Zürich vs Thun Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Stadion Letzigrund Sat, 21 Mar - 5:00 PM
Super League Zürich ZUR 
2 
1
1
Thun THU Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 5:00 PM
Round 31 · Regular Season
Ivan Cavaleiro - 77'
Damienus Reverson - 15'
|
Leonardo Bertone - 38'
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion Promotion Playoffs Relegation
Data last checked: May 15
CONTEXT
The match has finished, with Zürich securing a 1-0 victory over Thun. This result represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, as Zürich decisively defied their underdog status. The betting markets originally favored Thun with a 60.5% implied win probability, leaving Zürich with a mere 16.9% chance of taking the victory and a 22.6% likelihood of a draw. Ultimately, the outcome was entirely unaligned with these pre-match market predictions. On the pitch, underlying metrics painted a different picture from the scoreline. Thun controlled the tempo with 57% possession compared to Zürich's 43%, generating
TL;DR
- Structural deviation: Zürich showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
- Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
- xG alignment: The final outcome was contrary to expected goal differential.
- Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
- xG expectations: Diverging from xG expectations (Classify).
- Event impact: No major event distortion.
- Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
D. Hediger
VS
M. Lustrinelli
0.88
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.42
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sion Rank: 58 L
Servette Rank: 59 L
Lausanne Sport Rank: 57 L
Young Boys Rank: 63 L
Grasshopper Rank: 50 W
Luzern Rank: 59 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Grasshopper Rank: 51 W
Young Boys Rank: 62 W
St. Gallen Rank: 62 D
Luzern Rank: 59 W
Winterthur Rank: 46 W
Sion Rank: 59 W
26
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
26 - 13 - 10
10
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min) Zürich16.9%
Draw
22.6%
Thun60.5%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
52.59 56.84 0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Zürich ThunPower Score
52.59
56.84
League Position
10
1
Global Rank
689
297
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Zürich — Opponent-weighted form score
Thun — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Zürich Thun
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Zürich
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Thun
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Zürich ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Thun
Attacking Efficiency Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.05
42.54
Defensive Efficiency Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
42.54
21.05
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Zürich -1.93 Efficiency Index
vs
Thun +1.93 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Zürich
Thun
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Zürichvs
Thun
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Zürich Thun Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Zürich Thun Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Zürich
Thun
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 49 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Zürich ZUR Home
49 matches
Thun THU Away
Match Record 26
Wins
10
13
Draws
13
10
Losses
26
Goals 94
Goals Scored
65
65
Goals Conceded
94
+29
Goal Difference
-29
Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:22:58+00:00
STARTING XI
Zürich Thun Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-4-2
1 S. Huber
D. Ihendu
#4873'
35 D. Vujevic
42 A. Hack
27 I. Sauter
6 C. Tsawa
15 N. Palacio
23 V. Berisha
L. Comenencia
#380'
44 S. Walker
19 (C) P. Keny
J. Perea Mendoza
#973'
29 D. Reverson
M. Bangoura
#1887'
8 I. Neves Abreu Cavaleiro
24 N. Steffen
27 M. Heule
19 J. Bamert
4 G. Montolio Lafuente
J. Roth
#1688'
47 F. Fehr
F. Dursun
#979'
77 F. Meichtry
L. Dähler
#3788'
14 M. Käit
6 (C) L. Bertone
K. Imeri
#775'
70 N. Reichmuth
74 E. Rastoder
C. Ibayi
#1875'
96 B. Labeau Melchior
General Information
📅 Date & Time :
Mar 21, 2026, 05:00 PM
🏆 Competition :
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland · Round 31 · Regular Season
🏟️ Stadium :
Stadion Letzigrund
👥 Capacity :
26104
🌱 Pitch Surface :
Grass
🌤️ Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
🧑⚖️ Referees :
Linda Schmid
Lukas Fähndrich
Guillaume Maire
Hüseyin Sanli
Next Match
Zürich
vs
St. Gallen
League: Super League
Kickoff: Mon, 6 Apr - 2:30 PM
Venue: Away
Thun
vs
Lugano
League: Super League
Kickoff: Sat, 4 Apr - 4:00 PM
Venue: Away
Statistics
Possession
ZUR
43%
THU
57%
Top Statistics
2 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 3
5 Shots 7
21 Dangerous attacks 65
43 Possession 57
2 Corners 9
19 Free kicks 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
Match Overview
2 Successful Dribbles 12
18 Throwins 28
13 Goal Kicks 5
2 Assists 1
5 Goal Attempts 19
0 Hit Woodwork 1
22 Successful Dribbles Percentage 46
87 Ball Safe 74
9 Dribble Attempts 26
2 Injuries 1
4 Substitutions 5
Attacking
1 Big Chances Missed 3
69 Attacks 93
Possession
57 Successful Passes Percentage 70
157 Successful Passes 240
94 Long Passes 68
6 Key Passes 17
34 Successful Long Passes 21
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 31
274 Passes 342
Defensive
7 Saves 3
25 Tackles 22
7 Interceptions 9
Build-up
9 Total Crosses 28
6 Accurate Crosses 6
Discipline
15 Fouls 19
Lineup
Zürich Referee : Lukas Fähndrich
Manager ▼
D. Hediger Coach
Starting XI ▼
1 Silas Huber Goalkeeper
827 Ilan Sauter Defender
7.2835 David Vujevic Defender
7.14
48Daniel Ihendu
6.67Defender73'
42 Alexander Hack Defender
7.486 Cheveyo Tsawa Midfielder
6.29
15 Nelson Palacio Midfielder
6.223 Valon Berisha Midfielder
7.6444 Sebastian Walker Midfielder
6.753Livano Comenencia
6.48Defender80'
8 Ivan Cavaleiro Attacker
18Mohamed Bangoura
Midfielder87'
19 Philippe Paulin Keny (C) Attacker
6.629 Damienus Reverson Attacker
9Juan José Perea
Attacker73'
6.66
Substitutes ▼
9Juan José Perea
Attacker73'
6.66
48Daniel Ihendu
6.67Defender73'
3Livano Comenencia
6.48Defender80'
18Mohamed Bangoura
Midfielder87'
Bench ▼
25
Yanick Brecher Goalkeeper
32
Selmin Hodza Defender
14 Nevio Di Giusto Midfielder
38 Miguel Reichmuth Midfielder
11
Umeh Emmanuel Attacker
Thun Referee : Lukas Fähndrich
Manager ▼
M. Lustrinelli Coach
Starting XI ▼
24 Niklas Steffen Goalkeeper
6.694 Genís Montolio Defender
6.4219 Jan Bamert Defender
7.2927 Michael Heule Defender
7.2547 Fabio Fehr Defender
6.0316Justin Roth
Midfielder88'
6 Leonardo Bertone (C) Midfielder
14 Mattias Käit Midfielder
6.8137Lucien Dähler
Defender88'
70 Nils Reichmuth Midfielder
6.777Kastriot Imeri
6.48Midfielder75'
77 Franz-Ethan Meichtry Midfielder
6.6
9Furkan Dursun
6.49Attacker79'
74 Elmin Rastoder Attacker
6.9696 Brighton Labeau Attacker
6.6518Christopher Ibayi
Attacker75'
6.24
Substitutes ▼
18Christopher Ibayi
Attacker75'
6.24
7Kastriot Imeri
6.48Midfielder75'
9Furkan Dursun
6.49Attacker79'
37Lucien Dähler
Defender88'
16Justin Roth
Midfielder88'
Bench ▼
25 Tim Spycher Goalkeeper
5 Dominik Franke Defender
8 Vasilije Janjicic Midfielder
20 Noah Rupp Midfielder
Events
2ND-HALF
Juan José Perea
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
90+8'
88'
Lucien Dähler → Mattias Käit
8th Substitution
88'
Justin Roth → Fabio Fehr
9th Substitution
Mohamed Bangoura → Ivan Cavaleiro
7th Substitution
87'
84'
Christopher Ibayi
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Livano Comenencia → Sebastian Walker
6th Substitution
80'
79'
Furkan Dursun → Franz-Ethan Meichtry
5th Substitution
Ivan Cavaleiro
Header / 3rd Goal
77'
75'
Christopher Ibayi → Brighton Labeau
3rd Substitution
75'
Kastriot Imeri → Nils Reichmuth
4th Substitution
Juan José Perea → Damienus Reverson
2nd Substitution
73'
Daniel Ihendu → David Vujevic
1st Substitution
73'
Cheveyo Tsawa
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
68'
66'
Brighton Labeau
Penalty cancelled
1ST-HALF
41'
Franz-Ethan Meichtry
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
38'
Leonardo Bertone
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
David Vujevic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
25'
Damienus Reverson
Header / 1st Goal
15'
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Zürich exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.
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