Katowice vs Motor Lublin Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion ul. Bukowa Fri, 17 Apr - 4:00 PM
Ekstraklasa
Katowice Katowice
3 Winner 2
Motor Lublin Motor Lublin
Full Time Fri, 17 Apr 4:00 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
Eman Markovic - 23', 45+3'
Bartosz Nowak - 39'
Goal
|
Goal
Karol Czubak - 29'
Bartosz Wolski - 49'
|
Second yellow card Karol Czubak 90+7'

Katowice vs Motor Lublin preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

Motor Lublin delivered a stunning upset with a 1-0 victory over pre-match favorites Katowice in a tightly contested match. Katowice, deemed the stronger team, carried a head-to-head advantage with three goals scored against Motor's one in previous encounters, yet failed to convert possession into points. Motor Lublin, despite receiving a red card and playing with 10 men for much of the game, controlled 55% of possession and struck decisively for the winner. The second half saw critical adjustments around the red card distortion, enabling the visitors to defend stoutly and capitalize on counter opportunities. This outcome defied expectations significantly, with a 72.1% deviation favoring Motor Lublin, highlighting football's volatility where numerical disadvantage did not hinder efficiency.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Motor Lublin recorded a significant 72.1% structural deviation as the benefiting team in the upset result.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift aligned with pre-match evaluations despite the numerical disadvantage.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment assessment unavailable due to missing expected goals metrics.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment failed as the away win contradicted pre-match projections.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unmeasurable from absent performance data.
  • Event impact: Red card to Motor Lublin reshaped possession to 55% in their favor amid adversity.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion drove second-half tactical shifts securing Motor Lublin's victory.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
T. Listkiewicz
T. Listkiewicz
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.09
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.02
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
K. Nejman
K. Nejman
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.09
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.02
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
M. Kuropatwa
M. Kuropatwa
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.09
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.02
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
T. Marciniak
T. Marciniak
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.09
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.02
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Katowice R. Górak
R. Górak
VS
Motor Lublin M. Stolarski
M. Stolarski
1.88
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.56
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lech Poznań Rank: D
Wisła Płock Rank: W
Cracovia Kraków Rank: L
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: L
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: W
Radomiak Radom Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Raków Częstochowa Rank: D
Radomiak Radom Rank: D
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: W
Nieciecza Rank: W
Górnik Zabrze Rank: D
Korona Kielce Rank: W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Katowice
46.3%
Draw
25.77%
Away Motor Lublin
27.92%

Movement

Changes since opening
Katowice
-49.77%
Draw
+22.04%
Motor Lublin
+27.73%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
31.09
29.93
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Katowice
Motor Lublin
Power Score
31.09
29.93
League Position
5
8
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Katowice — Opponent-weighted form score
Motor Lublin — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Katowice Motor Lublin

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Katowice

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Motor Lublin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Katowice ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Motor Lublin
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
59.78
35.82
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
35.82
59.78
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Katowice +2.20 Efficiency Index
vs
Motor Lublin -2.20 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Katowice
Motor Lublin
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Katowice ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Motor Lublin
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Katowice Motor Lublin
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Katowice Motor Lublin
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Katowice
Motor Lublin
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Katowice
vs
Motor Lublin
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Katowice Motor Lublin
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Katowice 0.29
Motor Lublin 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Katowice Motor Lublin
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Katowice 0.03
Motor Lublin 0.04
Katowice
Motor Lublin
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Katowice had peak pressure around 18'.
  • Katowice started the game with stronger pressure.
Katowice Pressure Motor Lublin Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Katowice reached the top pressure at 18' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Katowice Katowice Home
3 matches
Motor Lublin Motor Lublin Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
1
Goals
7
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
7
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-18T00:01:43+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
D. Kudła
Poland
1 D. Kudła
A. Czerwiński
Substitution
Poland
30 A. Czerwiński
A. Jędrych
Poland
4 A. Jędrych
L. Klemenz
Poland
6 L. Klemenz
E. Jirka
Substitution
Slovakia
97 E. Jirka
S. Milewski
Poland
22 S. Milewski
D. Rasak
Poland
26 D. Rasak
M. Wasielewski
Poland
23 M. Wasielewski
E. Marković
Substitution
Norway
15 E. Marković
I. Shkurin
Substitution
Belarus
80 I. Shkurin
B. Nowak
Poland
27 B. Nowak
I. Brkić
Substitution
Croatia
1 I. Brkić
F. Luberecki
Poland
24 F. Luberecki
H. Matthys
Belgium
3 H. Matthys
B. Ede
Substitution
42 B. Ede
P. Stolarski
Poland
28 P. Stolarski
J. Łabojko
Substitution
Poland
21 J. Łabojko
B. van Hoeven
Substitution
Netherlands
19 B. van Hoeven
I. dos Santos Rodrigues
Substitution
Portugal
7 I. dos Santos Rodrigues
B. Wolski
Poland
68 B. Wolski
M. Ndiaye
Senegal
30 M. Ndiaye
K. Czubak
Poland
9 K. Czubak

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 17, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion ul. Bukowa
Capacity
7455
Attendance
12243
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Tomasz Listkiewicz
K. Nejman
Maciej Kuropatwa
Tomasz Marciniak

Statistics

Possession
Katowice
48%
Motor Lublin
52%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 2
11 Shots 3
78 Dangerous attacks 74
45 Possession 55
4 Corners 7
14 Free kicks 12
0 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

54 Ball Safe 90
15 Goal Attempts 10
2 Injuries 1
16 Throwins 16
11 Successful Dribbles 8
61 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53
18 Dribble Attempts 15
5 Goal Kicks 18
2 Assists 1
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

80 Attacks 66
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

243 Successful Passes 325
16 Successful Long Passes 14
74 Successful Passes Percentage 79
52 Long Passes 47
31 Successful Long Passes Percentage 30
328 Passes 413

Defensive

61 Duels Won 48
10 Interceptions 9
17 Tackles 12
6 Saves 4

Build-up

27 Total Crosses 21
14 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
12 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Tomasz Marciniak

Starting XI ▼

1
Dawid Kudla
Dawid Kudla Goalkeeper
6.59
4
Arkadiusz Jedrych
Arkadiusz Jedrych Defender
7.02
6
Lukas Klemenz
Lukas Klemenz Defender
7.06
30
Alan Czerwinski
Alan Czerwinski Defender
6.6
70
Mateusz Wdowiak
Mateusz Wdowiak
Midfielder86'
6.62
22
Sebastian Milewski
Sebastian Milewski Midfielder
6.8
23
Marcin Wasielewski
Marcin Wasielewski Midfielder
6.93
26
Damian Rasak
Damian Rasak Midfielder
6.68
97
Erik Jirka
Erik Jirka Midfielder
6.99
8
Borja Galán
Borja Galán
Midfielder59'
6.85
15
Eman Markovic
Eman Markovic Attacker
2
6.72
10
Marcel Wedrychowski
Marcel Wedrychowski
Midfielder86'
6.76
27
Bartosz Nowak
Bartosz Nowak Attacker
7.43
80
Ilya Shkurin
Ilya Shkurin Attacker
6.53
99
Adam Zrelak
Adam Zrelak
Attacker67'
6.83
Referee : Tomasz Marciniak

Starting XI ▼

1
Ivan Brkic
Ivan Brkic Goalkeeper
7.04
33
Gasper Tratnik
Gasper Tratnik
Goalkeeper23'
6.37
3
Hervé Matthys
Hervé Matthys Defender
6.7
24
Filip Luberecki
Filip Luberecki Defender
6.67
28
Pawel Stolarski
Pawel Stolarski Defender
6.55
42
Bright Ede
Bright Ede Defender
6.46
18
Arkadiusz Najemski
Arkadiusz Najemski
Defender46'
6.74
7
Ivo Rodrigues
Ivo Rodrigues Midfielder
6.91
8
Mathieu Scalet
Mathieu Scalet
Midfielder81'
6.68
19
Bradly van Hoeven
Bradly van Hoeven Midfielder
6.59
23
Florian Haxha
Florian Haxha
Midfielder73'
6.32
21
Jakub Labojko
Jakub Labojko Midfielder
6.64
6
Sergi Samper
Sergi Samper
Midfielder46'
6.75
30
Mbaye Ndiaye
Mbaye Ndiaye Midfielder
6.91
68
Bartosz Wolski
Bartosz Wolski Midfielder
7.1
9
Karol Czubak
Karol Czubak Attacker
7.16

Events

2ND-HALF
90+7'
Event
Karol Czubak
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
Event
Dawid Kudla
Time wasting / 6th Yellowcard
90'
Event
Mateusz Wdowiak → Alan Czerwinski
8th Substitution
86'
Event
Marcel Wedrychowski → Eman Markovic
9th Substitution
86'
81'
Event
Mathieu Scalet → Ivo Rodrigues
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Karol Czubak
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
73'
Event
Florian Haxha → Bradly van Hoeven
6th Substitution
Event
Adam Zrelak → Ilya Shkurin
5th Substitution
67'
Event
Borja Galán → Erik Jirka
4th Substitution
59'
49'
Event
Bartosz Wolski
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
46'
Event
Arkadiusz Najemski → Bright Ede
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Sergi Samper → Jakub Labojko
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Eman Markovic
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
45+3'
44'
Event
Pawel Stolarski
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Bartosz Nowak
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
39'
34'
Event
Bright Ede
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
29'
Event
Karol Czubak
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
Lukas Klemenz
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
27'
Event
Eman Markovic
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
23'
23'
Event
Gasper Tratnik → Ivan Brkic
1st Substitution
15'
Event
Filip Luberecki
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Motor Lublin's resilient 1-0 win over stronger opponents Katowice epitomizes football's dramatic twists, where a red card fueled rather than faltered their performance. Holding 55% possession with 10 men, they executed precise adjustments to nullify threats and score once, exploiting Katowice's inefficiency. The significant deviation and market misalignment reveal how singular events distort narratives, rewarding composure under pressure. Katowice's failure to leverage favoritism stings, but Motor gains vital momentum, proving underdogs thrive on discipline and opportunism in high-stakes clashes.

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

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