Lech Poznań vs Legia Warszawa Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Enea stadion Sun, 26 Apr - 3:30 PM
Ekstraklasa
Lech Poznań Lech Poznań
4 Winner 0
Legia Warszawa Legia Warszawa
Full Time Sun, 26 Apr 3:30 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
Ali Gholizadeh - 3'
Mikael Ishak - 31', 42'
Michal Gurgul - 38'
Goal
|
|
Red Card Rafal Augustyniak 21'

Lech Poznań vs Legia Warszawa preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

Lech Poznań dominated Legia Warszawa in a one-sided Ekstraklasa encounter, triumphing 4-0 with all goals scored in the first half for a 4-0 halftime lead. The home side controlled 67% of possession, showcasing superior structure and execution against their rivals. Legia managed only 33% possession and suffered a red card in the second half, exacerbating their disadvantage. As the pre-designated stronger team, Lech's performance resulted in a significant 52.1% structural deviation from pre-match expectations, underscoring their efficiency. The outcome proved market-aligned, with no xG data available to further assess chance creation. Second-half play was distorted by the red card, limiting Legia's recovery chances. This result reinforces Lech's strong form.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lech Poznań's 4-0 win exhibited a significant 52.1% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be determined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The final result aligned with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations remain unassessable without underlying data.
  • Event impact: Legia Warszawa's red card decisively influenced second-half proceedings.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion marked the key second-half adjustment.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
P. Lasyk
P. Lasyk
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.86
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.41
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
M. Boniek
M. Boniek
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.86
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.41
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
D. Rokosz
D. Rokosz
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.86
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.41
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
M. Piszczelok
M. Piszczelok
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.86
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.41
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Lech Poznań N. Frederiksen
N. Frederiksen
VS
Legia Warszawa M. Papszun
M. Papszun
1.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.22
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: W
Katowice Rank: D
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: D
Nieciecza Rank: W
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: W
Widzew Lodz Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: W
Górnik Zabrze Rank: D
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: W
Raków Częstochowa Rank: D
Radomiak Radom Rank: D
Cracovia Kraków Rank: W
17
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
17 - 11 - 20
20

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lech Poznań
47.93%
Draw
26.12%
Away Legia Warszawa
25.94%

Movement

Changes since opening
Lech Poznań
-49.51%
Draw
+24.21%
Legia Warszawa
+25.29%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
38.84
29.29
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lech Poznań
Legia Warszawa
Power Score
38.84
29.29
League Position
1
14
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lech Poznań — Opponent-weighted form score
Legia Warszawa — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lech Poznań Legia Warszawa

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lech Poznań

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Legia Warszawa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lech Poznań ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Legia Warszawa
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.03
17.42
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.42
39.03
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lech Poznań +1.98 Efficiency Index
vs
Legia Warszawa -1.98 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lech Poznań
Legia Warszawa
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lech Poznań ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Legia Warszawa
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lech Poznań Legia Warszawa
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lech Poznań Legia Warszawa
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lech Poznań
Legia Warszawa
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Lech Poznań
vs
Legia Warszawa
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Lech Poznań Legia Warszawa
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Lech Poznań 0.56
Legia Warszawa 0.33
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Lech Poznań Legia Warszawa
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Lech Poznań 0.00
Legia Warszawa 0.09
Lech Poznań
Legia Warszawa
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Lech Poznań had peak pressure around 44'.
  • Lech Poznań started the game with stronger pressure.
Lech Poznań Pressure Legia Warszawa Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Lech Poznań reached the top pressure at 44' (85.10).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 48 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lech Poznań Lech Poznań Home
48 matches
Legia Warszawa Legia Warszawa Away
Match Record
17
Wins
20
11
Draws
11
20
Losses
17
Goals
47
Goals Scored
52
52
Goals Conceded
47
-5
Goal Difference
+5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:06:52+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 5-3-2
Pitch
B. Mrozek
Poland
41 B. Mrozek
J. Vieira Pereira
Substitution
Portugal
2 J. Vieira Pereira
R. Gumny
Poland
20 R. Gumny
W. Mońka
Poland
27 W. Mońka
M. Gurgul
Poland
15 M. Gurgul
T. Ouma
Substitution
Kenya
6 T. Ouma
A. Kozubal
Substitution
Poland
43 A. Kozubal
A. Gholizadeh
Substitution
Iran
8 A. Gholizadeh
P. Wålemark
Substitution
Sweden
10 P. Wålemark
L. Bengtsson
Sweden
14 L. Bengtsson
M. Ishak
Sweden
9 M. Ishak
O. Hindrich
Romania
89 O. Hindrich
P. Kun
Substitution
Poland
23 P. Kun
R. Pankov
Substitution
Serbia
12 R. Pankov
R. Augustyniak
Poland
8 R. Augustyniak
K. Piątkowski
Poland
91 K. Piątkowski
P. Wszołek
Poland
7 P. Wszołek
D. Szymański
Substitution
Poland
44 D. Szymański
J. Elitim Sepúlveda
Colombia
22 J. Elitim Sepúlveda
K. Urbanski
Substitution
Poland
82 K. Urbanski
R. Adamski
Substitution
Poland
9 R. Adamski
M. Rajovic
Denmark
29 M. Rajovic

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 26, 2026, 03:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium
Enea stadion
Capacity
42837
Attendance
40810
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Piotr Lasyk
Marcin Boniek
Damian Rokosz
Mateusz Piszczelok

Statistics

Possession
Lech Poznań
62%
Legia Warszawa
38%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 0
6 Big Chances Created 1
7 Shots 0
43 Dangerous attacks 15
67 Possession 33
5 Corners 2
14 Free kicks 11
0 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

2 Injuries 0
1 Hit Woodwork 0
5 Substitutions 5
4 Successful Dribbles 5
15 Dribble Attempts 9
53 Ball Safe 67
5 Goal Kicks 13
15 Goal Attempts 4
27 Successful Dribbles Percentage 56
13 Throwins 14
3 Assists 0

Attacking

62 Attacks 50
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

19 Key Passes 4
13 Successful Long Passes 19
89 Successful Passes Percentage 80
45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41
538 Successful Passes 229
29 Long Passes 46
602 Passes 285

Defensive

1 Saves 3
6 Interceptions 17
36 Duels Won 48
11 Tackles 17

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 11
3 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
11 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Piotr Lasyk

Starting XI ▼

41
Bartosz Mrozek
Bartosz Mrozek Goalkeeper
6.91
2
Joel Pereira
Joel Pereira Defender
7.15
90
Hubert Janyszka
Hubert Janyszka
Defender86'
15
Michal Gurgul
Michal Gurgul Defender
6.83
20
Robert Gumny
Robert Gumny Defender
6.63
27
Wojciech Monka
Wojciech Monka Defender
6.94
6
Timothy Ouma
Timothy Ouma Midfielder
6.64
22
Radoslaw Murawski
Radoslaw Murawski
Midfielder78'
6.5
8
Ali Gholizadeh
Ali Gholizadeh Midfielder
7.12
77
Luis Palma
Luis Palma
Midfielder65'
7.26
10
Patrik Wålemark
Patrik Wålemark Midfielder
6.75
11
Daniel Håkans
Daniel Håkans
Midfielder65'
6.46
14
Leo Bengtsson
Leo Bengtsson Midfielder
6.74
43
Antoni Kozubal
Antoni Kozubal Midfielder
6.89
24
Filip Jagiello
Filip Jagiello
Midfielder65'
6.86
9
Mikael Ishak
Mikael Ishak Attacker
2
7.2
Referee : Piotr Lasyk

Starting XI ▼

89
Otto Hindrich
Otto Hindrich Goalkeeper
6.72
7
Pawel Wszolek
Pawel Wszolek Defender
6.83
8
Rafal Augustyniak
Rafal Augustyniak Defender
6.83
12
Radovan Pankov
Radovan Pankov Defender
6.95
13
Arkadiusz Reca
Arkadiusz Reca
Defender72'
6.78
23
Patryk Kun
Patryk Kun Defender
6.72
53
Wojciech Urbanski
Wojciech Urbanski
Midfielder65'
6.56
91
Kamil Piatkowski
Kamil Piatkowski Defender
6.85
22
Juergen Elitim
Juergen Elitim Midfielder
7.12
44
Damian Szymanski
Damian Szymanski Midfielder
6.89
99
Samuel Kovacik
Samuel Kovacik
Attacker65'
6.51
82
Kacper Urbanski
Kacper Urbanski Midfielder
6.64
67
Bartosz Kapustka
Bartosz Kapustka
Midfielder46'
7
9
Rafal Adamski
Rafal Adamski Attacker
6.93
55
Artur Jedrzejczyk
Artur Jedrzejczyk
Defender22'
6.97
29
Mileta Rajović
Mileta Rajović Attacker
6.82

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Hubert Janyszka → Joel Pereira
10th Substitution
86'
Event
Radoslaw Murawski → Timothy Ouma
9th Substitution
78'
72'
Event
Arkadiusz Reca → Radovan Pankov
8th Substitution
Event
Filip Jagiello → Antoni Kozubal
4th Substitution
65'
Event
Luis Palma → Ali Gholizadeh
6th Substitution
65'
Event
Daniel Håkans → Patrik Wålemark
3rd Substitution
65'
65'
Event
Wojciech Urbanski → Patryk Kun
7th Substitution
65'
Event
Samuel Kovacik → Damian Szymanski
5th Substitution
61'
Event
Bartosz Kapustka
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
46'
Event
Bartosz Kapustka → Kacper Urbanski
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Mikael Ishak
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
42'
Event
Michal Gurgul
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
38'
Event
Mikael Ishak
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
31'
22'
Event
Artur Jedrzejczyk → Rafal Adamski
1st Substitution
21'
Event
Rafal Augustyniak
Foul / 1st Redcard
20'
Event
Rafal Augustyniak
Card adjusted
Event
Ali Gholizadeh
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
3'

CONCLUSION

Lech Poznań's 4-0 rout of Legia Warszawa highlighted their structural superiority, with a first-half explosion securing the points early. The 67% possession dominance and Legia's red card ensured no comeback threat emerged. This significant 52.1% deviation affirmed Lech as the stronger side, while market alignment validated pre-match views. Absent xG data limits deeper chance analysis, but efficiency held steady. The red card distortion in the second half cemented Lech's control, preventing any Legia resurgence. Overall, this performance bolsters Lech's title credentials in the league.

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

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