Zenit vs Krylya Sovetov Expert Preview & Team Analysis

2025/2026 Premier League, Russia

Gazprom Arena Sat, 4 Apr - 12:15 PM

Premier League

Zenit ZSP

Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov

Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 12:15 PM

Round 23 Regular Season

Aleksandr Sobolev - 55'

Jhon Jhon - 49'

S. Babkin - 75'

CONTEXT

The match is officially finished, with Zenit defeating Krylya Sovetov 2-1 at full-time. The game was tightly contested early on, as both teams entered the half-time break locked in a scoreless draw before the offenses finally broke through in the second period. Heading into the fixture, pre-match market probabilities were entirely flat, standing at zero for a home win, draw, and away win. Despite this lack of preliminary market data, Zenit's ultimate victory was considered mathematically market aligned. Zenit also stood out as the primary deviation team, registering a significant deviation level from baseline expectations. On the pitch, Zenit controlled a slight majority of the play, finishing with 53% possession compared to Krylya Sovetov's 47%. Expected goals (xG) metrics were unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to determine if the final scoreline was strictly consistent with xG. However, the overall efficiency shift for the match remained exactly in line with normal parameters. Finally, it was a disciplined affair; the game concluded without any red cards being issued, ensuring neither side had to navigate a numerical disadvantage.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Zenit showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

R. Shafeev

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Khatuev

1st Assistant

D. Petrov

2nd Assistant

I. Kaplenkov

4th Official

S. Semak

M. Adiev

2.42

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

0.75

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

25 - 7 - 5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Zenit

Draw

Krylya Sovetov

Team Power Ranking

80.15

54.82

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Zenit

Krylya Sovetov

Power Score

80.15

54.82

League Position

Global Rank

621

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Zenit — Opponent-weighted form score

Krylya Sovetov — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Zenit Krylya Sovetov

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Zenit

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Krylya Sovetov

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Zenit ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Krylya Sovetov

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

35.19

30.32

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

30.32

35.19

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Zenit +0.54 Efficiency Index

Krylya Sovetov -0.54 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Zenit

Krylya Sovetov

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Zenit ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Krylya Sovetov

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Zenit Krylya Sovetov

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Zenit Krylya Sovetov

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Zenit

Krylya Sovetov

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Zenit

Krylya Sovetov

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Zenit Krylya Sovetov

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Zenit Krylya Sovetov

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Zenit

Krylya Sovetov

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 37 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Zenit ZSP Home

37 matches

Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

+43

Goal Difference

-43

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:01:59+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

Match Formation 3-4-3

16 D. Adamov

15 V. Karavaev

78 I. Diveev

33 M. Mota Filho

66 R. Vega

5 W. Barrios Terán

4 Y. Gorshkov

10 M. Glushenkov

8 M. Valle da Silva

14 J. dos Santos Rosa

7 A. Sobolev

30 S. Pesyakov

47 S. Bozhin

5 A. Oroz

23 N. Chernov

2 K. Pechenin

6 S. Babkin

8 M. Vityugov

15 N. Rasskazov

11 A. Rahmanović

99 G. Charles

19 I. Oleynikov

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 04, 2026, 12:15 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 23 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Gazprom Arena

Capacity :

68000

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Adlan Khatuev

Denis Petrov

Igor Kaplenkov

Rafael Shafeev

Statistics

Possession

ZSP

54%

Krylya Sovetov

46%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1

1 Big Chances Created 1

6 Shots 4

53 Dangerous attacks 45

53 Possession 47

6 Corners 3

12 Free kicks 12

2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

9 Successful Dribbles 3

69 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33

14 Successful Headers 10

22 Throwins 21

13 Dribble Attempts 9

6 Goal Kicks 13

2 Assists 0

66 Ball Safe 78

5 Substitutions 5

2 Injuries 1

12 Goal Attempts 8

Attacking

90 Attacks 86

0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

84 Successful Passes Percentage 84

480 Passes 432

51 Long Passes 42

404 Successful Passes 363

31 Successful Long Passes 15

61 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36

Defensive

5 Interceptions 15

15 Tackles 7

4 Saves 3

47 Duels Won 31

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 15

4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

14 Fouls 10

0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Rafael Shafeev

Manager ▼

S. Semak Coach

Starting XI ▼

Denis Adamov Goalkeeper

Vyacheslav Karavaev Defender

Vanja Drkusic

Defender78'

Nino Defender

Román Vega Defender

Igor Diveev Defender

Yuriy Gorshkov Midfielder

Daniil Kondakov

Midfielder70'

Wilmar Barrios Midfielder

Douglas Santos

Defender62'

Wendel Midfielder

Pedro

Attacker70'

Maksim Glushenkov Midfielder

Luiz Henrique

Attacker62'

Jhon Jhon Midfielder

Aleksandr Sobolev Attacker

Substitutes ▼

Luiz Henrique

Attacker62'

Douglas Santos

Defender62'

Daniil Kondakov

Midfielder70'

Pedro

Attacker70'

Vanja Drkusic

Defender78'

Bench ▼

Evgeniy Latyshonok Goalkeeper

Bogdan Moskvichev Goalkeeper

Arsen Adamov Defender

Nuraly Alip Defender

Andrey Mostovoy Midfielder

Yaroslav Mikhailov Midfielder

Aleksandr Erokhin Midfielder

Referee : Rafael Shafeev