Lechia Gdańsk vs Piast Gliwice Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Energa Gdańsk Mon, 20 Apr - 5:00 PM
Ekstraklasa
Lechia Gdańsk LGD
1 – 1
Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice
Full Time Mon, 20 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
Ivan Zhelizko - 63'
Goal
|
Goal
Patryk Dziczek - 85' (P)
|
Red Card Ema Twumasi 24'

Lechia Gdańsk vs Piast Gliwice preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

Lechia Gdańsk hosted Piast Gliwice in an Ekstraklasa encounter that ended in a hard-fought 1-1 draw, defying pre-match expectations for the home side. As the stronger team with 55% possession, Lechia controlled much of the game but struggled to convert dominance into victory. The first half finished 0-0, with both outfits trading chances in a cagey opening period. Tension escalated after the break when Piast received a red card, handing Lechia a man advantage. Yet, Piast's tenacity shone through; they clawed back from a deficit to secure a point through stout defending and clinical finishing. This outcome marked a significant structural deviation for Lechia, who entered as favorites but settled for parity. Piast's resilience under numerical duress proved decisive, reshaping the contest's flow and underscoring the away side's grit.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lechia Gdańsk recorded a significant 75% structural deviation by drawing as the stronger home team.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match assessments for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment remains undetermined due to unavailable match data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment failed as the draw diverged from pre-match projections.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated owing to absent data.
  • Event impact: Piast Gliwice's red card altered game dynamics in the second half.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion was the primary second-half adjustment factor.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
P. Raczkowski
P. Raczkowski
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.55
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.15
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
J. Winkler
J. Winkler
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.55
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.15
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
F. Sierant
F. Sierant
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.55
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.15
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
D. Sulikowski
D. Sulikowski
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.55
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.15
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Lechia Gdańsk J. Carver
J. Carver
VS
Piast Gliwice D. Myśliwiec
D. Myśliwiec
1.69
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.56
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Wisła Płock Rank: L
Korona Kielce Rank: W
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: W
Katowice Rank: L
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: W
Arka Gdynia Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: L
Nieciecza Rank: L
Radomiak Radom Rank: W
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: W
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: L
Cracovia Kraków Rank: W
16
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
16 - 6 - 11
11

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lechia Gdańsk
46.57%
Draw
24.98%
Away Piast Gliwice
28.44%

Movement

Changes since opening
Lechia Gdańsk
+40.29%
Draw
-66.45%
Piast Gliwice
+26.14%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
28.73
27.57
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lechia Gdańsk
Piast Gliwice
Power Score
28.73
27.57
League Position
9
15
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lechia Gdańsk — Opponent-weighted form score
Piast Gliwice — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lechia Gdańsk Piast Gliwice

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lechia Gdańsk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Piast Gliwice

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lechia Gdańsk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Piast Gliwice
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
41.27
22.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.00
41.27
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lechia Gdańsk +1.77 Efficiency Index
vs
Piast Gliwice -1.77 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lechia Gdańsk
Piast Gliwice
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lechia Gdańsk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Piast Gliwice
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lechia Gdańsk Piast Gliwice
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lechia Gdańsk Piast Gliwice
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lechia Gdańsk
Piast Gliwice
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Lechia Gdańsk
vs
Piast Gliwice
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Lechia Gdańsk Piast Gliwice
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Lechia Gdańsk 0.26
Piast Gliwice 0.21
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Lechia Gdańsk Piast Gliwice
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Lechia Gdańsk 0.03
Piast Gliwice 0.01
Lechia Gdańsk
Piast Gliwice
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LGD had peak pressure around 93'.
  • LGD started the game with stronger pressure.
LGD Pressure Piast Gliwice Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LGD reached the top pressure at 93' (78.36).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 33 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lechia Gdańsk LGD Home
33 matches
Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice Away
Match Record
16
Wins
11
6
Draws
6
11
Losses
16
Goals
45
Goals Scored
40
40
Goals Conceded
45
+5
Goal Difference
-5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-21T00:01:16+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Paulsen
New Zealand
18 A. Paulsen
T. Wójtowicz
Substitution
Poland
33 T. Wójtowicz
B. Pllana
Kosovo
4 B. Pllana
M. Rodin
Croatia
80 M. Rodin
M. Vojtko
Substitution
Slovakia
27 M. Vojtko
T. Neugebauer
Substitution
Poland
99 T. Neugebauer
I. Zhelizko
Ukraine
5 I. Zhelizko
C. Mena Márquez
Colombia
11 C. Mena Márquez
K. Sezonienko
Substitution
Poland
79 K. Sezonienko
A. Ćirković
Serbia
8 A. Ćirković
T. Bobček
Slovakia
89 T. Bobček
D. Holec
Slovakia
30 D. Holec
J. Lewicki
Poland
36 J. Lewicki
I. Drapiński
Poland
29 I. Drapiński
J. Rivas Margalef
Spain
5 J. Rivas Margalef
E. Twumasi
Ghana
55 E. Twumasi
G. Tomasiewicz
Substitution
Poland
20 G. Tomasiewicz
P. Dziczek
Poland
10 P. Dziczek
Leandro Sanca
Substitution
Guinea-Bissau
11 Leandro Sanca
O. Leśniak
Substitution
Poland
31 O. Leśniak
J. Eyenga-Lokilo
Substitution
DR Congo
98 J. Eyenga-Lokilo
J. Muñoz García
Substitution
Spain
7 J. Muñoz García

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 20, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Energa Gdańsk
Capacity
41984
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Paweł Raczkowski
Jacub Winkler
Filip Sierant
Dominik Sulikowski

Statistics

Possession
LGD
55%
Piast Gliwice
45%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 2
6 Shots 2
74 Dangerous attacks 38
55 Possession 45
11 Corners 0
9 Free kicks 12
1 Yellow Cards 3
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

32 Throwins 15
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
20 Dribble Attempts 23
7 Goal Kicks 7
9 Successful Dribbles 10
4 Substitutions 5
73 Ball Safe 84
8 Goal Attempts 4
0 Penalties 1
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

114 Attacks 89
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

79 Successful Passes Percentage 80
13 Key Passes 7
409 Passes 348
61 Long Passes 50
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46
324 Successful Passes 277
27 Successful Long Passes 23

Defensive

20 Tackles 16
6 Interceptions 9
1 Saves 5
54 Duels Won 54

Build-up

31 Total Crosses 9
9 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
13 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Paweł Raczkowski

Starting XI ▼

18
Alex Paulsen
Alex Paulsen Goalkeeper
6.76
4
Bujar Pllana
Bujar Pllana Defender
6.76
27
Matus Vojtko
Matus Vojtko Defender
6.69
23
Milosz Kalahur
Milosz Kalahur
Defender90+5'
6.28
33
Tomasz Wojtowicz
Tomasz Wojtowicz Defender
6.68
2
Bartlomiej Kludka
Bartlomiej Kludka
Defender46'
6.65
80
Matej Rodin
Matej Rodin Defender
6.95
5
Ivan Zhelizko
Ivan Zhelizko Midfielder
7.25
8
Aleksandar Cirkovic
Aleksandar Cirkovic Midfielder
7
11
Camilo Mena
Camilo Mena Midfielder
7.07
79
Kacper Sezonienko
Kacper Sezonienko Midfielder
6.87
17
Anton Tsarenko
Anton Tsarenko
Midfielder46'
6.53
99
Tomasz Neugebauer
Tomasz Neugebauer Midfielder
6.72
7
Bogdan Viunnyk
Bogdan Viunnyk
Attacker62'
6.71
89
Tomas Bobcek
Tomas Bobcek Attacker
7.31
Referee : Paweł Raczkowski

Starting XI ▼

30
Dominik Holec
Dominik Holec Goalkeeper
7.54
5
Juande Rivas
Juande Rivas Defender
7.03
29
Igor Drapinski
Igor Drapinski Defender
6.85
36
Jakub Lewicki
Jakub Lewicki Defender
6.74
55
Ema Twumasi
Ema Twumasi Defender
6.64
10
Patryk Dziczek
Patryk Dziczek Midfielder
7.08
11
Leandro Sanca
Leandro Sanca Midfielder
6.98
23
Szczepan Mucha
Szczepan Mucha
Midfielder76'
6.45
20
Grzegorz Tomasiewicz
Grzegorz Tomasiewicz Midfielder
6.82
80
Hugo Vallejo
Hugo Vallejo
Attacker67'
6.77
31
Oskar Lesniak
Oskar Lesniak Midfielder
6.81
28
Filip Borowski
Filip Borowski
Defender28'
6.44
98
Jason Lokilo
Jason Lokilo Midfielder
6.84
4
Jakub Czerwinski
Jakub Czerwinski
Defender46'
6.69
7
Jorge Félix
Jorge Félix Attacker
6.87
70
Andreas Katsantonis
Andreas Katsantonis
Attacker76'
6.68

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Milosz Kalahur → Matus Vojtko
9th Substitution
90+5'
88'
Event
Jakub Czerwinski
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
85'
Event
Patryk Dziczek
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Matej Rodin
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
83'
82'
Event
Juande Rivas
Penalty awarded
76'
Event
Andreas Katsantonis → Jorge Félix
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Szczepan Mucha → Leandro Sanca
8th Substitution
73'
Event
Patryk Dziczek
Handball / 2nd Yellowcard
67'
Event
Hugo Vallejo → Grzegorz Tomasiewicz
6th Substitution
Event
Ivan Zhelizko
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
63'
Event
Bogdan Viunnyk → Tomasz Neugebauer
5th Substitution
62'
Event
Anton Tsarenko → Kacper Sezonienko
4th Substitution
46'
Event
Bartlomiej Kludka → Tomasz Wojtowicz
3rd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Jakub Czerwinski → Jason Lokilo
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
31'
Event
Igor Drapinski
Time wasting / 1st Yellowcard
28'
Event
Filip Borowski → Oskar Lesniak
1st Substitution
24'
Event
Ema Twumasi
Foul / 1st Redcard
23'
Event
Ema Twumasi
Card adjusted

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 stalemate at Lechia Gdańsk's ground encapsulates Piast Gliwice's fighting spirit amid adversity. Trailing numerically after the red card, Piast regrouped effectively, neutralizing Lechia's possession edge and snatching a vital equalizer. For the home team, this draw stings as a missed opportunity against a depleted foe, highlighting conversion issues despite superiority. Pre-match favoritism toward Lechia amplified the result's surprise factor, with the 75% deviation underscoring unpredictability. Both clubs take a point, but Piast gains momentum from their comeback resilience, while Lechia must sharpen finishing. This clash exemplifies how discipline and resolve can overturn structural advantages in tight fixtures.

How We Build This Analysis

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