Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey

Kadir Has Şehir Stadı Thu, 19 Mar - 1:00 PM

Super Lig

Kayserispor KAY

Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük

Full Time Thu, 19 Mar 1:00 PM

German Onugkha - 66'

Matías Kranevitter 37'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Kayserispor 1–0 Fatih Karagümrük. The result saw Kayserispor take the points. Kayserispor showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 61%–39%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Kayserispor showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
Market: Kayserispor 44.3% | Draw 27.5% | Fatih Karagümrük 28.3%.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

No referee statistics available.

J. Storbæk

A. Stanojević

0.77

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

0.67

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

1 - 3 - 5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Kayserispor

44.25%

Draw

27.46%

Fatih Karagümrük

28.29%

Team Power Ranking

63.15

54.31

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Kayserispor

Fatih Karagümrük

Power Score

63.15

54.31

League Position

Global Rank

354

420

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Kayserispor — Opponent-weighted form score

Fatih Karagümrük — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Kayserispor Fatih Karagümrük

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Kayserispor

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Fatih Karagümrük

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Kayserispor ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Fatih Karagümrük

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

30.49

19.62

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

19.62

30.49

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Kayserispor +1.15 Efficiency Index

Fatih Karagümrük -1.15 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Kayserispor

Fatih Karagümrük

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Kayserispor ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Fatih Karagümrük

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Kayserispor Fatih Karagümrük

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Kayserispor Fatih Karagümrük

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Kayserispor

Fatih Karagümrük

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Kayserispor KAY Home

9 matches

Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-12

Goal Difference

+12

Expected Goals

xGA

Data last updated: 2026-03-20T00:05:21+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-3-2

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

25 B. Bayazit

30 J. Brenet

6 S. Güler

4 S. Denswil

28 R. Civelek

15 Y. Aït Bennasser

10 J. Mendes Neto Saraiva

8 L. Bénes

33 F. Soyalp

63 F. Chalov

7 M. Nunes Cardoso

13 I. Grbić

25 F. Mladenović

94 A. Çınar

3 I. Lichnovsky Osorio

47 R. Sousa Esgaio

6 B. Elmaz

5 C. Kranevitter

72 B. Kalayci

8 B. Özcan

70 S. Da Luiz Junior

21 T. Cukur

General Information

Date & Time

Mar 19, 2026, 01:00 PM

Competition

2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey

Stadium

Kadir Has Şehir Stadı

Capacity

32864

Pitch Surface

Grass

Weather

☀️ , Clear

Referees

Halil Umut Meler

Statistics

Possession

KAY

59%

Fatih Karagümrük

41%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0

6 Big Chances Created 0

16 Shots 6

52 Dangerous attacks 33

61 Possession 39

3 Corners 1

8 Free kicks 21

2 Yellow Cards 0

0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

18 Throwins 14

10 Successful Headers 11

8 Dribble Attempts 13

2 Successful Dribbles 8

9 Goal Kicks 16

25 Successful Dribbles Percentage 62

4 Substitutions 5

1 Assists 0

1 Hit Woodwork 0

80 Ball Safe 86

1 Injuries 1

15 Goal Attempts 6

Attacking

117 Attacks 80

5 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

519 Passes 330

459 Successful Passes 237

60 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39

88 Successful Passes Percentage 72

34 Successful Long Passes 26

11 Key Passes 3

57 Long Passes 67

Defensive

11 Tackles 14

12 Interceptions 7

1 Saves 4

Build-up

22 Total Crosses 9

4 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

20 Fouls 9

3 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Halil Umut Meler

Manager ▼

J. Storbæk Coach

Starting XI ▼

Bilal Bayazıt Goalkeeper

Stefano Denswil Defender

Semih Güler Defender

Ramazan Civelek Defender

J. Katongo

Defender75'

Joshua Brenet Defender

László Bénes Midfielder

João Mendes Midfielder

Denis Makarov

Midfielder56'

Youssef Aït Bennasser Midfielder

Görkem Sağlam

Midfielder80'

Furkan Soyalp Midfielder

German Onugkha

Attacker46'

Miguel Cardoso Attacker

Fedor Chalov Attacker

Substitutes ▼

Onurcan Piri Goalkeeper

Burak Kapacak Midfielder

Carlos Mané Midfielder

Sam Mather Attacker

Indrit Tuci Attacker

Talha Sarıarslan Attacker

Referee : Halil Umut Meler