Hajduk Split vs Osijek Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Poljud Tue, 21 Apr - 4:45 PM
1. HNL
Hajduk Split Hajduk Split
0 Winner 1
Osijek Osijek
Full Time Tue, 21 Apr 4:45 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
|
Goal
Vladan Bubanja - 56'

Hajduk Split vs Osijek preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

Hajduk Split faced Osijek at home in a tightly contested match that concluded 0-1 in favor of the visitors. Hajduk dominated possession with 64% to Osijek's 36%, yet struggled to create clear scoring chances. The first half ended goalless at 0-0, maintaining parity as both teams traded cautious possession. In the second half, Osijek struck decisively with their lone goal, exploiting Hajduk's inability to convert dominance into threats. Identified as the stronger team, Hajduk's performance highlighted inefficiencies in front of goal against a compact Osijek defense. No red cards disrupted play, and the game proceeded without major disciplinary incidents. The result reflected minimal structural deviation from pre-match assessments, aligning with market expectations where Osijek's victory fell within anticipated bounds. Hajduk's high possession did not translate to expected output, underscoring Osijek's clinical efficiency on counter opportunities.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Osijek's 0-1 win exhibited minimal structural deviation of 5.8 percent.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency finished in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG metrics unavailable for expectation evaluation.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced no distortion in proceedings.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
I. Pajač
I. Pajač
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.15
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.7
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.38
Hajduk Split G. García García
G. García García
VS
Osijek T. Radotic
T. Radotic
1.9
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.95
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: D
Gorica Rank: W
Istra 1961 Rank: W
Vukovar Rank: W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: W
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Varaždin Rank: L
Rijeka Rank: W
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: L
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: D
Gorica Rank: D
Istra 1961 Rank: W
31
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
31 - 20 - 22
22

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hajduk Split
0.19%
Draw
5.65%
Away Osijek
94.16%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
32.73
20.78
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hajduk Split
Osijek
Power Score
32.73
20.78
League Position
2
9
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hajduk Split — Opponent-weighted form score
Osijek — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hajduk Split Osijek

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hajduk Split

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Osijek

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hajduk Split ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Osijek
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
20.55
30.14
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.14
20.55
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Hajduk Split -0.98 Efficiency Index
vs
Osijek +0.98 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hajduk Split
Osijek
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hajduk Split ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Osijek
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hajduk Split Osijek
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hajduk Split Osijek
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Hajduk Split
Osijek
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Hajduk Split
vs
Osijek
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Hajduk Split Osijek
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Hajduk Split 0.16
Osijek 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Hajduk Split Osijek
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Hajduk Split 0.03
Osijek 0.00
Hajduk Split
Osijek
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Hajduk Split had peak pressure around 83'.
  • Osijek started the game with stronger pressure.
Hajduk Split Pressure Osijek Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Hajduk Split reached the top pressure at 83' (98.69).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 73 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hajduk Split Hajduk Split Home
73 matches
Osijek Osijek Away
Match Record
31
Wins
22
20
Draws
20
22
Losses
31
Goals
102
Goals Scored
74
74
Goals Conceded
102
+28
Goal Difference
-28
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-22T00:01:48+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch
T. Silić
Croatia
33 T. Silić
N. Sigur
Croatia
8 N. Sigur
Z. Šarlija
Croatia
31 Z. Šarlija
D. Maresic
Austria
15 D. Maresic
?. Hrgović
Substitution
Croatia
32 ?. Hrgović
A. Pajaziti
Substitution
Albania
4 A. Pajaziti
N. Skoko
Substitution
Croatia
37 N. Skoko
R. Brajković
Substitution
Croatia
28 R. Brajković
R. Pukstas
United States
21 R. Pukstas
A. Rebić
Substitution
Croatia
9 A. Rebić
M. Šego
Croatia
11 M. Šego
M. Malenica
Croatia
31 M. Malenica
D. Čolina
Croatia
38 D. Čolina
L. Jelenić
Croatia
26 L. Jelenić
E. Hasic
Sweden
33 E. Hasic
D. Bukvić
Substitution
Croatia
39 D. Bukvić
O. Petrusenko
Substitution
Ukraine
16 O. Petrusenko
D. Mejía Moscoso
Substitution
Colombia
6 D. Mejía Moscoso
M. Jovičić
98 M. Jovičić
V. Bubanja
Montenegro
21 V. Bubanja
N. Omerović
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
11 N. Omerović
A. Jakupovic
Substitution
Austria
17 A. Jakupovic

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 21, 2026, 04:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Poljud
Capacity
34198
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Igor Pajač

Statistics

Possession
Hajduk Split
62%
Osijek
38%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 2
5 Shots 4
63 Dangerous attacks 37
64 Possession 36
2 Corners 4
15 Free kicks 7
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

25 Dribble Attempts 19
16 Successful Dribbles 5
64 Successful Dribbles Percentage 26
6 Goal Kicks 11
29 Throwins 15
0 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Penalties 0

Attacking

157 Attacks 83
4 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

505 Successful Passes 253
602 Passes 334
69 Long Passes 58
84 Successful Passes Percentage 76
9 Key Passes 8
39 Successful Long Passes 24
57 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41

Defensive

19 Interceptions 15
21 Tackles 22
67 Duels Won 47
1 Saves 5

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 14
7 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

7 Fouls 16
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Igor Pajač

Starting XI ▼

33
Toni Silic
Toni Silic Goalkeeper
6.84
8
Niko Sigur
Niko Sigur Defender
6.98
15
Dario Maresic
Dario Maresic Defender
6.96
31
Zvonimir Sarlija
Zvonimir Sarlija Defender
6.93
32
Simun Hrgovic
Simun Hrgovic Defender
6.77
17
Dario Melnjak
Dario Melnjak
Defender64'
6.8
4
Adrion Pajaziti
Adrion Pajaziti Midfielder
6.89
6
Hugo Guillamón
Hugo Guillamón
Midfielder78'
6.94
9
Ante Rebić
Ante Rebić Midfielder
7.05
34
Bruno Durdov
Bruno Durdov
Attacker78'
6.63
21
Rokas Pukstas
Rokas Pukstas Midfielder
7.33
28
Roko Brajkovic
Roko Brajkovic Midfielder
6.96
30
Iker Almena
Iker Almena
Attacker64'
6.99
37
Noa Skoko
Noa Skoko Midfielder
6.6
26
Adam Guram
Adam Guram
Midfielder72'
6.74
11
Michele Sego
Michele Sego Attacker
7.02
Referee : Igor Pajač

Starting XI ▼

31
Marko Malenica
Marko Malenica Goalkeeper
6.91
26
Luka Jelenic
Luka Jelenic Defender
6.79
33
Emin Hasic
Emin Hasic Defender
6.62
38
David Colina
David Colina Defender
6.7
6
David Mejía
David Mejía Midfielder
6.7
23
Luka Vrbancic
Luka Vrbancic
Midfielder82'
6.73
16
Oleksandr Petrusenko
Oleksandr Petrusenko Midfielder
6.69
5
Jon Mersinaj
Jon Mersinaj
Defender90+2'
6.62
39
Domagoj Bukvic
Domagoj Bukvic Midfielder
6.64
8
Simun Mikolcic
Simun Mikolcic
Midfielder82'
6.74
98
Miloš Jovičić
Miloš Jovičić Midfielder
6.42
11
Nail Omerovic
Nail Omerovic Attacker
6.93
57
Samuel Akere
Samuel Akere
Midfielder71'
6.83
17
Arnel Jakupovic
Arnel Jakupovic Attacker
6.85
46
Ivan Barić
Ivan Barić
Attacker71'
6.47
21
Vladan Bubanja
Vladan Bubanja Attacker
6.77

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Jon Mersinaj → Oleksandr Petrusenko
10th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Luka Vrbancic
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
87'
Event
David Colina
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Michele Sego
Woodwork
83'
82'
Event
Luka Vrbancic → David Mejía
9th Substitution
82'
Event
Simun Mikolcic → Domagoj Bukvic
8th Substitution
Event
Bruno Durdov → Ante Rebić
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Hugo Guillamón → Adrion Pajaziti
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Adam Guram → Noa Skoko
5th Substitution
72'
71'
Event
Samuel Akere → Nail Omerovic
3rd Substitution
71'
Event
Ivan Barić → Arnel Jakupovic
4th Substitution
Event
Dario Melnjak → Simun Hrgovic
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Iker Almena → Roko Brajkovic
1st Substitution
64'
56'
Event
Vladan Bubanja
Header / 1st Goal
1ST-HALF
Event
Michele Sego
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
16'

CONCLUSION

Osijek's 0-1 triumph over possession-heavy Hajduk Split (64%) exposed the home side's conversion issues despite their status as the stronger team. The goalless first half set a cagey tone, resolved by Osijek's second-half precision. Minimal deviation and market alignment indicate the result stayed within expected parameters, with no red cards or adjustments skewing the flow. Hajduk's dominance failed to yield goals, allowing Osijek's efficiency to prevail in a disciplined affair.

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