Fredericia vs Odense BK Prediction, Preview and Stats

Denmark flag 2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark
Monjasa Park Sun, 26 Apr - 12:00 PM
Superliga
Fredericia Fredericia
0 Winner 2
Odense BK ODE
Full Time Sun, 26 Apr 12:00 PM
Round 7 Relegation Round
|
Goal
Ismahila Ouédraogo - 12'
Fiete Arp - 31'

Fredericia vs Odense BK preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

Fredericia faced Odense BK at home in a match that ended 0-2 in favor of the visitors. Odense BK struck twice in the first half to lead 0-2 at halftime, setting the tone early. Despite Fredericia holding a slight 51% possession edge, they failed to create meaningful chances, while Odense BK maintained control with 49% possession and clinical finishing. No red cards disrupted play, and the second half saw no major adjustments from either side. As the stronger team, Odense BK delivered a professional victory, aligning with pre-match expectations. The minimal structural deviation of 2.1% underscored their dominance without overperformance. Efficiency stayed in line throughout, reflecting a straightforward win for the away side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Minimal structural deviation of 2.1% benefited Odense BK.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment held true for the outcome.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable from missing metrics.
  • Event impact: No notable events altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Putros
S. Putros
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.47
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.17
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
D. Rasmussen
D. Rasmussen
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.47
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.17
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
R. Risum
R. Risum
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.47
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.17
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
S. Aagerup
S. Aagerup
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.47
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.17
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Fredericia M. Hansen
M. Hansen
VS
Odense BK A. Zorniger
A. Zorniger
1.19
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.38
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Randers FC Rank: D
Silkeborg IF Rank: D
Vejle Boldklub Rank: D
Odense BK Rank: L
FC København Rank: W
Randers FC Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC København Rank: L
Randers FC Rank: W
Silkeborg IF Rank: L
Fredericia Rank: W
Vejle Boldklub Rank: D
FC København Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Fredericia
0.2%
Draw
1.92%
Away Odense BK
97.89%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
19.82
23.65
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Fredericia
Odense BK
Power Score
19.82
23.65
League Position
10
8
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Fredericia — Opponent-weighted form score
Odense BK — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Fredericia Odense BK

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Fredericia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Odense BK

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Fredericia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Odense BK
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
49.31
32.35
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.35
49.31
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Fredericia +1.59 Efficiency Index
vs
Odense BK -1.59 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Fredericia
Odense BK
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Fredericia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Odense BK
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Fredericia Odense BK
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Fredericia Odense BK
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Fredericia
Odense BK
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Fredericia
vs
Odense BK
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Fredericia Odense BK
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Fredericia 0.35
Odense BK 0.38
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Fredericia Odense BK
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Fredericia 0.05
Odense BK 0.00
Fredericia
Odense BK
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ODE had peak pressure around 68'.
  • Fredericia started the game with stronger pressure.
Fredericia Pressure ODE Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ODE reached the top pressure at 68' (77.33).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Fredericia Fredericia Home
3 matches
Odense BK ODE Away
Match Record
0
Wins
3
0
Draws
0
3
Losses
0
Goals
3
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
3
-4
Goal Difference
+4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:03:32+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-2-2
Pitch
V. Thorsen
Denmark
90 V. Thorsen
S. Crone
Denmark
12 S. Crone
A. Nygaard Andersen
Denmark
3 A. Nygaard Andersen
F. Thykær Rieper
Denmark
5 F. Thykær Rieper
J. Jessen
Substitution
Denmark
8 J. Jessen
A. Andersen
Substitution
Denmark
18 A. Andersen
F. Winther
Denmark
6 F. Winther
S. Østergaard Grandjean Johannesen
Substitution
Denmark
16 S. Østergaard Grandjean Johannesen
J. Holm Lindekilde
Substitution
Denmark
21 J. Holm Lindekilde
D. Kristjánsson
Substitution
Iceland
17 D. Kristjánsson
F. Ubi Etim
Nigeria
25 F. Ubi Etim
V. Røsholt Myhra
Norway
16 V. Røsholt Myhra
M. McCoy
Denmark
15 M. McCoy
J. Berthel Askou Harvey
Substitution
Denmark
13 J. Berthel Askou Harvey
N. Bürgy
Switzerland
5 N. Bürgy
L. Owusu
Substitution
Netherlands
20 L. Owusu
I. Ouédraogo
Substitution
Burkina Faso
22 I. Ouédraogo
R. Falk Jensen
Denmark
8 R. Falk Jensen
J. Arp
Substitution
Germany
7 J. Arp
M. Ejdum
Denmark
18 M. Ejdum
J. Niemiec
Substitution
Germany
11 J. Niemiec
N. Ganaus
Germany
17 N. Ganaus

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 26, 2026, 12:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark · Round 7 · Relegation Round
Stadium
Monjasa Park
Capacity
10000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Sandi Putros
Dennis Wollenberg Rasmussen
Rene Risum
Sebastian Friis Aagerup

Statistics

Possession
Fredericia
52%
ODE
48%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
0 Big Chances Created 3
9 Shots 10
63 Dangerous attacks 37
51 Possession 49
4 Corners 3
12 Free kicks 13
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

1 Hit Woodwork 0
60 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
0 Injuries 2
25 Dribble Attempts 11
27 Throwins 11
0 Assists 1
15 Successful Dribbles 5
11 Goal Kicks 10
11 Goal Attempts 9
73 Ball Safe 83
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

8 Counter Attacks 11
58 Attacks 60
0 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37
80 Successful Passes Percentage 84
56 Long Passes 52
16 Key Passes 10
480 Passes 459
27 Successful Long Passes 19
384 Successful Passes 385

Defensive

15 Tackles 18
51 Duels Won 48
8 Interceptions 21
1 Saves 5

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 2
25 Total Crosses 14

Discipline

13 Fouls 12
4 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Sandi Putros

Starting XI ▼

90
Valdemar Birksø Thorsen
Valdemar Birksø Thorsen Goalkeeper
7.02
3
Adam Nygaard Andersen
Adam Nygaard Andersen Defender
6.55
5
Frederik Thykær Rieper
Frederik Thykær Rieper Defender
7
8
Jakob Jessen
Jakob Jessen Defender
6.84
29
Elias Hansborg-Sørensen
Elias Hansborg-Sørensen
Attacker68'
6.42
12
Svenn Crone
Svenn Crone Defender
6.45
6
Felix Winther
Felix Winther Midfielder
7.09
16
Sofus Johannesen
Sofus Johannesen Midfielder
6.84
10
Emilio Simonsen
Emilio Simonsen
Midfielder57'
6.75
17
Daníel Freyr Kristjánsson
Daníel Freyr Kristjánsson Midfielder
6.62
9
Patrick Egelund
Patrick Egelund
Attacker57'
6.67
18
Andreas Pyndt
Andreas Pyndt Midfielder
6.71
14
Anders Dahl
Anders Dahl
Defender67'
6.47
21
Jonatan Holm Lindekilde
Jonatan Holm Lindekilde Midfielder
6.78
19
Eskild Munk Dall
Eskild Munk Dall
Attacker84'
6.66
25
Etim
Etim Attacker
6.96
Referee : Sandi Putros

Starting XI ▼

16
Viljar Myhra
Viljar Myhra Goalkeeper
6.93
5
Nicolas Bürgy
Nicolas Bürgy Defender
6.7
13
Julius Berthel Askou
Julius Berthel Askou Defender
6.91
24
Yaya Bojang
Yaya Bojang
Defender46'
6.65
15
Marcus McCoy
Marcus McCoy Defender
6.84
20
Leeroy Owusu
Leeroy Owusu Defender
6.86
3
Adam Sørensen
Adam Sørensen
Defender60'
6.6
7
Fiete Arp
Fiete Arp Midfielder
7.17
6
Jakob Bonde
Jakob Bonde
Midfielder86'
6.7
8
Rasmus Falk
Rasmus Falk Midfielder
7.01
18
Max Ejdum
Max Ejdum Midfielder
6.99
22
Ismahila Ouédraogo
Ismahila Ouédraogo Midfielder
6.86
23
William Martin
William Martin
Midfielder69'
6.6
11
Jona Niemiec
Jona Niemiec Attacker
6.74
31
Jay-Roy Grot
Jay-Roy Grot
Attacker60'
6.84
17
Noah Ganaus
Noah Ganaus Attacker
6.96

Events

2ND-HALF
86'
Event
Jakob Bonde → Fiete Arp
10th Substitution
Event
Eskild Munk Dall → Jonatan Holm Lindekilde
9th Substitution
84'
Event
Felix Winther
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
76'
69'
Event
Adam Sørensen
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
69'
Event
William Martin → Ismahila Ouédraogo
8th Substitution
Event
Elias Hansborg-Sørensen → Jakob Jessen
7th Substitution
68'
Event
Anders Dahl → Andreas Pyndt
6th Substitution
67'
60'
Event
Jay-Roy Grot → Jona Niemiec
4th Substitution
60'
Event
Adam Sørensen → Leeroy Owusu
5th Substitution
Event
Emilio Simonsen → Sofus Johannesen
3rd Substitution
57'
Event
Patrick Egelund → Daníel Freyr Kristjánsson
2nd Substitution
57'
46'
Event
Yaya Bojang → Julius Berthel Askou
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Etim
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
45+2'
31'
Event
Fiete Arp
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
12'
Event
Ismahila Ouédraogo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Odense BK secured a convincing 0-2 away win over Fredericia, scoring both goals before halftime to establish dominance. Fredericia's marginal possession advantage proved insufficient against the stronger visitors' organization and finishing. With no red cards or tactical shifts in the second half, the result reflected Odense BK's superior quality and minimal deviation from expected performance. This outcome aligns with their status as the favored side, showcasing efficiency without excess. Fredericia will rue missed opportunities, but Odense BK's control ensures they take maximum points.

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

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