Lechia Gdańsk vs Raków Częstochowa Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Energa Gdańsk Sat, 25 Apr - 3:30 PM
Ekstraklasa
Lechia Gdańsk LGD
1 Winner 2
Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa
Full Time Sat, 25 Apr 3:30 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
Tomas Bobcek - 10' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Oskar Repka - 20'
Jonatan Braut Brunes - 90+3'

Lechia Gdańsk vs Raków Częstochowa preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

CONTEXT

Lechia Gdańsk, considered the stronger team, hosted Raków Częstochowa in a tightly contested match that ended 1-2 in favor of the visitors. The first half concluded level at 1-1, with both sides sharing possession almost evenly—Lechia at 49% and Raków at 51%. Despite Lechia's pre-match favoritism, Raków capitalized on second-half opportunities to secure the win. No red cards disrupted the flow, allowing the game to unfold naturally without disciplinary distortions. The result exhibited minimal structural deviation of just 4.8%, aligning closely with pre-match market expectations where the outcome proved consistent. Efficiency for both teams stayed in line with anticipated levels, reflecting a balanced performance devoid of major surprises. This upset highlights Raków's resilience on the road against a favored host.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Raków Częstochowa's 1-2 win featured minimal structural deviation of 4.8%.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with expectations throughout the match.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: Final outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: Unable to evaluate xG expectations due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the game's trajectory.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
K. Nagamine
K. Nagamine
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.43
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
M. Hasegawa
M. Hasegawa
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.43
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
K. Ando
K. Ando
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.43
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
F. Kaliszewski
F. Kaliszewski
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.43
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
Lechia Gdańsk J. Carver
J. Carver
VS
Raków Częstochowa ?. Tomczyk
?. Tomczyk
1.65
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.61
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Piast Gliwice Rank: D
Wisła Płock Rank: L
Korona Kielce Rank: W
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: W
Katowice Rank: L
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cracovia Kraków Rank: W
Motor Lublin Rank: D
Widzew Lodz Rank: D
Legia Warszawa Rank: D
Górnik Zabrze Rank: L
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 0 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lechia Gdańsk
0.19%
Draw
4.58%
Away Raków Częstochowa
95.23%

Movement

Changes since opening
Lechia Gdańsk
-0.13%
Draw
-4.11%
Raków Częstochowa
+4.23%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
28.29
24.21
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lechia Gdańsk
Raków Częstochowa
Power Score
28.29
24.21
League Position
9
4
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lechia Gdańsk — Opponent-weighted form score
Raków Częstochowa — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lechia Gdańsk Raków Częstochowa

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lechia Gdańsk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Raków Częstochowa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lechia Gdańsk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Raków Częstochowa
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.84
34.41
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.41
26.84
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lechia Gdańsk -0.69 Efficiency Index
vs
Raków Częstochowa +0.69 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lechia Gdańsk
Raków Częstochowa
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lechia Gdańsk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Raków Częstochowa
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lechia Gdańsk Raków Częstochowa
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lechia Gdańsk Raków Częstochowa
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lechia Gdańsk
Raków Częstochowa
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Lechia Gdańsk
vs
Raków Częstochowa
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Lechia Gdańsk Raków Częstochowa
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Lechia Gdańsk 0.26
Raków Częstochowa 0.52
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Lechia Gdańsk Raków Częstochowa
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Lechia Gdańsk 0.06
Raków Częstochowa 0.02
Lechia Gdańsk
Raków Częstochowa
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LGD had peak pressure around 87'.
  • Raków Częstochowa started the game with stronger pressure.
LGD Pressure Raków Częstochowa Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LGD reached the top pressure at 87' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lechia Gdańsk LGD Home
11 matches
Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa Away
Match Record
2
Wins
9
0
Draws
0
9
Losses
2
Goals
9
Goals Scored
26
26
Goals Conceded
9
-17
Goal Difference
+17
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-26T00:05:59+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
A. Paulsen
New Zealand
18 A. Paulsen
T. Wójtowicz
Substitution
Poland
33 T. Wójtowicz
M. Dyachuk
Ukraine
15 M. Dyachuk
M. Rodin
Croatia
80 M. Rodin
M. Vojtko
Slovakia
27 M. Vojtko
C. Mena Márquez
Colombia
11 C. Mena Márquez
R. Kapič
Bosnia and Herzegovina
10 R. Kapič
I. Zhelizko
Ukraine
5 I. Zhelizko
A. Ćirković
Serbia
8 A. Ćirković
T. Bobček
Slovakia
89 T. Bobček
K. Sezonienko
Poland
79 K. Sezonienko
O. Zych
Poland
48 O. Zych
E. Svarnas
Greece
4 E. Svarnas
B. Racovitan
France
25 B. Racovitan
P. Dawidowicz
Poland
27 P. Dawidowicz
J. Silva Rocha
Substitution
Brazil
20 J. Silva Rocha
M. Bulat
Substitution
Croatia
5 M. Bulat
O. Repka
Poland
6 O. Repka
F. Tudor
Substitution
Croatia
7 F. Tudor
I. Brusberg
Substitution
Sweden
39 I. Brusberg
J. Brunes
Norway
18 J. Brunes
P. Makuch
Substitution
Poland
9 P. Makuch

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 25, 2026, 03:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Energa Gdańsk
Capacity
41984
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Koki Nagamine
Masaru Hasegawa
Kohei Ando
Filip Kaliszewski

Statistics

Possession
LGD
48%
Raków Częstochowa
52%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 1
0 Shots 8
43 Dangerous attacks 31
49 Possession 51
3 Corners 3
12 Free kicks 13
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

1 Substitutions 5
10 Goal Attempts 9
4 Injuries 1
63 Ball Safe 79
0 Assists 1
2 Successful Dribbles 5
11 Goal Kicks 6
11 Throwins 13
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 31
5 Dribble Attempts 16
1 Penalties 0

Attacking

67 Attacks 61
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

77 Successful Passes Percentage 81
276 Successful Passes 317
360 Passes 393
31 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42
16 Successful Long Passes 24
51 Long Passes 57

Defensive

6 Interceptions 4
40 Duels Won 40
2 Saves 5
14 Tackles 9

Build-up

27 Total Crosses 15
7 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

13 Fouls 13
3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Koki Nagamine

Starting XI ▼

18
Alex Paulsen
Alex Paulsen Goalkeeper
6.74
15
Maksym Dyachuk
Maksym Dyachuk Defender
6.74
27
Matus Vojtko
Matus Vojtko Defender
6.7
33
Tomasz Wojtowicz
Tomasz Wojtowicz Defender
6.69
2
Bartlomiej Kludka
Bartlomiej Kludka
Defender86'
6.65
80
Matej Rodin
Matej Rodin Defender
6.94
5
Ivan Zhelizko
Ivan Zhelizko Midfielder
7.27
8
Aleksandar Cirkovic
Aleksandar Cirkovic Midfielder
7.02
10
Rifet Kapic
Rifet Kapic Midfielder
7.05
11
Camilo Mena
Camilo Mena Midfielder
7.06
79
Kacper Sezonienko
Kacper Sezonienko Attacker
6.85
89
Tomas Bobcek
Tomas Bobcek Attacker
7.29
Referee : Koki Nagamine

Starting XI ▼

48
Oliwier Zych
Oliwier Zych Goalkeeper
6.8
4
Stratos Svarnas
Stratos Svarnas Defender
7.07
25
Bogdan Racovițan
Bogdan Racovițan Defender
6.84
27
Paweł Dawidowicz
Paweł Dawidowicz Defender
6.91
5
Marko Bulat
Marko Bulat Midfielder
6.96
22
Abraham Ojo
Abraham Ojo
Midfielder83'
6.58
6
Oskar Repka
Oskar Repka Midfielder
6.84
7
Fran Tudor
Fran Tudor Midfielder
7.05
11
Adriano
Adriano
Midfielder72'
6.75
20
Jean Carlos Silva
Jean Carlos Silva Midfielder
6.92
17
Leonardo Rocha
Leonardo Rocha
Attacker83'
6.81
9
Patryk Makuch
Patryk Makuch Attacker
6.96
10
Ivi López
Ivi López
Midfielder72'
6.96
18
Jonatan Braut Brunes
Jonatan Braut Brunes Attacker
7.1
39
Isak Brusberg
Isak Brusberg Attacker
6.69
8
Tomasz Pienko
Tomasz Pienko
Midfielder46'
6.76

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Jonatan Braut Brunes
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Bartlomiej Kludka → Tomasz Wojtowicz
6th Substitution
86'
83'
Event
Abraham Ojo → Marko Bulat
4th Substitution
83'
Event
Leonardo Rocha → Jean Carlos Silva
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Adriano → Fran Tudor
2nd Substitution
72'
Event
Ivi López → Patryk Makuch
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Stratos Svarnas
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
56'
Event
Fran Tudor
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Camilo Mena
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
53'
46'
Event
Tomasz Pienko → Isak Brusberg
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Kacper Sezonienko
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
44'
20'
Event
Oskar Repka
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Tomas Bobcek
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
10'

CONCLUSION

Raków Częstochowa's narrow 1-2 victory over stronger hosts Lechia Gdańsk underscores their clinical edge in a balanced encounter. Tied 1-1 at halftime with near-even possession, Raków's second-half composure turned the tide without reliance on chaos or ejections. The minimal 4.8% deviation and market alignment affirm a predictable yet gritty result, where efficiency held steady. For Lechia, this home defeat exposes vulnerabilities against resilient opponents, potentially impacting their standing. Raków gains momentum, proving capability beyond expectations in a fair fight.

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Ekstraklasa, Poland View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ