Zenit vs Spartak Moskva Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Premier League, Russia

Gazprom Arena Sat, 14 Mar - 1:00 PM

Premier League

Zenit ZSP

Spartak Moskva Spartak Moskva

Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 1:00 PM

Jhon Durán - 81' (P)

Aleksandr Sobolev - 45' (P)

CONTEXT

The match between Zenit and Spartak Moskva has officially finished, with Zenit securing a comfortable 2-0 victory. The hosts established their advantage early, taking a 1-0 lead into halftime before doubling their tally in the second half. Going into the fixture, Zenit was widely regarded as the stronger team. Although the specific pre-match market probabilities were registered at zero across the board, Zenit produced a significant performance deviation to secure the home win. Ultimately, the final result was fully aligned with the broader market expectations backing the home side. Stylistically, the game presented an interesting contrast. Spartak Moskva actually dictated the tempo with the ball, holding 55 percent possession compared to Zenit's 45 percent. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this matchup, meaning we cannot assess whether the outcome strictly aligned with the underlying chance quality. However, Zenit's attacking metrics showed an efficiency shift that remained completely in line with the final result, highlighting their clinical edge. Finally, the match was a disciplined affair with zero red cards issued, ensuring that dismissals did not impact the tactical flow or the game's ultimate conclusion.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Zenit showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

S. Karasev

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Lunev

1st Assistant

A. Ermilov

2nd Assistant

I. Tanashev

4th Official

S. Semak

J. Carcedo Mardones

2.31

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.92

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

19 - 16 - 10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Zenit

Draw

Spartak Moskva

Team Power Ranking

78.89

70.79

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Zenit

Spartak Moskva

Power Score

78.89

70.79

League Position

Global Rank

163

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Zenit — Opponent-weighted form score

Spartak Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Zenit Spartak Moskva

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Zenit

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Spartak Moskva

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Zenit ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Spartak Moskva

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

28.33

21.55

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

21.55

28.33

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Zenit +0.78 Efficiency Index

Spartak Moskva -0.78 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Zenit

Spartak Moskva

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Zenit ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Spartak Moskva

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Zenit Spartak Moskva

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

2.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Zenit Spartak Moskva

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 2.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Zenit

Spartak Moskva

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Zenit ZSP Home

11 matches

Spartak Moskva Spartak Moskva Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

+11

Goal Difference

-11

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T00:45:21+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

Match Formation 4-1-4-1

16 D. Adamov

31 G. Mantuan

6 V. Drkušić

33 M. Mota Filho

3 (C) D. dos Santos Justino de Melo

5 W. Barrios Terán

8 M. Valle da Silva

10 M. Glushenkov

20 P. Silva dos Santos

14 J. dos Santos Rosa

7 A. Sobolev

98 A. Maximenko

27 I. Dmitriev

68 R. Litvinov

3 C. Wooh

97 D. Denisov

18 N. Umyarov

10 J. Costa Martins

47 (C) R. Zobnin

35 C. Martins Pereira

7 P. Solari

5 E. Barco

General Information

Date & Time :

Mar 14, 2026, 01:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Premier League, Russia

Stadium :

Gazprom Arena

Capacity :

68000

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Aleksey Lunev

Aleksey Ermilov

Inal Tanashev

Sergey Karasev

Statistics

Possession

ZSP

47%

Spartak Moskva

53%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0

3 Big Chances Created 1

3 Shots 7

35 Dangerous attacks 57

45 Possession 55

2 Corners 5

17 Free kicks 9

2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5

5 Goal Attempts 8

78 Ball Safe 67

10 Goal Kicks 5

40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 48

15 Throwins 23

4 Injuries 2

4 Successful Dribbles 10

10 Dribble Attempts 21

9 Successful Headers 10

4 Penalties 0

0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

85 Attacks 95

1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

79 Successful Passes Percentage 83

348 Passes 426

50 Long Passes 27

46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33

23 Successful Long Passes 9

274 Successful Passes 352

Defensive

22 Tackles 13

14 Interceptions 6

0 Saves 2

Build-up

10 Total Crosses 20

1 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

7 Fouls 20

Lineup

Referee : Sergey Karasev

Manager ▼

S. Semak Coach

Starting XI ▼

Denis Adamov Goalkeeper

6.67

Douglas Santos (C) Defender

7.29

Vanja Drkusic Defender

6.85

Gustavo Mantuan Defender

6.86

Daniil Kondakov

Midfielder77'

6.37

Nino Defender

7.44

Wilmar Barrios Midfielder

6.94

Wendel Midfielder

6.98

Román Vega

Defender87'

Maksim Glushenkov Midfielder

6.5

Luiz Henrique

Attacker46'

6.7

Jhon Jhon Midfielder

6.66

Igor Diveev

Defender46'

6.55

Pedro Midfielder

7.96

Aleksandr Sobolev Attacker

7.36

Jhon Durán

Attacker76'

6.99

Substitutes ▼

Luiz Henrique

Attacker46'

6.7

Igor Diveev

Defender46'

6.55

Jhon Durán

Attacker76'

6.99

Daniil Kondakov

Midfielder77'

6.37

Román Vega

Defender87'

Bench ▼

Evgeniy Latyshonok Goalkeeper

Bogdan Moskvichev Goalkeeper

Yuriy Gorshkov Defender

Vyacheslav Karavaev Defender

Nuraly Alip Defender

Andrey Mostovoy Midfielder

Aleksandr Erokhin Midfielder

Referee : Sergey Karasev