Krasnodar vs FK Nizjni Novgorod Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Stadion FK Krasnodar Sat, 21 Mar - 3:15 PM
Premier League
Krasnodar KRA
5 Winner 0
FK Nizjni Novgorod FK Nizjni Novgorod
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 3:15 PM
Round 22 Regular Season
Jhon Córdoba - 6', 12', 49', 85'
Nikita Krivtsov - 70'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Krasnodar and FK Nizjni Novgorod has finished, with Krasnodar securing a decisive 3-0 victory at full-time. The home side established their dominance early on, taking a comfortable 2-0 advantage into the halftime break before adding a final goal in the second half. Krasnodar controlled the tempo throughout the contest, commanding 65% of the possession compared to a mere 35% for FK Nizjni Novgorod. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for both sides, making it impossible to evaluate if the final outcome was consistent with the underlying xG differential. However, the overall efficiency shift was strictly in line with expectations. The match was also a straightforward tactical affair, as neither side received a red card that might have unexpectedly impacted the run of play. Pre-match indicators accurately identified Krasnodar as the predictably stronger team. Although the specific pre-match market odds registered at zero for a home win, draw, and away win, the data showed a significant deviation level of 100% focused on Krasnodar. Ultimately, this comfortable shutout victory for the home side ensured that the final outcome was fully aligned with the broader pre-match market expectations.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Krasnodar showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Krasnodar M. Musaev
M. Musaev
VS
FK Nizjni Novgorod A. Shpilevskiy
A. Shpilevskiy
2.08
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.17
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sochi Rank: 49 W
Rubin Kazan Rank: 58 L
Rostov Rank: 60 W
CSKA Moskva Rank: 72 W
Krylya Sovetov Rank: 56 W
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: 72 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Krylya Sovetov Rank: 56 W
Sochi Rank: 49 W
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: 72 L
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: 57 W
Akron Rank: 55 W
Zenit Rank: 80 L
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Krasnodar
0%
Draw
0%
Away FK Nizjni Novgorod
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
76.86
52.45
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Krasnodar
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Power Score
76.86
52.45
League Position
1
14
Global Rank
84
696

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Krasnodar — Opponent-weighted form score
FK Nizjni Novgorod — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Krasnodar FK Nizjni Novgorod

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Krasnodar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

FK Nizjni Novgorod

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Krasnodar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FK Nizjni Novgorod
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.54
38.86
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
38.86
27.54
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Krasnodar -1.25 Efficiency Index
vs
FK Nizjni Novgorod +1.25 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Krasnodar
FK Nizjni Novgorod
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Krasnodar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FK Nizjni Novgorod
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Krasnodar FK Nizjni Novgorod
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Krasnodar FK Nizjni Novgorod
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Krasnodar
FK Nizjni Novgorod
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Krasnodar KRA Home
9 matches
FK Nizjni Novgorod FK Nizjni Novgorod Away
Match Record
8
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
8
Goals
22
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
22
+16
Goal Difference
-16
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:22:30+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Pitch
S. Agkatsev
Russia
1 S. Agkatsev
G. González Apud
Uruguay
20 G. González Apud
V. Tormena de Farias
Brazil
3 V. Tormena de Farias
D. Costa Barbosa
Brazil
4 D. Costa Barbosa
L. Olaza Catrofe
Substitution
Uruguay
15 L. Olaza Catrofe
N. Krivtsov
Substitution
Russia
88 N. Krivtsov
D. Soares Gomes
Brazil
66 D. Soares Gomes
J. Fortes Bachiessa
Substitution
Angola
11 J. Fortes Bachiessa
E. Spertsyan
Substitution
Armenia
10 (C) E. Spertsyan
J. Santos Sa
Substitution
Brazil
7 J. Santos Sa
J. Córdoba Copete
Colombia
9 J. Córdoba Copete
N. Medvedev
Russia
30 (C) N. Medvedev
S. Karič
Slovenia
25 S. Karič
I. Kirsh
Substitution
Russia
4 I. Kirsh
N. Kakkoev
Russia
22 N. Kakkoev
M. Shnaptsev
Russia
70 M. Shnaptsev
E. Smelov
Substitution
Russia
17 E. Smelov
A. Opoku Sarfo
Ghana
6 A. Opoku Sarfo
L. Vešner Tičić
Substitution
Slovenia
29 L. Vešner Tičić
A. Balboa Camacho
Substitution
Uruguay
10 A. Balboa Camacho
R. Cephas
Substitution
Jamaica
21 R. Cephas
O. Olusegun
Nigeria
40 O. Olusegun

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 03:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 22 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion FK Krasnodar
Capacity
35074
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Aleksey Sukhoy
Dmitri Mosyakin
Nikolay Voloshin
Denis Bereznov

Statistics

Possession
KRA
61%
FK Nizjni Novgorod
39%

Top Statistics

5 Goals 0
6 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 5
38 Dangerous attacks 32
65 Possession 35
8 Corners 3
16 Free kicks 12
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

4 Assists 0
0 Penalties 1
7 Successful Headers 9
14 Dribble Attempts 19
7 Goal Kicks 7
22 Throwins 16
8 Successful Dribbles 11
57 Successful Dribbles Percentage 58
2 Injuries 5
8 Goal Attempts 6
85 Ball Safe 69
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

95 Attacks 68
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

46 Long Passes 38
480 Passes 256
86 Successful Passes Percentage 77
30 Successful Long Passes 17
65 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45
411 Successful Passes 197

Defensive

21 Tackles 16
5 Interceptions 19
3 Saves 0

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 1
14 Total Crosses 12

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
12 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Aleksey Sukhoy

Starting XI ▼

1
Stanislav Agkatsev
Stanislav Agkatsev Goalkeeper
7.79
3
Vítor Tormena
Vítor Tormena Defender
6.96
4
Diego Costa
Diego Costa Defender
7.21
15
Lucas Olaza
Lucas Olaza Defender
7
27
Efim Burkin Olegovic
Efim Burkin Olegovic
Midfielder87'
20
Giovanni González
Giovanni González Defender
7.12
7
Victor Sá
Victor Sá Midfielder
6.62
23
Juan Manuel Boselli
Juan Manuel Boselli
Attacker25'
6.82
10
Eduard Spertsyan
Eduard Spertsyan (C) Midfielder
8.15
59
Artem Khmarin
Artem Khmarin
Defender87'
11
João Batxi
João Batxi Midfielder
7.25
29
Eldar Guseynov
Eldar Guseynov
Attacker72'
6.59
66
Douglas Augusto
Douglas Augusto Midfielder
6.56
88
Nikita Krivtsov
Nikita Krivtsov Midfielder
8.28
6
Kevin Lenini
Kevin Lenini
Midfielder72'
6.53
9
Jhon Córdoba
Jhon Córdoba Attacker
4
10
Referee : Aleksey Sukhoy

Starting XI ▼

30
Nikita Medvedev
Nikita Medvedev (C) Goalkeeper
5.2
4
Ilya Kirsch
Ilya Kirsch Defender
7.05
24
Edgardo Fariña
Edgardo Fariña
Defender61'
6.06
22
Nikita Kakkoev
Nikita Kakkoev Defender
6.3
25
Sven Karič
Sven Karič Defender
6.25
70
Maksim Shnaptsev
Maksim Shnaptsev Defender
5.57
6
Alex Opoku Sarfo
Alex Opoku Sarfo Midfielder
6.81
10
Adrián Balboa
Adrián Balboa Midfielder
6.58
88
Daniil Lesovoy
Daniil Lesovoy
Attacker61'
5.9
17
E. Smelov
E. Smelov Midfielder
6.57
3
Yuriy Koledin
Yuriy Koledin
Defender79'
6.45
29
Luka Tičić
Luka Tičić Midfielder
6.34
14
Matvey Urvantsev
Matvey Urvantsev
Attacker74'
6.37
21
R. Cephas
R. Cephas Attacker
6.81
69
Artem Sidorenko
Artem Sidorenko
Midfielder74'
6.88
40
Olakunle Olusegun
Olakunle Olusegun Attacker
6.54

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Efim Burkin Olegovic → Lucas Olaza
9th Substitution
87'
Event
Artem Khmarin → Eduard Spertsyan
10th Substitution
87'
Event
Jhon Córdoba
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
85'
84'
Event
Daniil Lesovoy
GoalkeeperSave
Event
Douglas Augusto
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
82'
79'
Event
Yuriy Koledin → E. Smelov
8th Substitution
74'
Event
Matvey Urvantsev → Luka Tičić
7th Substitution
74'
Event
Artem Sidorenko → R. Cephas
6th Substitution
Event
Kevin Lenini → Nikita Krivtsov
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Eldar Guseynov → João Batxi
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Nikita Krivtsov
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
70'
61'
Event
Daniil Lesovoy → Adrián Balboa
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
Edgardo Fariña → Ilya Kirsch
2nd Substitution
Event
Jhon Córdoba
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
49'
1ST-HALF
Event
Juan Manuel Boselli → Victor Sá
1st Substitution
25'
Event
Jhon Córdoba
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
12'
Event
Jhon Córdoba
Header / 1st Goal
6'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Krasnodar exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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