Gorica vs Istra 1961 Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
ŠRC Velika Gorica Mon, 27 Apr - 4:00 PM
1. HNL
Gorica Gorica
1 Winner 0
Istra 1961 Istra 1961
Full Time Mon, 27 Apr 4:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Jurica Prsir - 31'
Goal
|

Gorica vs Istra 1961 preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

Gorica secured a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Istra 1961 in a tightly contested match, taking the lead in the first half with a 1-0 scoreline at halftime and holding firm thereafter. Despite enjoying only 43% possession compared to Istra's 57%, Gorica demonstrated resilience and clinical finishing to claim all three points. Istra 1961, considered the stronger side entering the game, dominated territorial play but failed to convert chances into goals, leaving them frustrated. The underdogs' triumph marked a significant structural deviation of 51.1% from pre-match expectations, highlighting Gorica's defensive solidity and opportunistic attack. No red cards disrupted the flow, and the second half saw no major tactical adjustments from either side. Gorica's win boosts their confidence, while Istra must regroup after this setback.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Gorica's 1-0 win represented a significant 51.1% structural deviation favoring the home side.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented assessment of outcome alignment.
  • Market alignment: Result aligned fully with pre-market probability distributions.
  • xG expectations: Missing xG figures precluded evaluation against expectations.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
I. Starčević
I. Starčević
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.98
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.2
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.4
J. Bošnjak
J. Bošnjak
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.98
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.2
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.4
P. Kolarić
P. Kolarić
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.98
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.2
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.4
N. Vuković
N. Vuković
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.98
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.2
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.4
Gorica M. Carević
M. Carević
VS
Istra 1961 K. Režić
K. Režić
1.2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.05
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vukovar Rank: W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: L
Hajduk Split Rank: L
Varaždin Rank: D
Rijeka Rank: W
Osijek Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: L
Vukovar Rank: L
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: L
Hajduk Split Rank: L
Varaždin Rank: W
Rijeka Rank: W
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 10 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Gorica
48.91%
Draw
27.51%
Away Istra 1961
23.57%

Movement

Changes since opening
Gorica
-46.32%
Draw
+22.93%
Istra 1961
+23.38%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
20.43
21.34
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Gorica
Istra 1961
Power Score
20.43
21.34
League Position
6
8
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Gorica — Opponent-weighted form score
Istra 1961 — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Gorica Istra 1961

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Gorica

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Istra 1961

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Gorica ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Istra 1961
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
36.74
27.72
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.72
36.74
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Gorica +0.92 Efficiency Index
vs
Istra 1961 -0.92 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Gorica
Istra 1961
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Gorica ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Istra 1961
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Gorica Istra 1961
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Gorica Istra 1961
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Gorica
Istra 1961
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Gorica
vs
Istra 1961
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Gorica Istra 1961
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Gorica 0.39
Istra 1961 0.39
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Gorica Istra 1961
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Gorica 0.00
Istra 1961 0.03
Gorica
Istra 1961
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Gorica had peak pressure around 19'.
  • Istra 1961 started the game with stronger pressure.
  • Both teams' pressure dropped after the 30th minute.
Gorica Pressure Istra 1961 Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Gorica reached the top pressure at 19' (81.69).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Gorica Gorica Home
31 matches
Istra 1961 Istra 1961 Away
Match Record
14
Wins
7
10
Draws
10
7
Losses
14
Goals
45
Goals Scored
30
30
Goals Conceded
45
+15
Goal Difference
-15
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-28T00:01:40+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Matijaš
Croatia
71 D. Matijaš
S. Peric
Austria
45 S. Peric
J. Filipović
Croatia
4 J. Filipović
M. Leš
Croatia
5 M. Leš
Ž. Trontelj
Slovenia
22 Ž. Trontelj
I. Pozo La Rosa
Spain
8 I. Pozo La Rosa
A. Kavelj
Croatia
36 A. Kavelj
B. Bogojević
Substitution
Croatia
25 B. Bogojević
J. Pršir
Substitution
Croatia
10 J. Pršir
D. Pavičić
Substitution
Croatia
24 D. Pavičić
A. Erceg
Substitution
Croatia
50 A. Erceg
F. Kolić
Croatia
1 F. Kolić
M. Heister
Substitution
Germany
26 M. Heister
R. Kumar
Croatia
38 R. Kumar
F. Taraba
Bosnia and Herzegovina
24 F. Taraba
A. Kadušić
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
97 A. Kadušić
A. Mauric
Substitution
Croatia
8 A. Mauric
L. Štulac
Slovenia
23 L. Štulac
V. Rozić
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
7 V. Rozić
S. Lončar
Bosnia and Herzegovina
10 S. Lončar
E. Frederiksen
Substitution
Denmark
17 E. Frederiksen
S. Prevljak
Bosnia and Herzegovina
9 S. Prevljak

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 27, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
ŠRC Velika Gorica
Capacity
8000
Attendance
742
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ivan Starčević
Josip Bošnjak
Patrik Kolarić
N. Vuković

Statistics

Possession
Gorica
45%
Istra 1961
55%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 1
4 Shots 7
36 Dangerous attacks 36
43 Possession 57
11 Corners 5
11 Free kicks 12
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

21 Dribble Attempts 15
22 Throwins 23
52 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67
6 Goal Kicks 8
11 Successful Dribbles 10
1 Assists 0
1 Hit Woodwork 1
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

64 Attacks 75
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

19 Successful Long Passes 21
54 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46
257 Successful Passes 365
311 Passes 434
83 Successful Passes Percentage 84
35 Long Passes 46

Defensive

4 Saves 3
8 Interceptions 4
10 Tackles 23
40 Duels Won 55

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 18
6 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

12 Fouls 11
6 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Patrik Kolarić

Starting XI ▼

71
Davor Matijas
Davor Matijas Goalkeeper
6.75
4
Jakov Filipovic
Jakov Filipovic Defender
6.8
5
Mateo Les
Mateo Les Defender
6.53
45
Stefan Peric
Stefan Peric Defender
6.68
8
Iker Pozo
Iker Pozo Midfielder
7.14
22
Zan Trontelj
Zan Trontelj Midfielder
6.93
25
Bruno Bogojevic
Bruno Bogojevic Midfielder
6.68
11
Sule Wisdom Aondowase
Sule Wisdom Aondowase
Attacker73'
6.57
36
Ante Kavelj
Ante Kavelj Midfielder
6.85
10
Jurica Prsir
Jurica Prsir Attacker
6.94
64
Théo Epailly
Théo Epailly
Attacker67'
6.61
24
Domagoj Pavicic
Domagoj Pavicic Attacker
6.78
32
Elvir Durakovic
Elvir Durakovic
Defender82'
6.61
50
Ante Erceg
Ante Erceg Attacker
6.88
7
Ognjen Bakic
Ognjen Bakic
Midfielder73'
6.63
Referee : Patrik Kolarić

Starting XI ▼

1
Franko Kolic
Franko Kolic Goalkeeper
6.93
24
Filip Taraba
Filip Taraba Defender
6.54
26
Marcel Heister
Marcel Heister Defender
6.72
13
Niko Šepić
Niko Šepić
Defender78'
6.62
38
Raul Kumar
Raul Kumar Defender
6.73
97
Advan Kadusic
Advan Kadusic Defender
6.81
44
R. Hrvatin
R. Hrvatin
Defender90'
5.87
7
Vinko Rozic
Vinko Rozic Midfielder
6.63
77
Charles Adah Agada
Charles Adah Agada
Attacker78'
6.57
8
Antonio Mauric
Antonio Mauric Midfielder
6.8
20
Dukan Ahmeti
Dukan Ahmeti
Midfielder46'
6.47
10
Stjepan Loncar
Stjepan Loncar Midfielder
6.86
17
Emil Frederiksen
Emil Frederiksen Midfielder
6.94
29
Allen Obando
Allen Obando
Attacker85'
6.56
23
Leo Stulac
Leo Stulac Midfielder
6.76
9
Smail Prevljak
Smail Prevljak Attacker
6.88

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Smail Prevljak
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
90'
Event
R. Hrvatin → Advan Kadusic
9th Substitution
Event
Stefan Peric
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
89'
87'
Event
Raul Kumar
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
85'
Event
Allen Obando → Emil Frederiksen
8th Substitution
Event
Elvir Durakovic → Domagoj Pavicic
7th Substitution
82'
78'
Event
Niko Šepić → Marcel Heister
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Charles Adah Agada → Vinko Rozic
5th Substitution
Event
Ognjen Bakic → Ante Erceg
3rd Substitution
73'
Event
Sule Wisdom Aondowase → Bruno Bogojevic
4th Substitution
73'
Event
Théo Epailly → Jurica Prsir
2nd Substitution
67'
57'
Event
Advan Kadusic
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Ante Erceg
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
50'
46'
Event
Dukan Ahmeti → Antonio Mauric
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+1'
Event
Vinko Rozic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Jurica Prsir
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
31'

CONCLUSION

Gorica's 1-0 triumph over the stronger Istra 1961 underscores the value of defensive organization and timely scoring in low-possession games. Holding a halftime lead proved decisive, as Istra's higher possession failed to yield breakthroughs. This significant deviation from expectations rewards Gorica's tactical discipline, potentially shifting momentum in their campaign. Istra will rue missed opportunities, needing sharper finishing moving forward. Overall, the match exemplifies how underdogs can prevail through grit, setting a positive tone for Gorica's upcoming fixtures.

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

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