Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Aldo Drosina Wed, 22 Apr - 6:15 PM
1. HNL
Istra 1961 Istra 1961
0 Winner 2
Dinamo Zagreb GNK
Full Time Wed, 22 Apr 6:15 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
|
Goal
Luka Stojkovic - 23'
Dion Beljo - 45'

Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

Dinamo Zagreb secured a 2-0 victory over Istra 1961 in an away match, with both goals scored in the first half to lead 2-0 at halftime. Istra 1961 held 42% possession compared to Dinamo Zagreb's 58%, reflecting the visitors' control without facing significant disruptions. No red cards were issued, and there were no notable second-half adjustments. As the stronger team, Dinamo Zagreb delivered a performance consistent with pre-match market expectations, which favored them heavily. The outcome showed a significant 26.7% deviation aligned with Dinamo Zagreb's dominance. Efficiency remained in line with expectations, though xG data was unavailable for deeper analysis. The clean sheet and early lead underscored Dinamo Zagreb's tactical discipline.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The match exhibited a significant 26.7% deviation favoring Dinamo Zagreb.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency was in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG data was unavailable, preventing alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: The outcome aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No major events like red cards impacted the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion in performance metrics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Dujo Sarić
Dujo Sarić
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.65
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.9
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.45
V. Vidović
V. Vidović
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.65
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.9
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.45
A. Terzić
A. Terzić
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.65
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.9
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.45
Istra 1961 O. Riera Magem
O. Riera Magem
VS
Dinamo Zagreb M. Kovačević
M. Kovačević
1.2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.4
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vukovar Rank: L
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: L
Hajduk Split Rank: L
Varaždin Rank: W
Rijeka Rank: W
Osijek Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rijeka Rank: D
Vukovar Rank: W
Osijek Rank: W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: W
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: W
Hajduk Split Rank: W
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 10 - 49
49

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Istra 1961
9.89%
Draw
16.81%
Away Dinamo Zagreb
73.3%

Movement

Changes since opening
Istra 1961
+9.69%
Draw
+14.89%
Dinamo Zagreb
-24.59%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
22.49
40.64
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Istra 1961
Dinamo Zagreb
Power Score
22.49
40.64
League Position
7
1
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Istra 1961 — Opponent-weighted form score
Dinamo Zagreb — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Istra 1961 Dinamo Zagreb

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Istra 1961

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Dinamo Zagreb

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Istra 1961 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dinamo Zagreb
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
17.14
40.09
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
40.09
17.14
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Istra 1961 -2.34 Efficiency Index
vs
Dinamo Zagreb +2.34 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Istra 1961
Dinamo Zagreb
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Istra 1961 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dinamo Zagreb
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Istra 1961 Dinamo Zagreb
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Istra 1961 Dinamo Zagreb
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Istra 1961
Dinamo Zagreb
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Istra 1961
vs
Dinamo Zagreb
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Istra 1961 Dinamo Zagreb
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Istra 1961 0.11
Dinamo Zagreb 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Istra 1961 Dinamo Zagreb
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Istra 1961 0.02
Dinamo Zagreb 0.00
Istra 1961
Dinamo Zagreb
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • GNK had peak pressure around 63'.
  • GNK started the game with stronger pressure.
Istra 1961 Pressure GNK Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GNK reached the top pressure at 63' (91.55).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 64 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Istra 1961 Istra 1961 Home
64 matches
Dinamo Zagreb GNK Away
Match Record
5
Wins
49
10
Draws
10
49
Losses
5
Goals
33
Goals Scored
146
146
Goals Conceded
33
-113
Goal Difference
+113
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-23T00:03:14+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
F. Kolić
Croatia
1 F. Kolić
A. Kadušić
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
97 A. Kadušić
M. Nasraoui
Tunisia
3 M. Nasraoui
R. Kumar
Croatia
38 R. Kumar
M. Heister
Germany
26 M. Heister
L. Štulac
Substitution
Slovenia
23 L. Štulac
A. Mauric
Substitution
Croatia
8 A. Mauric
E. Frederiksen
Substitution
Denmark
17 E. Frederiksen
S. Lončar
Bosnia and Herzegovina
10 S. Lončar
V. Rozić
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
7 V. Rozić
S. Prevljak
Bosnia and Herzegovina
9 S. Prevljak
D. Livaković
Croatia
40 D. Livaković
B. Goda
Croatia
3 B. Goda
N. Galesic
Croatia
15 N. Galesic
S. Domínguez Viloria
Spain
36 S. Domínguez Viloria
M. Valincic
Croatia
25 M. Valincic
M. Zajc
Substitution
Slovenia
8 M. Zajc
J. Mišić
Croatia
27 J. Mišić
L. Stojković
Croatia
7 L. Stojković
A. Hoxha
Substitution
Kosovo
11 A. Hoxha
D. Dijon
Croatia
9 D. Dijon
M. Lisica
Substitution
Croatia
21 M. Lisica

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 22, 2026, 06:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Aldo Drosina
Capacity
9800
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Dujo Sarić
Vice Vidović
Ante Terzić

Statistics

Possession
Istra 1961
42%
GNK
58%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
0 Big Chances Created 3
0 Shots 7
44 Dangerous attacks 85
42 Possession 58
2 Corners 4
11 Free kicks 10

Match Overview

0 Assists 2
5 Substitutions 3
21 Throwins 25
10 Goal Kicks 5
14 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
7 Dribble Attempts 15
1 Successful Dribbles 6

Attacking

109 Attacks 134
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

3 Key Passes 18
360 Successful Passes 534
24 Successful Long Passes 32
50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 57
48 Long Passes 56
428 Passes 602
84 Successful Passes Percentage 89

Defensive

5 Saves 0
11 Interceptions 8
38 Duels Won 32
19 Tackles 10

Build-up

9 Total Crosses 17
2 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

3 Offsides 1
10 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Ante Terzić

Starting XI ▼

1
Franko Kolic
Franko Kolic Goalkeeper
6.91
3
Mohamed Nasraoui
Mohamed Nasraoui Defender
6.97
26
Marcel Heister
Marcel Heister Defender
6.71
38
Raul Kumar
Raul Kumar Defender
6.72
97
Advan Kadusic
Advan Kadusic Defender
6.8
24
Filip Taraba
Filip Taraba
Defender80'
6.52
7
Vinko Rozic
Vinko Rozic Midfielder
6.63
11
Silvio Gorican
Silvio Gorican
Attacker71'
6.49
8
Antonio Mauric
Antonio Mauric Midfielder
6.81
20
Dukan Ahmeti
Dukan Ahmeti
Midfielder80'
6.46
10
Stjepan Loncar
Stjepan Loncar Midfielder
6.87
17
Emil Frederiksen
Emil Frederiksen Midfielder
6.96
77
Charles Adah Agada
Charles Adah Agada
Attacker70'
6.58
23
Leo Stulac
Leo Stulac Midfielder
6.78
25
Gustavo Albarracín
Gustavo Albarracín
Midfielder88'
6.23
9
Smail Prevljak
Smail Prevljak Attacker
6.9
Referee : Ante Terzić

Starting XI ▼

40
Dominik Livakovic
Dominik Livakovic Goalkeeper
6.67
3
Bruno Goda
Bruno Goda Defender
6.78
15
Niko Galesic
Niko Galesic Defender
6.81
25
Moris Valincic
Moris Valincic Defender
6.85
36
Sergi Domínguez
Sergi Domínguez Defender
7.08
7
Luka Stojkovic
Luka Stojkovic Midfielder
7.23
8
Miha Zajc
Miha Zajc Midfielder
7.54
14
Marko Soldo
Marko Soldo
Midfielder46'
6.76
27
Josip Misic
Josip Misic Midfielder
7.21
9
Dion Beljo
Dion Beljo Attacker
7.51
11
Arbër Hoxha
Arbër Hoxha Attacker
6.95
30
Fran Topic
Fran Topic
Attacker66'
6.73
21
Mateo Lisica
Mateo Lisica Attacker
7.02
71
Monsef Bakrar
Monsef Bakrar
Attacker80'
6.89

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Gustavo Albarracín → Leo Stulac
8th Substitution
88'
Event
Dukan Ahmeti → Antonio Mauric
5th Substitution
80'
Event
Filip Taraba → Advan Kadusic
7th Substitution
80'
80'
Event
Monsef Bakrar → Mateo Lisica
6th Substitution
Event
Silvio Gorican → Vinko Rozic
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Charles Adah Agada → Emil Frederiksen
3rd Substitution
70'
66'
Event
Fran Topic → Arbër Hoxha
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Marko Soldo → Miha Zajc
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Dion Beljo
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
23'
Event
Luka Stojkovic
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Dinamo Zagreb's 2-0 win over Istra 1961 affirmed their superiority, establishing a 2-0 halftime lead that held firm. With 58% possession and no concessions, they maintained control throughout, avoiding any disciplinary issues. The result matched market alignment and showed significant deviation in their favor, with efficiency steady. Lacking xG data limits overperformance insights, but the structural dominance was clear. This victory reinforces Dinamo Zagreb's position as the stronger side in this encounter.

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