oleg Veremiyenko
Oleg Veremiyenko Defender
6.07
95
Igor Kotsyumaka
Igor Kotsyumaka Defender
6.16
7
Denys Galenkov
Denys Galenkov Midfielder
6.29
2
Mykyta Kononov
Mykyta Kononov
Defender82'
6.16
8
Volodymyr Odaryuk
Volodymyr Odaryuk Midfielder
6.33
19
Mykola Buzhyn
Mykola Buzhyn
Defender74'
6.08
15
Vladyslav Danylenko
Vladyslav Danylenko Midfielder
6.31
44
Dmytro Plakhtyr
Dmytro Plakhtyr
Midfielder74'
6.35
21
A. Doroshenko
A. Doroshenko Midfielder
6.45
10
V. Sad
V. Sad Attacker
6.5
12
Andriy Savenkov
Andriy Savenkov
Defender69'
6.13
38
Danyil Sukhoruchko
Danyil Sukhoruchko Attacker
6.57
14
Maksym Marusych
Maksym Marusych
Attacker82'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Ilya Ukhan
5th Yellowcard
84'
Event
8th Substitution
Event
Taras Lyakh → R. Volokhatyi
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Oleg Slobodyan
Penalty / 2nd Penalty
82'
82'
Event
Mykyta Kononov → Denys Galenkov
5th Substitution
82'
Event
Maksym Marusych → Danyil Sukhoruchko
6th Substitution
74'
Event
Dmytro Plakhtyr → Vladyslav Danylenko
4th Substitution
74'
Event
Mykola Buzhyn → Volodymyr Odaryuk
3rd Substitution
70'
Event
Andriy Savenkov
4th Yellowcard
69'
Event
Vladyslav Danylenko
3rd Yellowcard
69'
Event
Andriy Savenkov → V. Sad
2nd Substitution
68'
Event
6th Yellowcard
Event
Sergiy Sukhanov → Igor Medynskyi
1st Substitution
67'
67'
Event
Oleg Veremiyenko
Second Yellow Card / 1st Yellow/red Card
Event
Maksym Chekh
2nd Yellowcard
60'
54'
Event
V. Sad
Penalty / 1st Penalty
1ST-HALF
16'
Event
Oleg Veremiyenko
1st Yellowcard
Event
Var
14'

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 draw underscores SK Poltava's grit despite a red card, neutralizing Obolon'-Brovar's possession advantage and strength. Significant structural deviation and market misalignment highlight the upset nature, with red card distortion reshaping the contest. Efficiency held steady, but the away side's resolve in the second half secured a point. This result demonstrates how key events can override favoritism, delivering a balanced outcome against expectations.

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