Gorica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
ŠRC Velika Gorica Fri, 17 Apr - 1:30 PM
1. HNL
Gorica Gorica
0 Winner 2
Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb
Full Time Fri, 17 Apr 1:30 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
|
Goal
Mirko Susak - 36'
Jakov-Anton Vasilj - 68'

Gorica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

In a stunning upset in the Croatian HNL, pre-match favorites Gorica suffered a 0-2 home defeat to Lokomotiva Zagreb. Despite holding 53% possession and entering as the stronger team, Gorica created few clear chances and failed to test the away keeper meaningfully. Lokomotiva, efficient on the counter, struck first just before halftime to lead 1-0, then added a second in the latter stages to secure a deserved victory. The match flowed without red cards or major interruptions, allowing Lokomotiva's disciplined shape to shine. This result triggered a significant 69.7% deviation from structural expectations, as the visitors capitalized on Gorica's wastefulness. Possession dominance did not translate to points, highlighting clinical finishing's premium in tight contests.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lokomotiva Zagreb's win marked a 69.7% significant deviation favoring the away side.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: xG data absence prevented outcome consistency evaluation.
  • Market alignment: Actual result diverged from pre-match market projections.
  • xG expectations: Missing xG metrics blocked expectation fulfillment analysis.
  • Event impact: Empty second-half adjustments list showed no pivotal events.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no disciplinary influence on proceedings.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
L. Pajić
L. Pajić
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.03
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.66
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Antonio Melnjak
Antonio Melnjak
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.03
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.66
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
K. Šarić
K. Šarić
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.03
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.66
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Filip Cindrić
Filip Cindrić
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.03
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.66
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Gorica M. Carević
M. Carević
VS
Lokomotiva Zagreb N. Jelavić
N. Jelavić
1.05
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.95
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hajduk Split Rank: L
Varaždin Rank: D
Rijeka Rank: W
Osijek Rank: D
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: D
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Istra 1961 Rank: W
Vukovar Rank: D
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: L
Hajduk Split Rank: L
Varaždin Rank: D
Rijeka Rank: L
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 10 - 11
11

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Gorica
41.71%
Draw
27.97%
Away Lokomotiva Zagreb
30.32%

Movement

Changes since opening
Gorica
+41.49%
Draw
+26.05%
Lokomotiva Zagreb
-67.54%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
19.11
17.04
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Gorica
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Power Score
19.11
17.04
League Position
8
6
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Gorica — Opponent-weighted form score
Lokomotiva Zagreb — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Gorica Lokomotiva Zagreb

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Gorica

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lokomotiva Zagreb

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Gorica ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lokomotiva Zagreb
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.72
22.02
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.02
24.72
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Gorica +0.27 Efficiency Index
vs
Lokomotiva Zagreb -0.27 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Gorica
Lokomotiva Zagreb
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Gorica ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lokomotiva Zagreb
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Gorica Lokomotiva Zagreb
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Gorica Lokomotiva Zagreb
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Gorica
Lokomotiva Zagreb
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Gorica
vs
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Gorica Lokomotiva Zagreb
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Gorica 0.16
Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.17
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Gorica Lokomotiva Zagreb
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Gorica 0.04
Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.00
Gorica
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Lokomotiva Zagreb had peak pressure around 22'.
  • Gorica started the game with stronger pressure.
Gorica Pressure Lokomotiva Zagreb Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Lokomotiva Zagreb reached the top pressure at 22' (85.80).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Gorica Gorica Home
31 matches
Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb Away
Match Record
10
Wins
11
10
Draws
10
11
Losses
10
Goals
43
Goals Scored
53
53
Goals Conceded
43
-10
Goal Difference
+10
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-18T00:01:00+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Matijaš
Croatia
71 D. Matijaš
S. Peric
Austria
45 S. Peric
J. Filipović
Croatia
4 J. Filipović
M. Čabraja
Croatia
19 M. Čabraja
Ž. Trontelj
Slovenia
22 Ž. Trontelj
A. Kavelj
Substitution
Croatia
36 A. Kavelj
O. Bakić
Substitution
Montenegro
7 O. Bakić
B. Bogojević
Substitution
Croatia
25 B. Bogojević
J. Pršir
Croatia
10 J. Pršir
T. Epailly
Substitution
France
64 T. Epailly
S. Wisdom Aondowase
Substitution
11 S. Wisdom Aondowase
J. Posavec
Croatia
12 J. Posavec
M. Pajač
Croatia
17 M. Pajač
L. Dajčer
Croatia
16 L. Dajčer
D. Kolinger
Croatia
20 D. Kolinger
M. Vešović
Montenegro
23 M. Vešović
M. Subotic
Substitution
Croatia
10 M. Subotic
B. Bošković
Bosnia and Herzegovina
6 B. Bošković
L. Belcar
Croatia
28 L. Belcar
J. Vasilj
Substitution
Croatia
29 J. Vasilj
M. Šušak
Substitution
Croatia
11 M. Šušak
A. Stojaković
Substitution
Slovenia
15 A. Stojaković

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 17, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium
ŠRC Velika Gorica
Capacity
8000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Luka Pajić
Antonio Melnjak
Kruno Šarić
Filip Cindrić

Statistics

Possession
Gorica
53%
Lokomotiva Zagreb
47%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
0 Big Chances Created 3
5 Shots 1
62 Dangerous attacks 47
53 Possession 47
6 Corners 1
12 Free kicks 14
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

14 Dribble Attempts 11
7 Successful Dribbles 7
18 Throwins 19
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 64
8 Goal Kicks 12
0 Assists 2
5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

66 Attacks 76
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

458 Passes 412
54 Long Passes 40
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43
393 Successful Passes 340
24 Successful Long Passes 17
86 Successful Passes Percentage 83

Defensive

13 Tackles 12
44 Duels Won 45
10 Interceptions 7
2 Saves 1

Build-up

29 Total Crosses 12
7 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

14 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Antonio Melnjak

Starting XI ▼

71
Davor Matijas
Davor Matijas Goalkeeper
6.76
4
Jakov Filipovic
Jakov Filipovic Defender
6.82
19
Marijan Cabraja
Marijan Cabraja Defender
7.04
45
Stefan Peric
Stefan Peric Defender
6.65
7
Ognjen Bakic
Ognjen Bakic Midfielder
6.63
14
Stjepan Kucis
Stjepan Kucis
Midfielder64'
6.62
22
Zan Trontelj
Zan Trontelj Midfielder
6.92
25
Bruno Bogojevic
Bruno Bogojevic Midfielder
6.68
99
Medin Gashi
Medin Gashi
Attacker84'
6.58
36
Ante Kavelj
Ante Kavelj Midfielder
6.84
20
Luka Vrzic
Luka Vrzic
Attacker78'
6.68
10
Jurica Prsir
Jurica Prsir Attacker
6.92
11
Sule Wisdom Aondowase
Sule Wisdom Aondowase Attacker
6.57
50
Ante Erceg
Ante Erceg
Attacker46'
6.84
64
Théo Epailly
Théo Epailly Attacker
6.6
18
Ivan Fiolic
Ivan Fiolic
Midfielder64'
6.53
Referee : Antonio Melnjak

Starting XI ▼

12
Josip Posavec
Josip Posavec Goalkeeper
6.72
16
Luka Dajcer
Luka Dajcer Defender
6.58
17
Marko Pajac
Marko Pajac Defender
7.08
20
Denis Kolinger
Denis Kolinger Defender
6.73
23
Marko Vesovic
Marko Vesovic Defender
6.89
6
Blaz Boskovic
Blaz Boskovic Midfielder
6.87
10
Matija Subotic
Matija Subotic Midfielder
6.68
25
Teodor Kralevski
Teodor Kralevski
Defender89'
11
Mirko Susak
Mirko Susak Midfielder
6.65
9
Ibrahim Sabra
Ibrahim Sabra
Attacker68'
6.75
28
Leon Belcar
Leon Belcar Midfielder
6.73
29
Jakov-Anton Vasilj
Jakov-Anton Vasilj Midfielder
6.7
14
Marcel Lorber
Marcel Lorber
Midfielder89'
6.45
15
Aleks Stojakovic
Aleks Stojakovic Attacker
6.8
30
Dušan Vuković
Dušan Vuković
Attacker78'
6.65

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Marcel Lorber → Jakov-Anton Vasilj
9th Substitution
89'
Event
Teodor Kralevski → Matija Subotic
8th Substitution
Event
Medin Gashi → Bruno Bogojevic
7th Substitution
84'
81'
Event
Denis Kolinger
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Luka Vrzic → Ante Kavelj
5th Substitution
78'
78'
Event
Dušan Vuković → Aleks Stojakovic
6th Substitution
68'
Event
Ibrahim Sabra → Mirko Susak
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Jakov-Anton Vasilj
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Stjepan Kucis → Ognjen Bakic
3rd Substitution
64'
Event
Ivan Fiolic → Théo Epailly
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Jurica Prsir
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
52'
Event
Ante Erceg → Sule Wisdom Aondowase
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
36'
Event
Mirko Susak
Header / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Lokomotiva Zagreb's commanding 2-0 triumph over Gorica exemplifies football's capricious nature, where underperceived teams can dominate through precision. Gorica's 53% possession yielded nothing, exposing vulnerabilities in chance creation and conversion. Lokomotiva's timely goals, one per half, dismantled home resistance without needing extra firepower. This significant deviation reshapes league narratives, elevating Lokomotiva's momentum while prompting Gorica introspection on finishing woes. Clean play without reds preserved match integrity, affirming tactical discipline's value over raw control.

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

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