Zenit vs Krasnodar Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Premier League, Russia

Gazprom Arena Sun, 12 Apr - 4:30 PM

Premier League

Zenit ZSP

1 – 1

Krasnodar KRA

Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 4:30 PM

Round 24 Regular Season

Wendel - 27'

Lucas Olaza - 69'

Pedro 78'

CONTEXT

The match between Zenit and Krasnodar is finished, ending in a 1-1 draw. Zenit led 1-0 at half-time but were pegged back in the second period, with the visitors claiming a share of the points. The result showed significant deviation from pre-match expectations, focused on Zenit. Although Zenit entered as the stronger team, they ultimately settled for a draw rather than pushing for a win. Overall the outcome aligned with the pre-match projection. No expected goals data is available, but Krasnodar controlled more of the ball with 58 percent possession to Zenit’s 42 percent. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations despite the final score. Two red cards for Zenit and none for Krasnodar created a clear red-card distortion that shaped the second half, limiting Zenit’s ability to build on their early advantage and forcing them into a more defensive posture. This event proved decisive in preventing either side from securing all three points.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Zenit showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

S. Karasev

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Lunev

1st Assistant

D. Safjan

2nd Assistant

N. Voloshin

4th Official

S. Semak

M. Musaev

2.58

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

2.42

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

18 - 7 - 4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Zenit

Draw

Krasnodar

Team Power Ranking

43.63

39.33

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Zenit

Krasnodar

Power Score

43.63

39.33

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Zenit — Opponent-weighted form score

Krasnodar — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Zenit Krasnodar

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Zenit

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Krasnodar

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Zenit ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Krasnodar

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

16.79

20.95

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

20.95

16.79

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Zenit -0.48 Efficiency Index

Krasnodar +0.48 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Zenit

Krasnodar

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Zenit ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Krasnodar

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Zenit Krasnodar

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Zenit Krasnodar

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Zenit

Krasnodar

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Zenit

Krasnodar

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Zenit Krasnodar

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Zenit Krasnodar

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Zenit

Krasnodar

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

KRA had peak pressure around 84'.
ZSP started the game with stronger pressure.

ZSP Pressure KRA Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: KRA reached the top pressure at 84' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 29 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Zenit ZSP Home

29 matches

Krasnodar KRA Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

+29

Goal Difference

-29

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:09:10+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

16 D. Adamov

6 V. Drkušić

78 I. Diveev

33 M. Mota Filho

3 D. dos Santos Justino de Melo

5 W. Barrios Terán

11 L. Rosa da Silva

10 M. Glushenkov

8 M. Valle da Silva

14 J. dos Santos Rosa

7 A. Sobolev

1 S. Agkatsev

15 L. Olaza Catrofe

4 D. Costa Barbosa

3 V. Tormena de Farias

20 G. González Apud

66 D. Soares Gomes

6 K. Gonçalves Pereira de Pina

11 J. Fortes Bachiessa

10 E. Spertsyan

88 N. Krivtsov

9 J. Córdoba Copete

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 12, 2026, 04:30 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 24 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Gazprom Arena

Capacity :

68000

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Sergey Karasev

Aleksey Lunev

Dmitri Safjan

Nikolay Voloshin

Statistics

Possession

ZSP

44%

KRA

56%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1

2 Shots 3

41 Dangerous attacks 43

42 Possession 58

0 Corners 5

20 Free kicks 17

2 Yellow Cards 2

1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

23 Throwins 27

12 Successful Headers 20

33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 63

7 Successful Dribbles 5

8 Goal Kicks 4

21 Dribble Attempts 8

1 Assists 1

0 Hit Woodwork 1

65 Ball Safe 88

3 Goal Attempts 9

0 Injuries 2

3 Substitutions 3

Attacking

85 Attacks 89

Possession

243 Successful Passes 355

73 Successful Passes Percentage 78

331 Passes 453

66 Long Passes 60

28 Successful Long Passes 26

42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43

Defensive

4 Interceptions 6

2 Saves 1

15 Tackles 19

Build-up

8 Total Crosses 14

0 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

16 Fouls 20

1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Sergey Karasev

Manager ▼

S. Semak Coach

Starting XI ▼

Denis Adamov Goalkeeper

Douglas Santos Defender

Nuraly Alip

Defender90+2'

Vanja Drkusic Defender

Nino Defender

Igor Diveev Defender

Wilmar Barrios Midfielder

Wendel Midfielder

Maksim Glushenkov Midfielder

Román Vega

Defender82'

Luiz Henrique Midfielder

Jhon Jhon Midfielder

Pedro

Attacker71'

Aleksandr Sobolev Attacker

Substitutes ▼

Pedro

Attacker71'

Román Vega

Defender82'

Nuraly Alip

Defender90+2'

Bench ▼

Evgeniy Latyshonok Goalkeeper

Bogdan Moskvichev Goalkeeper

Yuriy Gorshkov Defender

Vyacheslav Karavaev Defender

Arsen Adamov Defender

Andrey Mostovoy Midfielder

Aleksandr Erokhin Midfielder

Daniil Kondakov Midfielder

Jhon Durán Attacker

Referee : Sergey Karasev