Zulte-Waregem vs Dender Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Elindus Arena Sat, 9 May - 2:00 PM
Pro League
Zulte-Waregem ZUL
2 Winner 1
Dender DEN
Full Time Sat, 9 May 2:00 PM
Round 6 Relegation Round
Bryan Goncalves - 45+2' (Own Goal)
Marley Ake - 41'
Goal
|
Goal
Bryan Goncalves - 25' (P)

CONTEXT

Zulte-Waregem claimed a hard-fought 2-1 home win against Dender in the Belgian Pro League. The hosts surged ahead in the first half, scoring both goals to lead 2-1 at halftime, setting the tone for the match. Despite Dender being viewed as the stronger side pre-match, Zulte-Waregem maintained control with 53% possession compared to Dender's 47%. The second half saw Dender push for an equalizer, but Zulte-Waregem's defense held firm, preserving their lead. No red cards disrupted play, allowing a fluid contest. This result highlights Zulte-Waregem's clinical finishing and resilience, minimally deviating from structural norms at 3.5%. The victory boosts their campaign, while Dender rue missed opportunities.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Zulte-Waregem's 2-1 win featured minimal structural deviation of 3.5%.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented alignment evaluation.
  • Market alignment: Final outcome fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable due to absent metrics.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion to game dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

B. Put

Belgium 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

B. Bijnens

1st Assistant

Belgium

M. De Cuyper

2nd Assistant

Belgium

T. Stevens

4th Official

Belgium

League averages

Pro League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 19.17
Yellow cards / match 3.22
Red cards / match 0.18
Penalties / match 0.34
Zulte-Waregem S. Colpaert
S. Colpaert
VS
Dender A. Abdul Raouf
A. Abdul Raouf
1.24
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.95
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cercle Brugge Rank: 70 W
La Louvière Rank: 64 W
La Louvière Rank: 65 W
Dender Rank: 61 W
Cercle Brugge Rank: 68 D
Sporting Charleroi Rank: 72 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
La Louvière Rank: 64 W
Cercle Brugge Rank: 69 L
Cercle Brugge Rank: 68 L
Zulte-Waregem Rank: 69 L
La Louvière Rank: 65 W
Gent Rank: 71 L
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 1 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Zulte-Waregem
96.48%
Draw
3.33%
Away Dender
0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
Zulte-Waregem
+0.37%
Draw
-0.37%
Dender
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
58.41
60.6
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Zulte-Waregem
Dender
Power Score
58.41
60.6
League Position
13
16
Global Rank
239
470

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Zulte-Waregem — Opponent-weighted form score
Dender — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Zulte-Waregem Dender

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Zulte-Waregem

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Dender

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Zulte-Waregem ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dender
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
37.92
24.26
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.26
37.92
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Zulte-Waregem +1.29 Efficiency Index
vs
Dender -1.29 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Zulte-Waregem
Dender
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Zulte-Waregem ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dender
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Zulte-Waregem Dender
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Zulte-Waregem Dender
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Zulte-Waregem
Dender
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Zulte-Waregem
vs
Dender
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Zulte-Waregem Dender
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Zulte-Waregem 0.86
Dender 0.36
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Zulte-Waregem Dender
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Zulte-Waregem 0.04
Dender 0.09
Zulte-Waregem
Dender
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ZUL had peak pressure around 73'.
  • ZUL started the game with stronger pressure.
ZUL Pressure DEN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ZUL reached the top pressure at 73' (94.11).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Zulte-Waregem ZUL Home
7 matches
Dender DEN Away
Match Record
3
Wins
3
1
Draws
1
3
Losses
3
Goals
8
Goals Scored
9
9
Goals Conceded
8
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T00:03:01+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch
B. Gabriel
Belgium
13 B. Gabriel
B. De Jaegere
Substitution
45 B. De Jaegere
L. Lemoine
Substitution
Belgium
4 L. Lemoine
L. Willen
Belgium
31 L. Willen
M. Ake
France
39 M. Ake
S. Ujka
Albania
36 S. Ujka
T. Claes
Belgium
8 T. Claes
Y. Cappelle
Belgium
55 Y. Cappelle
J. Opoku
Ghana
22 J. Opoku
T. Hedl
Substitution
Austria
20 T. Hedl
J. Vossen
Substitution
Belgium
9 J. Vossen
Pitch
G. Dietsch
France
30 G. Dietsch
B. Goncalves
France
7 B. Goncalves
L. De Fougerolles
Substitution
Canada
44 L. De Fougerolles
L. Marijnissen
Netherlands
5 L. Marijnissen
R. Oratmangoen
Netherlands
11 R. Oratmangoen
M. Viltard
Substitution
France
24 M. Viltard
N. Rodes
Substitution
Belgium
18 N. Rodes
J. Sambu Mansoni
Belgium
70 J. Sambu Mansoni
K. Koton
Poland
15 K. Koton
R. Květ
Substitution
Czech Republic
16 R. Květ
M. Berte
Substitution
Belgium
90 M. Berte

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 6 · Relegation Round
Stadium :
Elindus Arena
Capacity :
12500
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Bryan Bijnens
Bert Put
Michiel De Cuyper
Tom Stevens

Statistics

Possession
ZUL
54%
DEN
46%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
5 Big Chances Created 3
5 Shots 5
22 Dangerous attacks 28
53 Possession 47
9 Corners 2
12 Free kicks 7
1 Yellow Cards 5

Match Overview

21 Throwins 18
9 Goal Kicks 6
56 Successful Dribbles Percentage 55
109 Ball Safe 93
16 Dribble Attempts 11
9 Successful Dribbles 6
0 Penalties 1
5 Substitutions 5
6 Goal Attempts 8

Attacking

81 Attacks 84
4 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

73 Long Passes 64
34 Successful Long Passes 16
47 Successful Long Passes Percentage 25
312 Successful Passes 261
75 Successful Passes Percentage 70
416 Passes 371
6 Key Passes 4

Defensive

13 Tackles 25
12 Interceptions 11
55 Duels Won 55
4 Saves 3

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 15
1 Accurate Crosses 0

Discipline

4 Offsides 2
8 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Bert Put

Starting XI ▼

13
Brent Gabriel
Brent Gabriel Goalkeeper
4
Laurent Lemoine
Laurent Lemoine Defender
5
Jakob Kiilerich
Jakob Kiilerich
Defender46'
31
Lukas Willen
Lukas Willen Defender
45
Benoit De Jaegere
Benoit De Jaegere Defender
6
Enrique Lofolomo
Enrique Lofolomo
Midfielder46'
8
Thomas Claes
Thomas Claes Midfielder
36
Serxho Ujka
Serxho Ujka Midfielder
39
Marley Ake
Marley Ake Midfielder
55
Yannick Cappelle
Yannick Cappelle Midfielder
9
Jelle Vossen
Jelle Vossen Attacker
11
Stavros Gavriel
Stavros Gavriel
Defender66'
20
Tobias Hedl
Tobias Hedl Attacker
18
Anosike Ementa
Anosike Ementa
Attacker56'
22
Joseph Opoku
Joseph Opoku Attacker
Referee : Bert Put

Starting XI ▼

30
Guillaume Dietsch
Guillaume Dietsch Goalkeeper
5
Luc Marijnissen
Luc Marijnissen Defender
7
Bryan Goncalves
Bryan Goncalves Defender
44
Luc De Fougerolles
Luc De Fougerolles Defender
45
Amine Daali
Amine Daali
Midfielder60'
11
Ragnar Oratmangoen
Ragnar Oratmangoen Midfielder
18
Nathan Rôdes
Nathan Rôdes Midfielder
23
Desmond Acquah
Desmond Acquah
Midfielder70'
24
Malcolm Viltard
Malcolm Viltard Midfielder
9
David Toševski
David Toševski
Attacker60'
70
Marsoni Sambu
Marsoni Sambu Midfielder
15
Krzysztof Koton
Krzysztof Koton Attacker
16
Roman Kvet
Roman Kvet Attacker
46
Victor Elnora Lembi N'Zelo
Victor Elnora Lembi N'Zelo
Defender60'
90
Mohamed Berte
Mohamed Berte Attacker
67
Nail Moutha-Sebtaoui
Nail Moutha-Sebtaoui
Defender60'

Events

2ND-HALF
84'
Event
Desmond Acquah
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Jeppe Erenbjerg → Joseph Okopu
10th Substitution
76'
70'
Event
Desmond Acquah → Nathan Rôdes
9th Substitution
Event
Stavros Gavriel → Jelle Vossen
8th Substitution
66'
60'
Event
David Toševski → Malcolm Viltard
7th Substitution
60'
Event
Amine Daali → Luc De Fougerolles
4th Substitution
60'
Event
Victor Elnora Lembi N'Zelo → Roman Kvet
5th Substitution
60'
Event
Nail Moutha-Sebtaoui → Mohamed Berte
6th Substitution
Event
Anosike Ementa → Tobias Hedl
3rd Substitution
56'
52'
Event
Krzysztof Koton
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
49'
Event
Luc Marijnissen
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Jakob Kiilerich → Laurent Lemoine
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Enrique Lofolomo → Benoit De Jaegere
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Bryan Goncalves
Goal confirmed
45+4'
Event
Bryan Goncalves
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
45+2'
45'
Event
Luc De Fougerolles
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Marley Ake
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
41'
29'
Event
Roman Kvet
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
25'
Event
Bryan Goncalves
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Laurent Lemoine
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
17'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Stavros Gavriel's left-footed shot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Anosike Ementa's header is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Krzysztof Koton takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Update Update
Jakob Kiilerich's header is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Stavros Gavriel takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Amine Daali's left-footed shot is saved.
85
Attempt Attempt
Stavros Gavriel takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
83
Attempt Attempt
Jeppe Erenbjerg's left-footed shot is saved.
76
Update Update
Jeppe Erenbjerg comes on for Joseph Opoku.
73
Attempt Attempt
Desmond Acquah takes a left-footed shot but misses.
70
Update Update
Desmond Acquah replaces Nathan Rodes.
70
Attempt Attempt
David Tosevski takes a shot with his head, but it misses the target.
69
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Nail Moutha-Sebtaoui with his left foot is saved.
68
Attempt Attempt
Ragnar Oratmangoen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
66
Update Update
Stavros Gavriel replaces Jelle Vossen.
62
Attempt Attempt
Marley Ake takes a right-footed shot but misses.
60
Update Update
Elnora Lembi is on, and Roman Kvet is off.
60
Update Update
Nail Moutha-Sebtaoui is on, and Mohamed Berte is off.
60
Update Update
David Tosevski replaces Malcolm Viltard.
60
Update Update
Amine Daali is on, and Luc De Fougerolles is off.
56
Update Update
Anosike Ementa is on, and Tobias Hedl is off.
52
Attempt Attempt
Jelle Vossen's right-footed shot is blocked.
52
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Krzysztof Koton receives a yellow card.
50
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Luc Marijnissen receives a yellow card.
49
Attempt Attempt
Ragnar Oratmangoen takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
49
Attempt Attempt
Nathan Rodes takes a right-footed shot but misses.
49
Attempt Attempt
Krzysztof Koton takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
46
Update Update
Jakob Kiilerich comes on for Laurent Lemoine.
46
Update Update
Enrique Lofolomo replaces Benoit De Jaegere.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Own goal by Bryan Goncalves puts the score at 2-1.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Luc De Fougerolles receives a yellow card.
41
Attempt Attempt
Jelle Vossen's right-footed shot is blocked.
41
Attempt Attempt
Jelle Vossen's right-footed shot is blocked.
41
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Marley Ake scores, making it 1-1.
41
Attempt Attempt
Marley Ake takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
39
Attempt Attempt
Laurent Lemoine attempted a header but missed the shot.
33
Attempt Attempt
Yannick Cappelle takes a right-footed shot but misses.
29
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Roman Kvet receives a yellow card.
25
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Bryan Goncalves scores, making it 0-1.
25
Attempt Attempt
Bryan Goncalves scores with a left-footed shot.
20
Red Card Red Card Important
Luc Marijnissen receives a red card.
17
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Laurent Lemoine.
16
Attempt Attempt
Marley Ake takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
16
Attempt Attempt
Thomas Claes takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
16
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Thomas Claes is blocked.
15
Attempt Attempt
Jelle Vossen's right-footed shot is blocked.
6
Update Update
VAR decision: Goal disallowed for offside against Joseph Opoku.

CONCLUSION

Zulte-Waregem's 2-1 triumph over Dender underscores their first-half dominance and defensive solidity, securing three vital points at home. Leading 2-1 at halftime, they weathered Dender's pressure despite the visitors' stronger pre-match billing. With balanced possession and no disciplinary interruptions, the game exemplified tactical discipline. This minimal deviation result reinforces Zulte-Waregem's upward trajectory, potentially shifting momentum in the league standings. Dender's inability to convert chances highlights areas for improvement, setting up intriguing future fixtures.

Zulte-Waregem vs Dender preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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