Zorya Luhansk vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky Sat, 9 May - 3:00 PM
Premier League Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk 
1 – 1
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Full Time Sat, 9 May 3:00 PM
Round 27 · Regular Season
Reynaldiño Verley - 90+1'
|
Peter Mandela Itodo - 1'
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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Promotion Promotion Playoffs Relegation
Data last checked: May 15
CONTEXT
Zorya Luhansk hosted Metalist 1925 Kharkiv in a hard-fought Ukrainian Premier League clash that ended in a 1-1 draw. The stronger home side, Zorya, started brightly but found themselves trailing 0-1 at halftime after Metalist capitalized on a late first-half opportunity. Possession favored Zorya at 52% to 48%, yet they struggled to break down a resilient visiting defense early on. The second half saw Zorya push forward aggressively, equalizing through determined play and forcing Metalist into defensive mode. Despite chances on both ends, neither team could find a decisive goal, resulting in a share of the spoils. This outcome underscores Zorya's moderate structural deviation, as they underperformed relative to expectations despite their status as favorites. The match showcased tactical discipline from Metalist, who earned a valuable point on the road, while Zorya will rue missed opportunities to secure all three points.
TL;DR
- Structural deviation: Zorya Luhansk showed a moderate 12.9% structural deviation from pre-match expectations.
- Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with overall expectations.
- xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented alignment assessment with final outcome.
- Market alignment: Draw outcome aligned fully with pre-match market positioning.
- xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable due to lack of underlying data.
- Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered match dynamics significantly.
- Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Match referee
K. Zabroda
Ukraine • 25 matches in sample Avg. cards 
0.12
0.12 Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0
Other match officials
V. Kutsev
1st Assistant
UkraineV. Skoblya
2nd Assistant
UkraineO. Solovyan
4th Official
UkraineLeague averages
Premier League Based on last 100 matches
Fouls / match 15.74
Yellow cards / match 2.96
Red cards / match 0.15
Penalties / match 0.22
V. Skripnik
VS
M. Bartulović
1.36
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: 44 W
Veres Rank: 49 W
Shakhtar Donetsk Rank: 74 L
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: 64 L
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: 47 W
Obolon'-Brovar Rank: 41 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Polissya Zhytomyr Rank: 62 L
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: 58 D
Kudrivka Rank: 41 W
Veres Rank: 48 W
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: 66 W
Kolos Kovalivka Rank: 55 D
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 0 - 1
1
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min) Zorya Luhansk5.98%
Draw
87.12%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv6.9%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
53.59 48.92 0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Zorya Luhansk Metalist 1925 KharkivPower Score
53.59
48.92
League Position
8
5
Global Rank
685
733
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Zorya Luhansk — Opponent-weighted form score
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Zorya Luhansk Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Zorya Luhansk
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Zorya Luhansk ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Attacking Efficiency Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.38
22.71
Defensive Efficiency Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.71
25.38
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Zorya Luhansk +0.27 Efficiency Index
vs
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv -0.27 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Zorya Luhansk
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Zorya Luhansk ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Zorya Luhansk Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Zorya Luhansk Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Zorya Luhansk
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Zorya Luhanskvs
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Zorya Luhansk Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Zorya Luhansk 0.25
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Zorya Luhansk Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Zorya Luhansk 0.03
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 0.02
Zorya Luhansk
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- Zorya Luhansk had peak pressure around 16'.
- Metalist 1925 Kharkiv started the game with stronger pressure.
Zorya Luhansk Pressure Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Zorya Luhansk reached the top pressure at 16' (75.57).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 6 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk Home
6 matches
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Away
Match Record 5
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
5
Goals 18
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
18
+13
Goal Difference
-13
Data last updated: 2026-05-10T00:03:27+00:00
STARTING XI
Zorya Luhansk Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
1 O. Saputin
44 I. Perduta
5 A. Janjić
4 G. Eskinja
47 R. Vantukh
K. Dryshliuk
#880'
77 B. Kushnirenko
I. Horbach
#1110'
9 A. Slesar
22 P. Mićin
R. Verley
#7063'
21 J. Bašić
6 D. Popara
28 P. Budkivskyi
30 D. Varakuta
27 I. Krupskyi
31 A. Shabanov
18 Y. Pavliuk
13 V. Salyuk
5 I. Kaliuzhnyi
E. Rashica
#1959'
8 S. Castillo Pérez
V. Churko
#1182'
16 J. Árevalo Chaparro
D. Antyukh
#1522'
17 I. Kogut
B. Zabergja
#2660'
45 V. Kalitvintsev
C. Mba
#9982'
98 P. Itodo
General Information
📅 Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 03:00 PM
🏆 Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 27 · Regular Season
🏟️ Stadium :
Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky
👥 Capacity :
40003
🌱 Pitch Surface :
Grass
🌤️ Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
🧑⚖️ Referees :
Klym Zabroda
Valentin Kutsev
Vitaliy Skoblya
Oleksandr Solovyan
Next Match
Zorya Luhansk
vs
Oleksandria
League: Premier League
Kickoff: Tue, 12 May - 10:00 AM
Venue: KSK Nika
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
vs
Karpaty
League: Premier League
Kickoff: Tue, 12 May - 3:00 PM
Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion
Statistics
Possession
Zorya Luhansk
51%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
49%
Top Statistics
1 Goals 1
11 Shots 9
44 Dangerous attacks 38
52 Possession 48
10 Corners 6
14 Free kicks 15
5 Yellow Cards 1
Match Overview
1 Assists 0
4 Substitutions 5
Attacking
62 Attacks 74
Defensive
2 Saves 0
Discipline
1 Offsides 0
Lineup
Zorya Luhansk Referee : Klym Zabroda
Manager ▼
V. Skripnik Coach
Starting XI ▼
1 Oleksandr Saputin Goalkeeper
4 Gabriel Eskinja Defender
5 Andrija Janjić Defender
21 Jakov Basic Defender
70Reynaldiño Verley
Midfielder63'
44 Igor Perduta Defender
47 Roman Vantukh Defender
6 Dejan Popara Midfielder
9 Artem Slesar Midfielder
11Igor Gorbach
Midfielder10'
22 Petar Micin Midfielder
77 Bogdan Kushnirenko Midfielder
8Kyrylo Dryshlyuk
Midfielder80'
28 Pylyp Budkivskyi Attacker
Substitutes ▼
11Igor Gorbach
Midfielder10'
27Domagoj Jelavic
Midfielder62'
70Reynaldiño Verley
Midfielder63'
8Kyrylo Dryshlyuk
Midfielder80'
Bench ▼
12
Mykyta Turbayevskyi Goalkeeper
31 Valeriy Kosivskyi Goalkeeper
10 Juninho Defender
23
Navin Malysh Midfielder
88 S. Bah Midfielder
17 Fedir Zadorozhnyi Attacker
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Referee : Klym Zabroda
Manager ▼
M. Bartulović Coach
Starting XI ▼
30 Danylo Varakuta Goalkeeper
13 Volodymyr Salyuk Defender
18 Yevgen Pavlyuk Defender
27 Ilya Krupskyi Defender
31 Artem Shabanov Defender
5 Ivan Kalyuzhnyi Midfielder
16 Nicolás Arévalo Midfielder
11Vyacheslav Churko
Midfielder82'
17 Igor Kogut Midfielder
15Denys Antyukh
Midfielder22'
45 Vladyslav Kalitvintsev Midfielder
26Baton Zabergja
Midfielder60'
8 Sebastian Castillo Attacker
19Ermir Rashica
Midfielder59'
98 Peter Mandela Itodo Attacker
99Christian Mba
Attacker82'
Substitutes ▼
15Denys Antyukh
Midfielder22'
19Ermir Rashica
Midfielder59'
26Baton Zabergja
Midfielder60'
11Vyacheslav Churko
Midfielder82'
99Christian Mba
Attacker82'
Bench ▼
23 Yaroslav Protsenko Goalkeeper
24
Oleksandr Martynyuk Defender
37
Valeriy Dubko Defender
7
Ari Moura Midfielder
14
Ramik Gadzhyev Midfielder
25
Ivan Lytvynenko Midfielder
77 Cauan Matteo Baptistella Midfielder
Events
2ND-HALF
Pylyp Budkivskyi
6th Yellowcard
90+3'
Reynaldiño Verley
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
90+1'
Dejan Popara
5th Yellowcard
89'
Kyrylo Dryshlyuk
4th Yellowcard
85'
82'
Vyacheslav Churko → Nicolás Arévalo
8th Substitution
82'
Christian Mba → Peter Mandela Itodo
9th Substitution
Kyrylo Dryshlyuk → Bogdan Kushnirenko
7th Substitution
80'
Petar Micin
3rd Yellowcard
80'
Reynaldiño Verley → Jakov Basic
6th Substitution
63'
Domagoj Jelavic → Igor Gorbach
5th Substitution
62'
60'
Baton Zabergja → Vladyslav Kalitvintsev
4th Substitution
59'
Ermir Rashica → Sebastian Castillo
3rd Substitution
58'
Sebastian Castillo
2nd Yellowcard
Gabriel Eskinja
1st Yellowcard
55'
1ST-HALF
22'
Denys Antyukh → Igor Kogut
2nd Substitution
Igor Gorbach → Artem Slesar
1st Substitution
10'
Viktor Skripnik
7th Yellowcard
4'
1'
Peter Mandela Itodo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
CONCLUSION
The 1-1 draw between Zorya Luhansk and Metalist 1925 Kharkiv epitomizes a balanced encounter where resilience trumped dominance. Zorya, with superior status and slight possession edge, recovered from a halftime deficit but couldn't capitalize fully, reflecting their moderate deviation. Metalist's stout defense preserved the point, aligning with expectations in a low-scoring affair. This result maintains Zorya's competitive standing without inflating their record, while Metalist gains momentum from road resilience. Both sides demonstrated tactical maturity, setting up intriguing future fixtures in the league.
Zorya Luhansk vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
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Match Commentary