Zenit vs Sochi Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Gazprom Arena Sun, 10 May - 12:00 PM
Premier League
Zenit ZSP
2 Winner 1
Sochi Sochi
Full Time Sun, 10 May 12:00 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
Aleksandr Erokhin - 84'
Luiz Henrique - 59'
Goal
|
Goal
Zakhar Fedorov - 31'

CONTEXT

Zenit secured a 2-1 victory over Sochi at home, overturning a 0-1 halftime deficit. Despite dominating possession with 67% to Sochi's 33%, Zenit trailed at the break after conceding early. The second half saw Zenit mount a comeback, scoring twice to claim the win as the stronger team. No red cards were issued, maintaining a full complement of players throughout. This result reflects Zenit's superior control and ability to adjust post-halftime, converting pressure into goals without relying on set-piece dominance or defensive lapses from opponents. Structural analysis highlights a significant 100% deviation favoring Zenit, aligning with their pre-designated strength. Efficiency remained in line with expectations, though xG metrics were unavailable for deeper insight. The match proceeded without major disruptions, underscoring Zenit's tactical resilience.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Zenit exhibited a significant 100% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment was fully achieved.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable from missing metrics.
  • Event impact: No notable event impacts influenced the match outcome.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards resulted in no distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. Shafeev

Russia 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Gavrilin

1st Assistant

Russia

D. Petrov

2nd Assistant

Russia

S. Fedotov

4th Official

Russia

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 24.63
Yellow cards / match 3.49
Red cards / match 0.22
Penalties / match 0.61
Zenit S. Semak
S. Semak
VS
Sochi I. Osinkin
I. Osinkin
2.46
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
CSKA Moskva Rank: 70 W
Akhmat Grozny Rank: 59 W
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: 71 D
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: 57 W
Krasnodar Rank: 78 D
Krylya Sovetov Rank: 57 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Orenburg Rank: 54 W
Dinamo Moskva Rank: 69 L
Krylya Sovetov Rank: 56 W
Rostov Rank: 60 W
CSKA Moskva Rank: 69 W
Rubin Kazan Rank: 64 L
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 2 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Zenit
0%
Draw
0%
Away Sochi
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
81.16
46.65
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Zenit
Sochi
Power Score
81.16
46.65
League Position
1
16
Global Rank
54
720

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Zenit — Opponent-weighted form score
Sochi — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Zenit Sochi

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Zenit

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sochi

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Zenit ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sochi
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.78
25.15
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.15
39.78
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Zenit +1.68 Efficiency Index
vs
Sochi -1.68 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Zenit
Sochi
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Zenit ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sochi
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Zenit Sochi
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Zenit Sochi
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Zenit
Sochi
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Zenit
vs
Sochi
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Zenit Sochi
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Zenit 0.32
Sochi 0.27
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Zenit Sochi
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Zenit 0.04
Sochi 0.03
Zenit
Sochi
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ZSP had peak pressure around 70'.
  • ZSP started the game with stronger pressure.
ZSP Pressure Sochi Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ZSP reached the top pressure at 70' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Zenit ZSP Home
11 matches
Sochi Sochi Away
Match Record
8
Wins
1
2
Draws
2
1
Losses
8
Goals
26
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
26
+20
Goal Difference
-20

Data last updated: 2026-05-11T00:01:51+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
D. Adamov
Russia
16 D. Adamov
G. Mantuan
Brazil
31 G. Mantuan
I. Diveev
Russia
78 I. Diveev
M. Mota Filho
Brazil
33 M. Mota Filho
D. dos Santos Justino de Melo
Brazil
3 D. dos Santos Justino de Melo
W. Barrios Terán
Substitution
Colombia
5 W. Barrios Terán
M. Valle da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
8 M. Valle da Silva
L. Rosa da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
11 L. Rosa da Silva
M. Glushenkov
Substitution
Russia
10 M. Glushenkov
P. Silva dos Santos
Substitution
Brazil
20 P. Silva dos Santos
A. Sobolev
Russia
7 A. Sobolev
Pitch
A. Degtev
Russia
35 A. Degtev
V. Litvinov
Russia
4 V. Litvinov
M. Alves Santos
Brazil
33 M. Alves Santos
A. Soldatenkov
Russia
3 A. Soldatenkov
A. Makarchuk
Russia
17 A. Makarchuk
D. Vasilev
Substitution
Russia
20 D. Vasilev
K. Kravtsov
Russia
14 K. Kravtsov
K. Zaika
Substitution
Russia
27 K. Zaika
A. Kovalenko
Substitution
Russia
19 A. Kovalenko
Z. Fedorov
Substitution
Russia
9 Z. Fedorov
M. Mukhin
Substitution
Russia
16 M. Mukhin

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 12:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Gazprom Arena
Capacity :
68000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Maksim Gavrilin
Denis Petrov
Sergey Fedotov
Rafael Shafeev

Statistics

Possession
ZSP
63%
Sochi
37%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
7 Big Chances Created 0
3 Shots 0
73 Dangerous attacks 26
67 Possession 33
10 Corners 3
14 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
31 Throwins 11
16 Dribble Attempts 11
2 Hit Woodwork 0
3 Goal Kicks 20
7 Successful Dribbles 5
1 Penalties 0
19 Successful Headers 22
1 Assists 1
77 Ball Safe 88
5 Substitutions 5
18 Goal Attempts 5

Attacking

111 Attacks 63
5 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

57 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37
35 Successful Long Passes 23
550 Passes 280
463 Successful Passes 195
61 Long Passes 62
84 Successful Passes Percentage 70

Defensive

49 Duels Won 53
3 Interceptions 8
3 Saves 5
12 Tackles 19

Build-up

11 Accurate Crosses 4
34 Total Crosses 10

Discipline

9 Fouls 15
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Rafael Shafeev

Starting XI ▼

16
Denis Adamov
Denis Adamov Goalkeeper
3
Douglas Santos
Douglas Santos Defender
31
Gustavo Mantuan
Gustavo Mantuan Defender
33
Nino
Nino Defender
78
Igor Diveev
Igor Diveev Defender
5
Wilmar Barrios
Wilmar Barrios Midfielder
17
Andrey Mostovoy
Andrey Mostovoy
Midfielder66'
8
Wendel
Wendel Midfielder
61
Daniil Kondakov
Daniil Kondakov
Midfielder76'
10
Maksim Glushenkov
Maksim Glushenkov Midfielder
6
Vanja Drkusic
Vanja Drkusic
Defender88'
11
Luiz Henrique
Luiz Henrique Midfielder
21
Aleksandr Erokhin
Aleksandr Erokhin
Midfielder76'
20
Pedro
Pedro Midfielder
66
Román Vega
Román Vega
Defender66'
7
Aleksandr Sobolev
Aleksandr Sobolev Attacker
Referee : Rafael Shafeev

Starting XI ▼

35
Aleksandr Degtev
Aleksandr Degtev Goalkeeper
3
A. Soldatenkov
A. Soldatenkov Defender
4
Vyacheslav Litvinov
Vyacheslav Litvinov Defender
33
Marcelo Alves
Marcelo Alves Defender
14
Kirill Kravtsov
Kirill Kravtsov Midfielder
17
Artem Makarchuk
Artem Makarchuk Midfielder
20
Dmitriy Vasiljev
Dmitriy Vasiljev Midfielder
10
Martin Kramaric
Martin Kramaric
Midfielder78'
27
Kirill Zaika
Kirill Zaika Midfielder
28
Ruslan Magal
Ruslan Magal
Defender89'
9
Zakhar Fedorov
Zakhar Fedorov Attacker
11
Pavel Meleshin
Pavel Meleshin
Attacker68'
16
Maksim Mukhin
Maksim Mukhin Attacker
7
Anton Zinkovskiy
Anton Zinkovskiy
Midfielder78'
19
A. Kovalenko
A. Kovalenko Attacker
18
Artem Korneev
Artem Korneev
Midfielder89'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Aleksandr Erokhin
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
90+1'
89'
Event
Ruslan Magal → Kirill Zaika
10th Substitution
89'
Event
Artem Korneev → A. Kovalenko
9th Substitution
Event
Vanja Drkusic → Maksim Glushenkov
8th Substitution
88'
87'
Event
Kirill Zaika
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Aleksandr Erokhin
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
84'
78'
Event
Anton Zinkovskiy → Maksim Mukhin
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Martin Kramaric → Dmitriy Vasiljev
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Dmitriy Vasiljev
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Aleksandr Erokhin → Luiz Henrique
4th Substitution
76'
Event
Daniil Kondakov → Wendel
5th Substitution
76'
68'
Event
Pavel Meleshin → Zakhar Fedorov
3rd Substitution
Event
Román Vega → Pedro
2nd Substitution
66'
Event
Andrey Mostovoy → Wilmar Barrios
1st Substitution
66'
Event
Luiz Henrique
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
59'
1ST-HALF
31'
Event
Zakhar Fedorov
Header / 1st Goal
21'
Event
Vyacheslav Litvinov
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Luiz Henrique
Woodwork
13'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Andrey Mostovoy takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Andrey Mostovoy takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Andrey Mostovoy takes a right-footed shot but misses.
89
Update Update
Ruslan Magal replaces Kirill Zaika.
89
Update Update
Artem Korneev comes on for Aleksandr Kovalenko.
88
Update Update
Vanja Drkusic is on, and Maksim Glushenkov is off.
84
Attempt Attempt
Shot! Aleksandr Erokhin scores with a right-footed shot.
84
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal! Aleksandr Erokhin takes a right-footed shot and scores.
84
Attempt Attempt
Andrey Mostovoy takes a right-footed shot but misses.
79
Attempt Attempt
Pavel Meleshin takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
78
Substitution Substitution
Anton Zinkovskiy is substituted on for Maksim Mukhin.
78
Update Update
Martin Kramaric is on, and Dmitri Vasiljev is off.
76
Update Update
Aleksandr Erokhin replaces Luiz Henrique Andre Rosa da Silva.
76
Update Update
Daniil Kondakov comes on for Marcus Wendel Valle da Silva.
68
Update Update
Pavel Meleshin comes on for Zakhar Fedorov.
67
Attempt Attempt
Andrey Mostovoy's right-footed shot is saved.
66
Update Update
Andrey Mostovoy comes on for Wilmar Enrique Barrios Teheran.
66
Update Update
Roman Vega replaces Pedro Henrique Silva dos Santos.
64
Attempt Attempt
Alexander Sobolev takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
62
Attempt Attempt
Maksim Glushenkov takes a left-footed shot but misses.
59
Attempt Attempt
Luiz Henrique Andre Rosa da Silva takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
56
Attempt Attempt
Alexander Sobolev takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
56
Attempt Attempt
Luiz Henrique Andre Rosa da Silva takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
53
Attempt Attempt
Maksim Glushenkov takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Marcus Wendel Valle da Silva takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Alexander Sobolev attempts a header but misses the shot.
45
Attempt Attempt
Alexander Sobolev attempts a header but misses the shot.
45
Attempt Attempt
Alexander Sobolev attempts a header but misses the shot.
37
Attempt Attempt
Maksim Glushenkov takes a left-footed shot but misses.
37
Attempt Attempt
Alexander Sobolev attempts a header but misses the shot.
34
Attempt Attempt
Kirill Kravtsov takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
31
Update Update
Zakhar Fedorov scores with a header.
25
Attempt Attempt
Aleksandr Soldatenkov attempts a header but misses the shot.
23
Attempt Attempt
Maksim Mukhin takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
20
Attempt Attempt
Alexander Sobolev takes a right-footed shot but misses.
17
Attempt Attempt
Maksim Glushenkov takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
16
Attempt Attempt
Kirill Kravtsov takes a right-footed shot but misses.
13
Attempt Attempt
Luiz Henrique Andre Rosa da Silva takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
12
Attempt Attempt
Maksim Glushenkov takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
12
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Henrique Silva dos Santos takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.

CONCLUSION

Zenit's 2-1 win over Sochi validates their status as the stronger side, demonstrated through 67% possession and a decisive second-half turnaround from a 0-1 halftime score. The significant structural deviation of 100% underscores their dominance, while market alignment confirms pre-match assessments. Efficiency stayed consistent, free from red card influences or major events. This performance highlights effective adjustments, converting sustained pressure into victory without xG data to quantify chance quality. Sochi's resilience faded against Zenit's control, yielding a factual outcome aligned with team hierarchies.

Zenit vs Sochi preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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