Nordsjælland vs AGF Prediction, Preview and Stats

Denmark flag 2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark
Right to Dream Park Thu, 23 Apr - 4:00 PM
Superliga
Nordsjælland FCN
1 – 1
AGF AGF
Full Time Thu, 23 Apr 4:00 PM
Round 6 Championship Round
Levy Nene - 83'
Goal
|
Goal
Patrick Mortensen - 31'

Nordsjælland vs AGF preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

Nordsjælland hosted AGF in a closely contested match that ended in a 1-1 draw. The home side, considered the stronger team, dominated possession with 58% compared to AGF's 42% but found themselves trailing 0-1 at halftime. Nordsjælland mounted a comeback in the second half to equalize, securing a point despite their territorial advantage. No red cards were shown, and there were no notable second-half adjustments reported. The result reflects a moderate structural deviation of 8.1% in favor of Nordsjælland, with efficiency in line with expectations. Market alignment held true, though xG data was unavailable for deeper analysis. This outcome underscores Nordsjælland's resilience despite failing to convert their possession into a win.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match exhibited moderate structural deviation of 8.1% favoring Nordsjælland.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without recorded metrics.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the game's flow.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Kolding
D. Kolding
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.98
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.17
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
J. Stausgaard Kobberrød
J. Stausgaard Kobberrød
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.98
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.17
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
D. Yurdakul
D. Yurdakul
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.98
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.17
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
M. Krogh
M. Krogh
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.98
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.17
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Nordsjælland J. Olsen
J. Olsen
VS
AGF J. Poulsen
J. Poulsen
1.73
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.93
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Viborg FF Rank: W
AGF Rank: D
Brøndby IF Rank: W
Sønderjyske Fodbold Rank: W
FC Midtjylland Rank: W
Viborg FF Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Midtjylland Rank: L
Nordsjælland Rank: D
Viborg FF Rank: W
Brøndby IF Rank: D
Sønderjyske Fodbold Rank: D
Vejle Boldklub Rank: W
27
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
27 - 13 - 17
17

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Nordsjælland
4.07%
Draw
91.85%
Away AGF
4.07%

Movement

Changes since opening
Nordsjælland
-0.4%
Draw
+0.78%
AGF
-0.4%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
39.7
32.61
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Nordsjælland
AGF
Power Score
39.7
32.61
League Position
6
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Nordsjælland — Opponent-weighted form score
AGF — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Nordsjælland AGF

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Nordsjælland

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

AGF

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Nordsjælland ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AGF
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.40
33.93
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.93
39.40
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Nordsjælland +0.51 Efficiency Index
vs
AGF -0.51 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Nordsjælland
AGF
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Nordsjælland ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AGF
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Nordsjælland AGF
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Nordsjælland AGF
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Nordsjælland
AGF
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Nordsjælland
vs
AGF
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Nordsjælland AGF
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Nordsjælland 0.35
AGF 0.27
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Nordsjælland AGF
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Nordsjælland 0.02
AGF 0.02
Nordsjælland
AGF
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FCN had peak pressure around 31'.
  • AGF started the game with stronger pressure.
FCN Pressure AGF Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FCN reached the top pressure at 31' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 57 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Nordsjælland FCN Home
57 matches
AGF AGF Away
Match Record
27
Wins
17
13
Draws
13
17
Losses
27
Goals
95
Goals Scored
72
72
Goals Conceded
95
+23
Goal Difference
-23
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-24T00:01:49+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
A. Hansen
Denmark
13 A. Hansen
N. Hesselund Markmann
Substitution
Denmark
45 N. Hesselund Markmann
T. Salquist
Denmark
3 T. Salquist
C. Yirenkyi
36 C. Yirenkyi
J. Lähteenmäki
Substitution
Finland
25 J. Lähteenmäki
M. Brink Christensen
Substitution
Denmark
6 M. Brink Christensen
J. Meltofte Janssen
18 J. Meltofte Janssen
R. Norheim
Norway
23 R. Norheim
M. Lamine Sadio
Substitution
Senegal
37 M. Lamine Sadio
I. Adel
Substitution
Egypt
14 I. Adel
P. Amoako Junior
10 P. Amoako Junior
J. Hansen
Denmark
1 J. Hansen
E. Kahl
Sweden
19 E. Kahl
H. Dalsgaard
Substitution
Denmark
3 H. Dalsgaard
F. Beijmo
Sweden
2 F. Beijmo
F. Emmery Søgaard
Substitution
39 F. Emmery Søgaard
K. Malt Arnstad
Norway
10 K. Malt Arnstad
M. Knudsen
Norway
4 M. Knudsen
G. Links
South Africa
11 G. Links
T. Kristensen
Substitution
Denmark
31 T. Kristensen
S. Jørgensen
Substitution
Denmark
8 S. Jørgensen
P. Mortensen
Substitution
Denmark
9 P. Mortensen

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 23, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark · Round 6 · Championship Round
Stadium
Right to Dream Park
Capacity
9200
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Danny Kolding
Jacob Stausgaard Kobberrød
Deniz Yurdakul
Morten Krogh

Statistics

Possession
FCN
56%
AGF
44%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 1
4 Shots 3
57 Dangerous attacks 45
58 Possession 42
7 Corners 3
3 Free kicks 18
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

9 Goal Kicks 10
32 Dribble Attempts 14
34 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
15 Throwins 20
1 Assists 1
11 Successful Dribbles 7
5 Substitutions 5
15 Goal Attempts 8
85 Ball Safe 73
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

3 Big Chances Missed 0
97 Attacks 98
0 Counter Attacks 1

Possession

45 Long Passes 46
17 Key Passes 12
27 Successful Long Passes 21
89 Successful Passes Percentage 84
503 Successful Passes 347
564 Passes 413
60 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46

Defensive

4 Saves 9
38 Duels Won 62
15 Tackles 28
5 Interceptions 6

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 11
6 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

18 Fouls 3
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Morten Krogh

Starting XI ▼

13
Andreas Hansen
Andreas Hansen Goalkeeper
7.05
3
Tobias Salquist
Tobias Salquist Defender
6.75
36
Caleb Yirenkyi
Caleb Yirenkyi Defender
7.08
45
Noah Markmann
Noah Markmann Defender
6.73
35
Villads Rutkjaer
Villads Rutkjaer
Defender67'
6.78
6
Mark Brink
Mark Brink Midfielder
6.7
47
Malte Heyde
Malte Heyde
Midfielder89'
6.62
18
Justin Janssen
Justin Janssen Midfielder
6.96
23
Runar Norheim
Runar Norheim Midfielder
6.71
25
Juho Lähteenmäki
Juho Lähteenmäki Midfielder
6.79
32
Victor Gustafsen
Victor Gustafsen
Defender67'
6.46
10
Prince Amoako Junior
Prince Amoako Junior Attacker
6.89
14
Ibrahim Adel
Ibrahim Adel Attacker
6.63
40
Hjalte Boe Rasmussen
Hjalte Boe Rasmussen
Attacker90+1'
6.57
37
Mamadou Sadio
Mamadou Sadio Attacker
7.03
17
Levy Nene
Levy Nene
Attacker67'
6.8
Referee : Morten Krogh

Starting XI ▼

1
Jesper Hansen
Jesper Hansen Goalkeeper
6.85
2
Felix Beijmo
Felix Beijmo Defender
7.23
3
Henrik Dalsgaard
Henrik Dalsgaard Defender
6.83
5
Frederik Tingager
Frederik Tingager
Defender78'
6.95
19
Eric Kahl
Eric Kahl Defender
6.92
4
Magnus Knudsen
Magnus Knudsen Midfielder
6.93
10
Kristian Arnstad
Kristian Arnstad Midfielder
7.29
11
Gift Links
Gift Links Midfielder
7.35
39
Frederik Emmery
Frederik Emmery Midfielder
6.79
26
Jacob Andersen
Jacob Andersen
Defender65'
6.72
8
Sebastian Jørgensen
Sebastian Jørgensen Attacker
6.66
20
Tómas Óli Kristjánsson
Tómas Óli Kristjánsson
Attacker90'
6.72
9
Patrick Mortensen
Patrick Mortensen Attacker
6.73
13
Janni Serra
Janni Serra
Attacker78'
6.7
31
Tobias Bech
Tobias Bech Attacker
7.25
17
Kevin Yakob
Kevin Yakob
Midfielder65'
6.86

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Hjalte Boe Rasmussen → Ibrahim Adel
10th Substitution
90+1'
90'
Event
Tómas Óli Kristjánsson → Sebastian Jørgensen
9th Substitution
Event
Malte Heyde → Mark Brink
8th Substitution
89'
Event
Levy Nene
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
83'
78'
Event
Janni Serra → Patrick Mortensen
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Frederik Tingager → Henrik Dalsgaard
7th Substitution
Event
Justin Janssen
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
71'
Event
Victor Gustafsen → Juho Lähteenmäki
3rd Substitution
67'
Event
Levy Nene → Mamadou Sadio
4th Substitution
67'
Event
Villads Rutkjaer → Noah Markmann
5th Substitution
67'
65'
Event
Kevin Yakob → Tobias Bech
2nd Substitution
65'
Event
Jacob Andersen → Frederik Emmery
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Prince Amoako Junior
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
45'
31'
Event
Patrick Mortensen
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 draw between Nordsjælland and AGF highlights a balanced encounter where the home team's possession edge did not translate into victory. Trailing at halftime, Nordsjælland's second-half response demonstrated tactical adaptability, though they could not secure all three points. With no red cards or major disruptions, the moderate deviation of 8.1% towards the stronger home side points to a fair reflection of play. Market alignment confirms the result was anticipated, while missing xG limits performance insights. This point leaves Nordsjælland with work to do in converting dominance into wins.

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

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