Nottingham Forest vs Burnley Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
The City Ground Sun, 19 Apr - 1:00 PM
Premier League
Nottingham Forest NFO
Versus
Burnley BUR
KICKOFF : Sun, 19 Apr - 1:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Nottingham Forest face Burnley in a Premier League match at The City Ground during the 2025/2026 Regular Season. The home team currently sits in 16th position in the league standings, while the visitors occupy 19th place, signaling a relegation scrap element to this fixture. With a power score of 30.53 against Burnley's 14.35, Nottingham Forest enjoy a clear 16.2 point advantage, underlining their status as the stronger side. Form scores further emphasize this gap, as Forest register 33.33 from six matches compared to Burnley's 11.11. The hosts last played out a draw at home versus Aston Villa, showing resilience, whereas Burnley fell to a home defeat against Brighton & Hove Albion. This game offers Forest the chance to build momentum and distance themselves from danger, while Burnley must find a way to improve their poor away record and pick up much needed points to climb the table. Expect a contest where the home side seeks to impose their quality from the outset.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Nottingham Forest hold commanding 16.2 power advantage over Burnley at 16th vs 19th in the table.
  • Form: Home side in decent shape with W1 D3 L2, away team winless in six with W0 D2 L4.
  • Squad: Forest benefit from stronger squad depth compared to a depleted Burnley roster.
  • Efficiency: Home attack shows better conversion rates while defence limits opposition chances effectively.
  • Transition: Nottingham Forest superior in moving from defence into attack against Burnley's slower pace.
  • Set pieces: Limited data with low confidence suggests both teams have average output from dead balls.
  • xVariable: Underlying numbers reinforce Forest as strong favorites in this Premier League fixture.
  • Market: Nottingham Forest 63.4% (Δ+0%) | Draw 22.8% (Δ+0%) | Burnley 13.9% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Nottingham Forest V. de Oliveira Lopes Pereira
V. de Oliveira Lopes Pereira
VS
Burnley S. Parker
S. Parker
1.17
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.54
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Aston Villa Rank: D
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: W
Fulham Rank: D
Manchester City Rank: D
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: L
Liverpool Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: L
Fulham Rank: L
AFC Bournemouth Rank: D
Everton Rank: L
Brentford Rank: L
Chelsea Rank: D
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 5 - 9
9
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Nottingham Forest
63.36%
Draw
22.75%
Away Burnley
13.89%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
30.53
14.35
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
Power Score
30.53
14.35
League Position
16
19
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Nottingham Forest — Opponent-weighted form score
Burnley — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Nottingham Forest Burnley

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 17 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Nottingham Forest NFO Home
17 matches
Burnley BUR Away
Match Record
3
Wins
9
5
Draws
5
9
Losses
3
Goals
15
Goals Scored
28
28
Goals Conceded
15
-13
Goal Difference
+13
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-16T01:04:51+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
M. Sels
26 M. Sels
T. Olaoluwa Aina
34 T. Olaoluwa Aina
M. Santiago Costa dos Santos
5 M. Santiago Costa dos Santos
N. Milenković
31 N. Milenković
N. Williams
3 N. Williams
I. Sangaré
6 I. Sangaré
E. Anderson
8 E. Anderson
O. Giraud-Hutchinson
21 O. Giraud-Hutchinson
M. Gibbs-White
10 M. Gibbs-White
C. Hudson-Odoi
7 C. Hudson-Odoi
I. da Cruz
19 I. da Cruz
M. Dúbravka
1 M. Dúbravka
Q. Hartman
3 Q. Hartman
M. Esteve
5 M. Esteve
H. Ekdal
18 H. Ekdal
B. Humphreys
12 B. Humphreys
F. Morris Luís
16 F. Morris Luís
J. Ward-Prowse
20 J. Ward-Prowse
J. Anthony
11 J. Anthony
C. Ugochukwu
8 C. Ugochukwu
M. Edwards
10 M. Edwards
Z. Flemming
19 Z. Flemming

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 19, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
The City Ground
Capacity
30445
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Simon Long
Marc Perry
Thomas Kirk
David Webb

Expected Lineup

Referee : Thomas Kirk

Starting XI ▼

26
Matz Sels
Matz Sels Goalkeeper
6.74
19
Igor Jesus
Igor Jesus Centre Forward
6.72
3
Neco Williams
Neco Williams Left Back
6.97
5
Murillo
Murillo Right Back
6.95
6
Ibrahim Sangaré
Ibrahim Sangaré Defensive Midfield
6.85
7
Callum Hudson-Odoi
Callum Hudson-Odoi Left Wing
6.89
8
Elliot Anderson
Elliot Anderson Defensive Midfield
7.24
21
Omari Hutchinson
Omari Hutchinson Right Wing
6.83
34
Ola Aina
Ola Aina Right Back
6.82
10
Morgan Gibbs-White
Morgan Gibbs-White Attacking Midfield
6.94
31
Nikola Milenković
Nikola Milenković Left Back
6.76
Referee : Thomas Kirk

Starting XI ▼

1
Martin Dúbravka
Martin Dúbravka Goalkeeper
6.85
19
Zian Flemming
Zian Flemming Centre Forward
6.84
8
Lesley Ugochukwu
Lesley Ugochukwu Attacking Midfield
6.64
12
Bashir Humphreys
Bashir Humphreys Right Back
6.82
18
Hjalmar Ekdal
Hjalmar Ekdal Right Back
6.7
20
James Ward-Prowse
James Ward-Prowse Defensive Midfield
6.93
3
Quilindschy Hartman
Quilindschy Hartman Left Back
6.72
5
Maxime Estève
Maxime Estève Left Back
6.67
10
Marcus Edwards
Marcus Edwards Right Wing
6.68
11
Jaidon Anthony
Jaidon Anthony Left Wing
6.85
16
Florentino
Florentino Defensive Midfield
6.69

CONCLUSION

Looking ahead, all signs point to a positive result for Nottingham Forest in front of their supportive crowd. Their superior form and structural advantages should allow them to control proceedings and create scoring opportunities. Burnley have shown vulnerabilities, particularly in transitioning between phases and maintaining defensive organization. Although set piece data remains sparse with low confidence levels, Forest appear better equipped across most areas of the pitch. The visitors will likely adopt a defensive stance hoping for a counter attack or mistake from the hosts. However, with the power differential and home advantage in play, Nottingham Forest are well placed to claim the three points and ease their position in the standings. This could be an important win in their campaign to secure safety.

Related Football Previews