Korona Kielce vs Katowice Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Exbud Arena Sat, 25 Apr - 12:45 PM
Ekstraklasa
Korona Kielce Korona Kielce
1 – 1
Katowice Katowice
Full Time Sat, 25 Apr 12:45 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
Marcel Pieczek - 66'
Goal
|
Goal
Arkadiusz Jedrych - 35'

Korona Kielce vs Katowice preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

Korona Kielce and Katowice battled to a 1-1 draw in a competitive Ekstraklasa match. Katowice, identified as the stronger team, seized a 0-1 halftime lead with disciplined defending against Korona's 56% possession dominance. The home side rallied in the second half, equalizing through persistent pressure and creating chances without red cards disrupting play. No major events or adjustments altered the flow, maintaining structural integrity. The outcome marked a significant 74% deviation linked to Katowice, diverging from pre-match expectations of 44.5% home win, 26% draw, and 29.5% away victory probabilities. Efficiency remained in line with norms, though xG data was unavailable for deeper insights. Both teams displayed resilience, splitting points evenly.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match showed a significant 74% structural deviation attributed to Katowice.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment not achieved in the draw result.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be assessed without data.
  • Event impact: No events or second-half adjustments influenced the match.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, causing zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
B. Frankowski
B. Frankowski
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.43
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
J. Winkler
J. Winkler
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.43
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
?. Siercha
?. Siercha
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.43
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
S. Rutkowski
S. Rutkowski
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.43
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
Korona Kielce J. Zielinski
J. Zielinski
VS
Katowice R. Górak
R. Górak
1.06
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.88
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Górnik Zabrze Rank: L
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: D
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: L
Arka Gdynia Rank: W
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: L
Nieciecza Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Motor Lublin Rank: W
Lech Poznań Rank: D
Wisła Płock Rank: W
Cracovia Kraków Rank: L
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: L
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Korona Kielce
44.47%
Draw
26%
Away Katowice
29.53%

Movement

Changes since opening
Korona Kielce
+38.2%
Draw
-62.77%
Katowice
+24.58%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
19.73
31.38
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Korona Kielce
Katowice
Power Score
19.73
31.38
League Position
10
7
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Korona Kielce — Opponent-weighted form score
Katowice — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Korona Kielce Katowice

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Korona Kielce

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Katowice

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Korona Kielce ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Katowice
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.38
40.68
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
40.68
34.38
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Korona Kielce -0.58 Efficiency Index
vs
Katowice +0.58 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Korona Kielce
Katowice
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Korona Kielce ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Katowice
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Korona Kielce Katowice
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Korona Kielce Katowice
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Korona Kielce
Katowice
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Korona Kielce
vs
Katowice
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Korona Kielce Katowice
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Korona Kielce 0.38
Katowice 0.42
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Korona Kielce Katowice
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Korona Kielce 0.03
Katowice 0.02
Korona Kielce
Katowice
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Katowice had peak pressure around 60'.
  • Korona Kielce started the game with stronger pressure.
Korona Kielce Pressure Katowice Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Katowice reached the top pressure at 60' (83.67).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Korona Kielce Korona Kielce Home
3 matches
Katowice Katowice Away
Match Record
2
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
2
Goals
4
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
4
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-26T00:02:27+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
X. Dziekonski
Poland
1 X. Dziekonski
B. Smolarczyk
Poland
24 B. Smolarczyk
P. Resta Tell
Spain
5 P. Resta Tell
M. Pieczek
Poland
6 M. Pieczek
H. Zwoźny
Substitution
Poland
37 H. Zwoźny
S. Gustafson
Substitution
Sweden
86 S. Gustafson
M. Remacle
Belgium
8 M. Remacle
K. Matuszewski
Poland
3 K. Matuszewski
W. Długosz
Poland
71 W. Długosz
D. Błanik
Substitution
Poland
7 D. Błanik
M. Stępiński
Substitution
Poland
14 M. Stępiński
D. Kudła
Poland
1 D. Kudła
M. Berntsen Olsen
Substitution
Norway
14 M. Berntsen Olsen
A. Jędrych
Poland
4 A. Jędrych
A. Czerwiński
Poland
30 A. Czerwiński
M. Wasielewski
Poland
23 M. Wasielewski
S. Milewski
Poland
22 S. Milewski
D. Rasak
Substitution
Poland
26 D. Rasak
E. Jirka
Slovakia
97 E. Jirka
B. Nowak
Poland
27 B. Nowak
E. Marković
Substitution
Norway
15 E. Marković
I. Shkurin
Substitution
Belarus
80 I. Shkurin

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 25, 2026, 12:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium
Exbud Arena
Capacity
5000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Bartosz Frankowski
Jacub Winkler
Łukasz Siercha
Szymon Rutkowski

Statistics

Possession
Korona Kielce
55%
Katowice
45%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 2
10 Shots 6
45 Dangerous attacks 38
56 Possession 44
5 Corners 3
8 Free kicks 9
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

6 Goal Kicks 14
23 Dribble Attempts 11
70 Successful Dribbles Percentage 27
16 Successful Dribbles 3
65 Ball Safe 74
31 Throwins 24
10 Goal Attempts 6
1 Injuries 4
4 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 0

Attacking

105 Attacks 90
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

333 Successful Passes 253
22 Successful Long Passes 20
33 Successful Long Passes Percentage 30
67 Long Passes 66
437 Passes 354
14 Key Passes 12
76 Successful Passes Percentage 71

Defensive

62 Duels Won 47
14 Tackles 10
8 Interceptions 6
4 Saves 3

Build-up

25 Total Crosses 15
12 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

3 Offsides 1
9 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Bartosz Frankowski

Starting XI ▼

1
Xavier Dziekonski
Xavier Dziekonski Goalkeeper
6.94
5
Pau Resta
Pau Resta Defender
7.1
6
Marcel Pieczek
Marcel Pieczek Defender
6.84
24
Bartlomiej Smolarczyk
Bartlomiej Smolarczyk Defender
6.76
3
Konrad Matuszewski
Konrad Matuszewski Midfielder
6.95
8
Martin Remacle
Martin Remacle Midfielder
6.91
37
Hubert Zwozny
Hubert Zwozny Midfielder
6.5
9
Stjepan Davidovic
Stjepan Davidovic
Midfielder58'
6.73
86
Simon Gustafson
Simon Gustafson Midfielder
6.52
10
Nono
Nono
Midfielder87'
6.61
7
Dawid Blanik
Dawid Blanik Attacker
7.22
77
Marcin Cebula
Marcin Cebula
Midfielder87'
6.45
14
Mariusz Stepinski
Mariusz Stepinski Attacker
6.94
11
Vladimir Nikolov
Vladimir Nikolov
Attacker80'
6.54
71
Wiktor Dlugosz
Wiktor Dlugosz Attacker
6.91
Referee : Bartosz Frankowski

Starting XI ▼

1
Dawid Kudla
Dawid Kudla Goalkeeper
6.71
4
Arkadiusz Jedrych
Arkadiusz Jedrych Defender
7.01
14
M. Olsen
M. Olsen Defender
6.25
10
Marcel Wedrychowski
Marcel Wedrychowski
Midfielder77'
6.78
30
Alan Czerwinski
Alan Czerwinski Defender
6.64
22
Sebastian Milewski
Sebastian Milewski Midfielder
6.79
23
Marcin Wasielewski
Marcin Wasielewski Midfielder
6.94
26
Damian Rasak
Damian Rasak Midfielder
6.75
11
Adrian Blad
Adrian Blad
Midfielder77'
6.62
97
Erik Jirka
Erik Jirka Midfielder
6.99
15
Eman Markovic
Eman Markovic Attacker
6.83
70
Mateusz Wdowiak
Mateusz Wdowiak
Midfielder65'
6.62
27
Bartosz Nowak
Bartosz Nowak Attacker
7.47
80
Ilya Shkurin
Ilya Shkurin Attacker
6.53
21
Jakub Kokosiński
Jakub Kokosiński
Attacker77'
6.55

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Marcin Cebula
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
90+3'
90'
Event
Märten Kuusk → Mateusz Wdowiak
9th Substitution
Event
Marcin Cebula → Dawid Blanik
7th Substitution
87'
Event
Nono → Simon Gustafson
8th Substitution
87'
Event
Wiktor Dlugosz
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
86'
Event
Vladimir Nikolov → Mariusz Stepinski
6th Substitution
80'
77'
Event
Adrian Blad → Damian Rasak
3rd Substitution
77'
Event
Jakub Kokosiński → Ilya Shkurin
4th Substitution
77'
Event
Marcel Wedrychowski → M. Olsen
5th Substitution
Event
Marcel Pieczek
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
66'
65'
Event
Mateusz Wdowiak → Eman Markovic
2nd Substitution
Event
Stjepan Davidovic → Hubert Zwozny
1st Substitution
58'
1ST-HALF
35'
Event
Arkadiusz Jedrych
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Katowice exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

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