Legia Warszawa vs Zagłębie Lubin Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego Fri, 17 Apr - 6:30 PM
Ekstraklasa
Legia Warszawa Legia Warszawa
1 Winner 0
Zagłębie Lubin Zagłębie Lubin
Full Time Fri, 17 Apr 6:30 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
Rafal Adamski - 29'
Goal
|

Legia Warszawa vs Zagłębie Lubin preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

Legia Warszawa defeated Zagłębie Lubin 1-0 in a controlled home performance. The only goal came in the first half, with Legia holding a 1-0 lead at halftime and no further scoring. Home possession reached 62 percent against Zagłębie's 38 percent, reflecting Legia's territorial dominance. Despite Zagłębie Lubin being rated the stronger team pre-match, Legia executed efficiently to secure the win. No red cards were shown, maintaining a disciplined contest without disruptions. The outcome showed a significant deviation of 41.2 percent favoring Legia Warszawa, while aligning with pre-match market probabilities where home win stood at 58.8 percent. Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations, though xG data is unavailable for deeper analysis. Legia's second-half resilience prevented any comeback.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Legia Warszawa recorded a significant structural deviation of 41.2 percent.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Result aligned with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or knockout tie affected the outcome.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, causing zero distortion in match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Hasegawa
M. Hasegawa
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.09
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.02
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
K. Ando
K. Ando
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.09
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.02
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
M. Jenda
M. Jenda
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.09
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.02
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
K. Nagamine
K. Nagamine
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.09
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.02
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Legia Warszawa M. Papszun
M. Papszun
VS
Zagłębie Lubin L. Ojrzynski
L. Ojrzynski
1.06
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.72
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Górnik Zabrze Rank: D
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: W
Raków Częstochowa Rank: D
Radomiak Radom Rank: D
Cracovia Kraków Rank: W
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Radomiak Radom Rank: W
Arka Gdynia Rank: L
Motor Lublin Rank: L
Lech Poznań Rank: L
Piast Gliwice Rank: W
Wisła Płock Rank: W
26
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
26 - 5 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Legia Warszawa
58.75%
Draw
25.33%
Away Zagłębie Lubin
15.92%

Movement

Changes since opening
Legia Warszawa
-38.68%
Draw
+22.95%
Zagłębie Lubin
+15.73%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
26.59
27.79
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Legia Warszawa
Zagłębie Lubin
Power Score
26.59
27.79
League Position
10
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Legia Warszawa — Opponent-weighted form score
Zagłębie Lubin — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Legia Warszawa Zagłębie Lubin

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Legia Warszawa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Zagłębie Lubin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Legia Warszawa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zagłębie Lubin
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.89
25.79
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.79
25.89
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Legia Warszawa +0.01 Efficiency Index
vs
Zagłębie Lubin -0.01 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Legia Warszawa
Zagłębie Lubin
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Legia Warszawa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zagłębie Lubin
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Legia Warszawa Zagłębie Lubin
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Legia Warszawa Zagłębie Lubin
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Legia Warszawa
Zagłębie Lubin
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Legia Warszawa
vs
Zagłębie Lubin
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Legia Warszawa Zagłębie Lubin
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Legia Warszawa 0.21
Zagłębie Lubin 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Legia Warszawa Zagłębie Lubin
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Legia Warszawa 0.00
Zagłębie Lubin 0.02
Legia Warszawa
Zagłębie Lubin
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Zagłębie Lubin had peak pressure around 2'.
  • Zagłębie Lubin started the game with stronger pressure.
Legia Warszawa Pressure Zagłębie Lubin Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Zagłębie Lubin reached the top pressure at 2' (66.33).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 40 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Legia Warszawa Legia Warszawa Home
40 matches
Zagłębie Lubin Zagłębie Lubin Away
Match Record
26
Wins
9
5
Draws
5
9
Losses
26
Goals
79
Goals Scored
37
37
Goals Conceded
79
+42
Goal Difference
-42
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-18T00:02:45+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
O. Hindrich
Romania
89 O. Hindrich
K. Piątkowski
Poland
91 K. Piątkowski
R. Augustyniak
Poland
8 R. Augustyniak
R. Pankov
Serbia
12 R. Pankov
P. Wszołek
Poland
7 P. Wszołek
K. Urbanski
Substitution
Poland
82 K. Urbanski
J. Elitim Sepúlveda
Colombia
22 J. Elitim Sepúlveda
D. Szymański
Substitution
Poland
44 D. Szymański
P. Kun
Substitution
Poland
23 P. Kun
M. Rajovic
Denmark
29 M. Rajovic
R. Adamski
Poland
9 R. Adamski
J. Burić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
1 J. Burić
L. Lučić
Croatia
35 L. Lučić
D. Michalski
Poland
4 D. Michalski
M. Nalepa
Poland
25 M. Nalepa
I. Orlikowski
Poland
31 I. Orlikowski
F. Kocaba
Substitution
Poland
39 F. Kocaba
J. Kolan
Substitution
Poland
26 J. Kolan
A. Radwański
Substitution
Poland
18 A. Radwański
M. Reguła
Poland
44 M. Reguła
J. Čorluka
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
16 J. Čorluka
L. Szabo
Substitution
Hungary
17 L. Szabo

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 17, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego
Capacity
31800
Attendance
25042
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Masaru Hasegawa
Kohei Ando
Mateusz Jenda
Koki Nagamine

Statistics

Possession
Legia Warszawa
58%
Zagłębie Lubin
42%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 1
61 Dangerous attacks 36
62 Possession 38
10 Corners 4
17 Free kicks 13
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67
16 Throwins 11
6 Goal Kicks 12
17 Dribble Attempts 12
9 Successful Dribbles 8
3 Substitutions 5
9 Goal Attempts 2
95 Ball Safe 79
3 Injuries 4
1 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Assists 0

Attacking

106 Attacks 81
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

383 Passes 233
70 Long Passes 63
295 Successful Passes 149
30 Successful Long Passes 23
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37
10 Key Passes 6
77 Successful Passes Percentage 64

Defensive

1 Saves 1
10 Tackles 13
5 Interceptions 8
52 Duels Won 63

Build-up

25 Total Crosses 15
6 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

13 Fouls 17
1 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Koki Nagamine

Starting XI ▼

89
Otto Hindrich
Otto Hindrich Goalkeeper
6.71
8
Rafal Augustyniak
Rafal Augustyniak Defender
6.8
12
Radovan Pankov
Radovan Pankov Defender
6.95
91
Kamil Piatkowski
Kamil Piatkowski Defender
6.8
7
Pawel Wszolek
Pawel Wszolek Midfielder
6.83
22
Juergen Elitim
Juergen Elitim Midfielder
7.09
23
Patryk Kun
Patryk Kun Midfielder
6.74
13
Arkadiusz Reca
Arkadiusz Reca
Defender89'
6.78
44
Damian Szymanski
Damian Szymanski Midfielder
6.9
67
Bartosz Kapustka
Bartosz Kapustka
Midfielder90+6'
7
82
Kacper Urbanski
Kacper Urbanski Midfielder
6.62
77
Ermal Krasniqi
Ermal Krasniqi
Attacker80'
6.86
9
Rafal Adamski
Rafal Adamski Attacker
6.86
29
Mileta Rajović
Mileta Rajović Attacker
6.83
Referee : Koki Nagamine

Starting XI ▼

1
Jasmin Buric
Jasmin Buric Goalkeeper
7.05
4
Damian Michalski
Damian Michalski Defender
6.9
25
Michal Nalepa
Michal Nalepa Defender
7.06
31
Igor Orlikowski
Igor Orlikowski Defender
6.67
35
Luka Lucic
Luka Lucic Defender
6.89
16
Josip Corluka
Josip Corluka Midfielder
6.82
13
Mateusz Grzybek
Mateusz Grzybek
Defender62'
7.06
18
Adam Radwanski
Adam Radwanski Midfielder
6.79
19
Jakub Sypek
Jakub Sypek
Midfielder62'
6.61
26
Jakub Kolan
Jakub Kolan Midfielder
6.81
20
Mateusz Dziewiatowski
Mateusz Dziewiatowski
Midfielder74'
6.55
39
Filip Kocaba
Filip Kocaba Midfielder
6.69
8
Damian Dabrowski
Damian Dabrowski
Midfielder62'
7.06
44
Marcel Regula
Marcel Regula Midfielder
6.79
17
Levente Szabó
Levente Szabó Attacker
6.87
9
Michalis Kosidis
Michalis Kosidis
Attacker74'
6.74

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Bartosz Kapustka → Damian Szymanski
8th Substitution
90+6'
90'
Event
Mateusz Dziewiatowski
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Arkadiusz Reca → Patryk Kun
7th Substitution
89'
Event
Damian Szymanski
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
85'
85'
Event
Jasmin Buric
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Ermal Krasniqi → Kacper Urbanski
6th Substitution
80'
74'
Event
Mateusz Dziewiatowski → Jakub Kolan
4th Substitution
74'
Event
Michalis Kosidis → Levente Szabó
5th Substitution
62'
Event
Mateusz Grzybek → Josip Corluka
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Damian Dabrowski → Filip Kocaba
1st Substitution
62'
Event
Jakub Sypek → Adam Radwanski
3rd Substitution
58'
Event
Filip Kocaba
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Rafal Adamski
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
29'

CONCLUSION

Legia Warszawa's narrow 1-0 triumph over Zagłębie Lubin highlighted their possession-based control and early decisiveness. Rated stronger, Zagłębie failed to convert pressure into goals despite 38 percent possession. The significant 41.2 percent deviation underscores Legia's outperformance against structural factors, fully aligning with market favoritism at 58.8 percent home win probability. Absent xG metrics or red cards, the efficiency in line with norms defined the result. Legia's defensive organization in the second half neutralized threats, solidifying a professional victory that enhances their standing without external distortions.

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

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