Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Slaven Koprivnica Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Kranjčevićeva Tue, 21 Apr - 2:00 PM
1. HNL
Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb
2 Winner 1
Slaven Koprivnica Slaven Koprivnica
Full Time Tue, 21 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
Mirko Susak - 34'
Blaz Boskovic - 84'
Goal
|
Goal
Ljuban Crepulja - 32' (P)

Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Slaven Koprivnica preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

Lokomotiva Zagreb claimed a 2-1 victory over Slaven Koprivnica in a competitive Croatian league encounter. The match was evenly poised at 1-1 at halftime, with both sides scoring once in the opening period. Lokomotiva, identified as the stronger team, controlled possession at 55% to Slaven's 45%, maintaining pressure throughout. The home side's second-half goal proved decisive, securing the win without any red cards disrupting play. No major tactical adjustments were noted in the second half. Pre-match evaluations placed Lokomotiva's win probability at 47.9%, with the outcome showing a significant 52.1% deviation in their favor, though overall aligned with market expectations. Efficiency metrics stayed in line with projections, highlighting Lokomotiva's clinical edge despite the close scoreline.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lokomotiva Zagreb's 2-1 win featured a significant 52.1% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The result aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were unavailable for evaluation.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in zero distortion from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
V. Đurak
V. Đurak
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.15
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.7
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.38
P. Krmar
P. Krmar
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.15
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.7
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.38
P. Pavlešić
P. Pavlešić
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.15
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.7
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.38
I. Vukančić
I. Vukančić
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.15
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.7
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.38
Lokomotiva Zagreb N. Jelavić
N. Jelavić
VS
Slaven Koprivnica M. Gregurina
M. Gregurina
1.05
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.2
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gorica Rank: W
Istra 1961 Rank: W
Vukovar Rank: D
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: L
Hajduk Split Rank: L
Varaždin Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hajduk Split Rank: D
Varaždin Rank: L
Rijeka Rank: L
Osijek Rank: D
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: L
Gorica Rank: D
25
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
25 - 19 - 16
16

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lokomotiva Zagreb
47.91%
Draw
26.89%
Away Slaven Koprivnica
25.2%

Movement

Changes since opening
Lokomotiva Zagreb
-48.2%
Draw
+23.19%
Slaven Koprivnica
+25.01%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
20.13
17.08
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Slaven Koprivnica
Power Score
20.13
17.08
League Position
5
6
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lokomotiva Zagreb — Opponent-weighted form score
Slaven Koprivnica — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lokomotiva Zagreb Slaven Koprivnica

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lokomotiva Zagreb

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Slaven Koprivnica

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lokomotiva Zagreb ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Slaven Koprivnica
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.45
16.89
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
16.89
34.45
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lokomotiva Zagreb +1.79 Efficiency Index
vs
Slaven Koprivnica -1.79 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Slaven Koprivnica
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lokomotiva Zagreb ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Slaven Koprivnica
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lokomotiva Zagreb Slaven Koprivnica
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lokomotiva Zagreb Slaven Koprivnica
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Slaven Koprivnica
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Lokomotiva Zagreb
vs
Slaven Koprivnica
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Lokomotiva Zagreb Slaven Koprivnica
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.27
Slaven Koprivnica 0.10
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Lokomotiva Zagreb Slaven Koprivnica
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.02
Slaven Koprivnica 0.03
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Slaven Koprivnica
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Lokomotiva Zagreb had peak pressure around 84'.
  • Lokomotiva Zagreb started the game with stronger pressure.
Lokomotiva Zagreb Pressure Slaven Koprivnica Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Lokomotiva Zagreb reached the top pressure at 84' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 60 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb Home
60 matches
Slaven Koprivnica Slaven Koprivnica Away
Match Record
25
Wins
16
19
Draws
19
16
Losses
25
Goals
93
Goals Scored
68
68
Goals Conceded
93
+25
Goal Difference
-25
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-22T00:01:05+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
J. Posavec
Croatia
12 J. Posavec
M. Vešović
Montenegro
23 M. Vešović
T. Jukić
Germany
5 T. Jukić
L. Dajčer
Croatia
16 L. Dajčer
M. Pajač
Croatia
17 M. Pajač
B. Bošković
Bosnia and Herzegovina
6 B. Bošković
M. Subotic
Substitution
Croatia
10 M. Subotic
M. Šušak
Substitution
Croatia
11 M. Šušak
J. Vasilj
Substitution
Croatia
29 J. Vasilj
L. Belcar
Substitution
Croatia
28 L. Belcar
I. Abdallah Sabra
Substitution
Jordan
9 I. Abdallah Sabra
O. Hadzikic
Austria
31 O. Hadzikic
Z. Katalinić
Croatia
5 Z. Katalinić
V. Međimorec
Croatia
2 V. Međimorec
D. Kovačić
Substitution
Croatia
4 D. Kovačić
M. Petrovic
Serbia
20 M. Petrovic
F. Mažar
Croatia
17 F. Mažar
L. Crepulja
Croatia
21 L. Crepulja
F. Krušelj
Croatia
18 F. Krušelj
I. Lepinjica
Substitution
Croatia
23 I. Lepinjica
I. Ćubelić
Croatia
15 I. Ćubelić
M. Dabro
Substitution
Croatia
7 M. Dabro

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 21, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Kranjčevićeva
Capacity
8850
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Vedran Đurak
Patrik Krmar
Patrik Pavlešić
Ivan Vukančić

Statistics

Possession
Lokomotiva Zagreb
55%
Slaven Koprivnica
45%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 1
7 Shots 3
59 Dangerous attacks 52
55 Possession 45
5 Corners 3
9 Free kicks 12
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

9 Successful Dribbles 4
20 Throwins 18
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
17 Dribble Attempts 12
5 Goal Kicks 8
0 Penalties 1
2 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 3

Attacking

106 Attacks 99
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

87 Successful Passes Percentage 82
497 Passes 402
35 Successful Long Passes 31
63 Successful Long Passes Percentage 54
432 Successful Passes 329
56 Long Passes 57

Defensive

40 Duels Won 37
9 Interceptions 5
14 Tackles 11
0 Saves 4

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 14
5 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

13 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Ivan Vukančić

Starting XI ▼

12
Josip Posavec
Josip Posavec Goalkeeper
6.72
5
Tino Jukic
Tino Jukic Defender
6.7
16
Luka Dajcer
Luka Dajcer Defender
6.58
17
Marko Pajac
Marko Pajac Defender
7.08
23
Marko Vesovic
Marko Vesovic Defender
6.89
6
Blaz Boskovic
Blaz Boskovic Midfielder
6.87
10
Matija Subotic
Matija Subotic Midfielder
6.68
14
Marcel Lorber
Marcel Lorber
Midfielder90+2'
6.45
11
Mirko Susak
Mirko Susak Midfielder
6.65
30
Dušan Vuković
Dušan Vuković
Attacker72'
6.65
28
Leon Belcar
Leon Belcar Midfielder
6.73
2
Teodor Kralevski
Teodor Kralevski
Defender90+2'
29
Jakov-Anton Vasilj
Jakov-Anton Vasilj Midfielder
6.7
25
Pavle Smiljanic
Pavle Smiljanic
Midfielder90+2'
9
Ibrahim Sabra
Ibrahim Sabra Attacker
6.75
15
Aleks Stojakovic
Aleks Stojakovic
Attacker57'
6.8
Referee : Ivan Vukančić

Starting XI ▼

31
Osman Hadzikic
Osman Hadzikic Goalkeeper
6.65
2
Vinko Medjimorec
Vinko Medjimorec Defender
6.54
4
Dominik Kovacic
Dominik Kovacic Defender
6.77
29
Marko Aščić
Marko Aščić
Attacker88'
6.87
5
Zvonimir Katalinic
Zvonimir Katalinic Defender
6.39
17
Filip Mažar
Filip Mažar Midfielder
6.77
18
Filip Kruselj
Filip Kruselj Midfielder
6.78
20
Marko Petrovic
Marko Petrovic Midfielder
6.5
21
Ljuban Crepulja
Ljuban Crepulja Midfielder
6.92
7
Marko Dabro
Marko Dabro Attacker
6.54
9
Ivan Bozic
Ivan Bozic
Attacker85'
6.8
15
Ivan Cubelic
Ivan Cubelic Attacker
6.73
23
Igor Lepinjica
Igor Lepinjica Attacker
6.51
24
Leon Bošnjak
Leon Bošnjak
Midfielder46'
6.16

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Marcel Lorber → Matija Subotic
7th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Teodor Kralevski → Leon Belcar
6th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Pavle Smiljanic → Jakov-Anton Vasilj
8th Substitution
90+2'
88'
Event
Marko Aščić → Dominik Kovacic
5th Substitution
85'
Event
Ivan Bozic → Marko Dabro
4th Substitution
Event
Blaz Boskovic
Header / 2nd Goal
84'
Event
Dušan Vuković → Mirko Susak
3rd Substitution
72'
Event
Aleks Stojakovic → Ibrahim Sabra
2nd Substitution
57'
46'
Event
Leon Bošnjak → Igor Lepinjica
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Mirko Susak
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
36'
Event
Mirko Susak
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
34'
32'
Event
Ljuban Crepulja
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty

CONCLUSION

Lokomotiva Zagreb's 2-1 triumph over Slaven Koprivnica validated their status as the stronger side, overcoming a level halftime score through superior possession and a crucial second-half strike. The absence of red cards and tactical shifts kept the focus on fundamental execution, with the home team's 55% possession translating into victory. Market alignment held true despite the notable deviation, underscoring reliable performance under pressure. This result reinforces Lokomotiva's consistency, setting a positive tone for future fixtures in the league.

How We Build This Analysis

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