Jagiellonia Białystok vs Górnik Zabrze Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Miejski Fri, 24 Apr - 6:30 PM
Ekstraklasa
Jagiellonia Białystok Jagiellonia Białystok
1 Winner 2
Górnik Zabrze Górnik Zabrze
Full Time Fri, 24 Apr 6:30 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
Afimico Pululu - 90+3'
Goal
|
Goal
Bartosz Mazurek - 64' (Own Goal)
Rafal Janicki - 90+8' (P)

Jagiellonia Białystok vs Górnik Zabrze preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

Jagiellonia Białystok faced Górnik Zabrze at home in a closely contested match that concluded 1-2 in favor of the visitors. The home team held 61% possession throughout, dominating midfield battles but struggling to create clear scoring chances. The first half ended 0-0, with both sides showing defensive solidity and limited attacking penetration. Górnik Zabrze, identified as the stronger team pre-match, capitalized in the second half, scoring twice while conceding once. Jagiellonia's response came too late to alter the outcome. No red cards were issued, maintaining a full complement of players on both sides. This result highlights Górnik's clinical finishing against Jagiellonia's possession-heavy approach, resulting in a significant structural deviation of 96.4%. Efficiency metrics stayed in line with typical patterns, and the absence of key events like ejections preserved the game's natural flow.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Górnik Zabrze recorded a 96.4% structural deviation, deemed significant.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with established norms.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be determined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome did not align with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were unassessable without relevant metrics.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or major events altered the match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards resulted in no distortion to the scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
T. Kwiatkowski
T. Kwiatkowski
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.75
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.28
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Jagiellonia Białystok A. Siemieniec
A. Siemieniec
VS
Górnik Zabrze M. Gašparík
M. Gašparík
1.22
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.35
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Arka Gdynia Rank: W
Korona Kielce Rank: D
Lech Poznań Rank: D
Wisła Płock Rank: L
Katowice Rank: W
Piast Gliwice Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Korona Kielce Rank: W
Legia Warszawa Rank: D
Cracovia Kraków Rank: W
Widzew Lodz Rank: D
Raków Częstochowa Rank: W
Motor Lublin Rank: D
16
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
16 - 7 - 13
13

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Jagiellonia Białystok
4.06%
Draw
92.36%
Away Górnik Zabrze
3.59%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
27.32
29.81
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Jagiellonia Białystok
Górnik Zabrze
Power Score
27.32
29.81
League Position
3
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Jagiellonia Białystok — Opponent-weighted form score
Górnik Zabrze — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Jagiellonia Białystok Górnik Zabrze

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Jagiellonia Białystok

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Górnik Zabrze

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Jagiellonia Białystok ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Górnik Zabrze
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.46
29.10
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.10
32.46
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Jagiellonia Białystok +0.31 Efficiency Index
vs
Górnik Zabrze -0.31 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Jagiellonia Białystok
Górnik Zabrze
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Jagiellonia Białystok ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Górnik Zabrze
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Jagiellonia Białystok Górnik Zabrze
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Jagiellonia Białystok Górnik Zabrze
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Jagiellonia Białystok
Górnik Zabrze
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Jagiellonia Białystok
vs
Górnik Zabrze
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Jagiellonia Białystok Górnik Zabrze
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Jagiellonia Białystok 0.50
Górnik Zabrze 0.37
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Jagiellonia Białystok Górnik Zabrze
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Jagiellonia Białystok 0.07
Górnik Zabrze 0.03
Jagiellonia Białystok
Górnik Zabrze
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Jagiellonia Białystok had peak pressure around 50'.
  • Jagiellonia Białystok started the game with stronger pressure.
Jagiellonia Białystok Pressure Górnik Zabrze Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Jagiellonia Białystok reached the top pressure at 50' (70.86).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 36 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Jagiellonia Białystok Jagiellonia Białystok Home
36 matches
Górnik Zabrze Górnik Zabrze Away
Match Record
16
Wins
13
7
Draws
7
13
Losses
16
Goals
51
Goals Scored
51
51
Goals Conceded
51
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-25T00:01:04+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
S. Abramowicz
Poland
50 S. Abramowicz
N. Wojtuszek
Poland
15 N. Wojtuszek
B. Cardoso Vital
Portugal
13 B. Cardoso Vital
Y. Kobayashi
Substitution
Japan
4 Y. Kobayashi
G. Serrão Montóia
Substitution
Portugal
23 G. Serrão Montóia
T. Romanczuk
Poland
6 T. Romanczuk
B. Mazurek
Substitution
Poland
86 B. Mazurek
K. Szmyt
Poland
77 K. Szmyt
J. Imaz Ballesté
Spain
11 J. Imaz Ballesté
M. Leiva Esquivel
Substitution
Spain
19 M. Leiva Esquivel
A. Pululu
France
10 A. Pululu
M. Łubik
Poland
1 M. Łubik
O. Zmrzlý
Czech Republic
67 O. Zmrzlý
J. Sánchez Guillén
Spain
20 J. Sánchez Guillén
R. Janicki
Poland
26 R. Janicki
M. Sáček
Czech Republic
61 M. Sáček
J. Kubicki
Poland
14 J. Kubicki
P. Hellebrand
Czech Republic
8 P. Hellebrand
M. Khlan
Substitution
Ukraine
33 M. Khlan
L. Sadílek
Substitution
Czech Republic
13 L. Sadílek
R. Massimo
Substitution
Germany
15 R. Massimo
Y. Ikia Dimi
Substitution
France
7 Y. Ikia Dimi

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 24, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Miejski
Capacity
22372
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Tomasz Kwiatkowski

Statistics

Possession
Jagiellonia Białystok
58%
Górnik Zabrze
42%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 2
9 Shots 5
36 Dangerous attacks 27
61 Possession 39
7 Corners 2
14 Free kicks 12
4 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

16 Throwins 13
30 Dribble Attempts 14
13 Successful Dribbles 4
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 29
5 Goal Kicks 5
71 Ball Safe 78
1 Injuries 2
11 Goal Attempts 6
1 Hit Woodwork 0
4 Substitutions 4
0 Penalties 1

Attacking

76 Attacks 76
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

85 Successful Passes Percentage 78
27 Long Passes 51
33 Successful Long Passes Percentage 31
512 Passes 325
9 Key Passes 7
433 Successful Passes 254
9 Successful Long Passes 16

Defensive

4 Interceptions 11
59 Duels Won 49
3 Saves 7
19 Tackles 21

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 7
6 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

13 Fouls 14
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Tomasz Kwiatkowski

Starting XI ▼

50
Slawomir Abramowicz
Slawomir Abramowicz Goalkeeper
6.94
4
Yuki Kobayashi
Yuki Kobayashi Defender
6.65
80
Zachary Zalewski
Zachary Zalewski
Midfielder80'
6.57
13
Bernardo Vital
Bernardo Vital Defender
7.07
15
Norbert Wojtuszek
Norbert Wojtuszek Defender
6.92
23
Guilherme Montóia
Guilherme Montóia Defender
6.91
27
Bartlomiej Wdowik
Bartlomiej Wdowik
Defender80'
7.09
6
Taras Romanczuk
Taras Romanczuk Midfielder
7.04
11
Jesús Imaz
Jesús Imaz Midfielder
7.3
19
Matías Nahuel
Matías Nahuel Midfielder
6.77
14
Samed Bazdar
Samed Bazdar
Attacker62'
6.75
77
Kajetan Szmyt
Kajetan Szmyt Midfielder
6.6
86
Bartosz Mazurek
Bartosz Mazurek Midfielder
6.82
21
Sergio Lozano
Sergio Lozano
Midfielder77'
6.84
10
Afimico Pululu
Afimico Pululu Attacker
7.04
Referee : Tomasz Kwiatkowski

Starting XI ▼

1
Marcel Lubik
Marcel Lubik Goalkeeper
6.61
20
Josema
Josema Defender
6.88
26
Rafal Janicki
Rafal Janicki Defender
7.02
61
Michal Sacek
Michal Sacek Defender
6.73
67
Ondrej Zmrzly
Ondrej Zmrzly Defender
6.59
8
Patrik Hellebrand
Patrik Hellebrand Midfielder
7.34
13
Lukas Sadilek
Lukas Sadilek Midfielder
7.09
4
Pawel Bochniewicz
Pawel Bochniewicz
Defender76'
6.9
14
Jaroslaw Kubicki
Jaroslaw Kubicki Midfielder
7.06
15
Roberto Massimo
Roberto Massimo Midfielder
6.5
16
Pawel Olkowski
Pawel Olkowski
Defender84'
6.85
33
Maksym Khlan
Maksym Khlan Midfielder
6.97
17
Kamil Lukoszek
Kamil Lukoszek
Midfielder84'
6.75
7
Yvan Ikia Dimi
Yvan Ikia Dimi Attacker
6.58
23
Sondre Liseth
Sondre Liseth
Midfielder55'
6.93

Events

2ND-HALF
90+8'
Event
Rafal Janicki
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Bartlomiej Wdowik
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
90+6'
Event
Afimico Pululu
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
90+3'
86'
Event
Josema
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
84'
Event
Pawel Olkowski → Roberto Massimo
8th Substitution
84'
Event
Kamil Lukoszek → Maksym Khlan
7th Substitution
Event
Bartlomiej Wdowik → Guilherme Montóia
5th Substitution
80'
Event
Zachary Zalewski → Yuki Kobayashi
6th Substitution
80'
Event
Sergio Lozano → Bartosz Mazurek
4th Substitution
77'
76'
Event
Pawel Bochniewicz → Lukas Sadilek
3rd Substitution
64'
Event
Bartosz Mazurek
Own Goal / 1st Own Goal
Event
Samed Bazdar → Matías Nahuel
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Kajetan Szmyt
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
57'
55'
Event
Sondre Liseth → Yvan Ikia Dimi
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
44'
Event
Lukas Sadilek
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Afimico Pululu
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
40'
Event
Bartosz Mazurek
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
33'
30'
Event
Yvan Ikia Dimi
Off the ball foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Górnik Zabrze's 1-2 victory over Jagiellonia Białystok underscores their superior efficiency despite lower possession, affirming their status as the stronger side. Jagiellonia's 61% ball control failed to translate into goals, exposing vulnerabilities in final-third execution. The goalless first half set a tactical tone, but Górnik's second-half precision decided the contest. With no red cards or structural disruptions beyond the noted deviation, the result reflects pure performance disparity. This outcome challenges pre-match assumptions, as market signals did not anticipate the visitors' success, providing key insights into team adaptations and finishing prowess for future analyses.

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

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