Gorica vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
ŠRC Velika Gorica Tomorrow - 2:00 PM
1. HNL
Gorica Gorica
Versus
Dinamo Zagreb GNK
KICKOFF : Tomorrow - 2:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

Gorica vs Dinamo Zagreb preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

Gorica host Dinamo Zagreb in 1. HNL (Regular Season) at ŠRC Velika Gorica. Domestically, Gorica sit 6th in the table while Dinamo Zagreb are 1th. Power ranking favours Dinamo Zagreb by 18.7 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Dinamo Zagreb possess an 18.7-point power advantage over Gorica, positioning them as the stronger side.
  • Form: Dinamo Zagreb's form score of 33.94 outstrips Gorica's 20.78.
  • Squad: Dinamo Zagreb lead the 1. HNL in 1st place, while Gorica hold 6th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition metrics not provided in available data.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance data unavailable due to lack of xG.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables absent with low-confidence proxies used.
  • Market: Gorica 14% (Δ+0%) | Draw 21.8% (Δ+0%) | Dinamo Zagreb 64.2% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Gorica M. Carević
M. Carević
VS
Dinamo Zagreb M. Kovačević
M. Kovačević
1.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.55
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Istra 1961 Rank: W
Vukovar Rank: W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: L
Hajduk Split Rank: L
Varaždin Rank: D
Rijeka Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Varaždin Rank: W
Istra 1961 Rank: W
Rijeka Rank: D
Vukovar Rank: W
Osijek Rank: W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: W
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 5 - 23
23
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Gorica
13.95%
Draw
21.82%
Away Dinamo Zagreb
64.23%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
22.08
40.73
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Gorica
Dinamo Zagreb
Power Score
22.08
40.73
League Position
6
1
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Gorica — Opponent-weighted form score
Dinamo Zagreb — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Gorica Dinamo Zagreb

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Gorica Gorica Home
31 matches
Dinamo Zagreb GNK Away
Match Record
3
Wins
23
5
Draws
5
23
Losses
3
Goals
24
Goals Scored
58
58
Goals Conceded
24
-34
Goal Difference
+34
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-30T00:12:23+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
D. Matijaš
71 D. Matijaš
S. Peric
45 S. Peric
J. Filipović
4 J. Filipović
M. Čabraja
19 M. Čabraja
Ž. Trontelj
22 Ž. Trontelj
I. Pozo La Rosa
8 I. Pozo La Rosa
A. Kavelj
36 A. Kavelj
B. Bogojević
25 B. Bogojević
J. Pršir
10 J. Pršir
D. Pavičić
24 D. Pavičić
A. Erceg
50 A. Erceg
D. Livaković
40 D. Livaković
M. Vinlöf
22 M. Vinlöf
S. McKenna
26 S. McKenna
S. Domínguez Viloria
36 S. Domínguez Viloria
M. Valincic
25 M. Valincic
I. Bennacer
4 I. Bennacer
J. Mišić
27 J. Mišić
L. Stojković
7 L. Stojković
A. Hoxha
11 A. Hoxha
D. Dijon
9 D. Dijon
M. Lisica
21 M. Lisica

General Information

Date & Time
May 02, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
ŠRC Velika Gorica
Capacity
8000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

71
Davor Matijas
Davor Matijas Goalkeeper
6.75
10
Jurica Prsir
Jurica Prsir Midfielder
6.94
22
Zan Trontelj
Zan Trontelj Midfielder
6.93
24
Domagoj Pavicic
Domagoj Pavicic Midfielder
6.78
25
Bruno Bogojevic
Bruno Bogojevic Midfielder
6.68
50
Ante Erceg
Ante Erceg Centre Forward
6.88
4
Jakov Filipovic
Jakov Filipovic Centre Back
6.8
19
Marijan Cabraja
Marijan Cabraja Left Back
7.05
36
Ante Kavelj
Ante Kavelj Central Midfield
6.85
8
Iker Pozo
Iker Pozo Central Midfield
7.14
45
Stefan Peric
Stefan Peric Right Back
6.68

Starting XI ▼

40
Dominik Livakovic
Dominik Livakovic Goalkeeper
6.64
9
Dion Beljo
Dion Beljo Centre Forward
7.54
11
Arbër Hoxha
Arbër Hoxha Attacker
6.97
21
Mateo Lisica
Mateo Lisica Attacker
6.98
4
Ismaël Bennacer
Ismaël Bennacer Central Midfield
7.17
22
Matteo Pérez Vinlöf
Matteo Pérez Vinlöf Left Back
6.94
25
Moris Valincic
Moris Valincic Right Back
6.84
26
Scott McKenna
Scott McKenna Left Back
7.13
27
Josip Misic
Josip Misic Central Midfield
7.25
7
Luka Stojkovic
Luka Stojkovic Central Midfield
7.26
36
Sergi Domínguez
Sergi Domínguez Right Back
7.09

CONCLUSION

Dinamo Zagreb's superior power, form, and league standing make them heavy favorites against Gorica. The 18.7-point edge and top-table position suggest control in midfield and attack, likely overwhelming Gorica's mid-table setup. Home advantage may spur Gorica to early resistance, but lacking advanced metrics like efficiency or set pieces, they face an uphill task. Dinamo's consistency points to a comfortable victory, capitalizing on transitions and open play. Gorica need standout defending to frustrate, yet Dinamo's quality should secure three points in this uneven contest.

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

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