Korona Kielce vs Piast Gliwice Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Exbud Arena Today - 3:30 PM
Ekstraklasa
Korona Kielce Korona Kielce
2 Winner 1
Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice
Full Time Today 3:30 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
Dawid Blanik - 56'
<TBD> - 90+2'
Goal
|
Goal
Juande Rivas - 53'

Korona Kielce vs Piast Gliwice preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

Korona Kielce claimed a gritty 2-1 home win against Piast Gliwice, overcoming a red card to secure victory in a match full of second-half intensity. The halftime score stood at 0-0, with possession tightly contested at 51% for the hosts and 49% for the visitors. Despite Piast Gliwice being the stronger team on paper, Korona Kielce struck twice early in the second half before their defender received a red card. Playing with ten men, they repelled Piast's pressure, conceding only once late on. This result marked a significant structural deviation of 58.5% in Korona's favor, with efficiency holding in line with assessments. Market alignment prevailed, though xG data remained unavailable for deeper insights. The red card introduced clear distortion, yet Kielce's resilience shone through.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Korona Kielce recorded a significant structural deviation of 58.5%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match evaluations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment was undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Final outcome fully aligned with market assessments.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be analyzed without data.
  • Event impact: Second-half goals and red card decisively impacted proceedings.
  • Red card distortion: Home red card distorted second-half balance and flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
P. Gryckiewicz
P. Gryckiewicz
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.22
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.32
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
M. Boniek
M. Boniek
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.22
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.32
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
B. Kaszyński
B. Kaszyński
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.22
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.32
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
M. Mastaj
M. Mastaj
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.22
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.32
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Korona Kielce J. Zielinski
J. Zielinski
VS
Piast Gliwice D. Myśliwiec
D. Myśliwiec
1.13
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.72
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Katowice Rank: 64 D
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 65 L
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 63 D
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: 61 L
Arka Gdynia Rank: 55 W
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: 61 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Arka Gdynia Rank: 56 W
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: 61 D
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: 60 L
Nieciecza Rank: 52 L
Radomiak Radom Rank: 60 W
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 64 W
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 10 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Korona Kielce
41.45%
Draw
28.7%
Away Piast Gliwice
29.85%

Movement

Changes since opening
Korona Kielce
+37.86%
Draw
-63.66%
Piast Gliwice
+25.79%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60.34
61.06
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Korona Kielce
Piast Gliwice
Power Score
60.34
61.06
League Position
12
9
Global Rank
465
442

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Korona Kielce — Opponent-weighted form score
Piast Gliwice — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Korona Kielce Piast Gliwice

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Korona Kielce

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Piast Gliwice

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Korona Kielce ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Piast Gliwice
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Korona Kielce Piast Gliwice
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Korona Kielce Piast Gliwice
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Korona Kielce
Piast Gliwice
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Korona Kielce
vs
Piast Gliwice
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Korona Kielce Piast Gliwice
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Korona Kielce 0.00
Piast Gliwice 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Korona Kielce Piast Gliwice
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Korona Kielce 0.00
Piast Gliwice 0.00
Korona Kielce
Piast Gliwice
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Korona Kielce had peak pressure around 13'.
  • Korona Kielce started the game with stronger pressure.
Korona Kielce Pressure Piast Gliwice Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Korona Kielce reached the top pressure at 13' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 27 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Korona Kielce Korona Kielce Home
27 matches
Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice Away
Match Record
8
Wins
9
10
Draws
10
9
Losses
8
Goals
26
Goals Scored
28
28
Goals Conceded
26
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-01T15:00:38+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
X. Dziekonski
Poland
1 X. Dziekonski
B. Smolarczyk
Poland
24 B. Smolarczyk
P. Resta Tell
Spain
5 P. Resta Tell
M. Pieczek
Poland
6 M. Pieczek
W. Długosz
Poland
71 W. Długosz
S. Gustafson
Sweden
86 S. Gustafson
T. Svetlin
Substitution
Slovenia
88 T. Svetlin
K. Matuszewski
Substitution
Poland
3 K. Matuszewski
M. Remacle
Substitution
Belgium
8 M. Remacle
M. Stępiński
Substitution
Poland
14 M. Stępiński
D. Błanik
Substitution
Poland
7 D. Błanik
D. Holec
Slovakia
30 D. Holec
J. Lewicki
Poland
36 J. Lewicki
I. Drapiński
Poland
29 I. Drapiński
J. Rivas Margalef
Spain
5 J. Rivas Margalef
F. Borowski
Poland
28 F. Borowski
G. Tomasiewicz
Substitution
Poland
20 G. Tomasiewicz
P. Dziczek
Poland
10 P. Dziczek
Leandro Sanca
Substitution
Guinea-Bissau
11 Leandro Sanca
Q. Boisgard
Substitution
France
17 Q. Boisgard
J. Eyenga-Lokilo
Substitution
DR Congo
98 J. Eyenga-Lokilo
J. Muñoz García
Substitution
Spain
7 J. Muñoz García

General Information

Date & Time
May 01, 2026, 03:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Exbud Arena
Capacity
5000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Patryk Gryckiewicz
Marcin Boniek
Bartosz Kaszyński
Mateusz Mastaj

Statistics

Possession
Korona Kielce
50%
Piast Gliwice
50%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 2
12 Shots 13
48 Dangerous attacks 46
51 Possession 49
5 Corners 6
12 Free kicks 15
1 Yellow Cards 0
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

17 Successful Dribbles Percentage 25
12 Dribble Attempts 8
22 Throwins 26
9 Goal Kicks 4
2 Hit Woodwork 2
2 Successful Dribbles 2
5 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 1
71 Ball Safe 68
7 Goal Attempts 9

Attacking

93 Attacks 82
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

17 Successful Long Passes 36
80 Successful Passes Percentage 76
321 Successful Passes 295
31 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
54 Long Passes 76
402 Passes 386

Defensive

12 Tackles 16
6 Interceptions 3
2 Saves 6
54 Duels Won 58

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 16
5 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

15 Fouls 12
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Patryk Gryckiewicz

Starting XI ▼

1
Xavier Dziekonski
Xavier Dziekonski Goalkeeper
6.95
5
Pau Resta
Pau Resta Defender
7.11
6
Marcel Pieczek
Marcel Pieczek Defender
6.87
24
Bartlomiej Smolarczyk
Bartlomiej Smolarczyk Defender
6.76
3
Konrad Matuszewski
Konrad Matuszewski Midfielder
6.96
44
Konstantinos Sotiriou
Konstantinos Sotiriou
Defender84'
6.97
71
Wiktor Dlugosz
Wiktor Dlugosz Midfielder
6.93
86
Simon Gustafson
Simon Gustafson Midfielder
6.58
88
Tamar Svetlin
Tamar Svetlin Midfielder
6.91
9
Stjepan Davidovic
Stjepan Davidovic
Midfielder68'
6.73
7
Dawid Blanik
Dawid Blanik Attacker
7.23
70
Antoñín
Antoñín
Attacker78'
6.69
8
Martin Remacle
Martin Remacle Attacker
6.92
10
Nono
Nono
Midfielder78'
6.61
14
Mariusz Stepinski
Mariusz Stepinski Attacker
6.92
11
Vladimir Nikolov
Vladimir Nikolov
Attacker68'
6.54
Referee : Patryk Gryckiewicz

Starting XI ▼

30
Dominik Holec
Dominik Holec Goalkeeper
7.54
5
Juande Rivas
Juande Rivas Defender
7.03
28
Filip Borowski
Filip Borowski Defender
6.48
29
Igor Drapinski
Igor Drapinski Defender
6.85
36
Jakub Lewicki
Jakub Lewicki Defender
6.76
10
Patryk Dziczek
Patryk Dziczek Midfielder
7.07
11
Leandro Sanca
Leandro Sanca Midfielder
7
80
Hugo Vallejo
Hugo Vallejo
Attacker58'
6.75
17
Quentin Boisgard
Quentin Boisgard Midfielder
6.65
31
Oskar Lesniak
Oskar Lesniak
Midfielder80'
6.8
20
Grzegorz Tomasiewicz
Grzegorz Tomasiewicz Midfielder
6.81
23
Szczepan Mucha
Szczepan Mucha
Midfielder90+1'
6.43
98
Jason Lokilo
Jason Lokilo Midfielder
6.82
70
Andreas Katsantonis
Andreas Katsantonis
Attacker80'
6.65
7
Jorge Félix
Jorge Félix Attacker
6.87
63
German Barkovskiy
German Barkovskiy
Attacker58'
6.84

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
<TBD>
3rd Goal
90+2'
Event
Jacek Zielinski
Argument / 1st Redcard
90+2'
90+1'
Event
Szczepan Mucha → Grzegorz Tomasiewicz
10th Substitution
Event
Konstantinos Sotiriou → Konrad Matuszewski
9th Substitution
84'
80'
Event
Andreas Katsantonis → Jason Lokilo
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Oskar Lesniak → Quentin Boisgard
8th Substitution
Event
Antoñín → Dawid Blanik
5th Substitution
78'
Event
Nono → Martin Remacle
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Simon Gustafson
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
70'
Event
Stjepan Davidovic → Tamar Svetlin
3rd Substitution
68'
Event
Vladimir Nikolov → Mariusz Stepinski
4th Substitution
68'
58'
Event
German Barkovskiy → Jorge Félix
1st Substitution
58'
Event
Hugo Vallejo → Leandro Sanca
2nd Substitution
Event
Dawid Blanik
Header / 2nd Goal
56'
53'
Event
Juande Rivas
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

CONCLUSION

Korona Kielce's 2-1 victory over Piast Gliwice exemplifies defensive resolve and clinical finishing, especially after the red card reduced them to ten players. From a goalless first half, they capitalized swiftly post-break, holding a lead despite even possession. This outcome, showing significant structural deviation for the winners and market alignment, reinforces their tactical adaptability against a stronger opponent. Efficiency remained steady, with red card distortion failing to derail the result. Kielce's performance signals rising momentum, potentially reshaping perceptions in upcoming fixtures.

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

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