Zenit vs Akhmat Grozny Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Gazprom Arena Sun, 26 Apr - 4:30 PM
Premier League
Zenit ZSP
2 Winner 0
Akhmat Grozny AKH
Full Time Sun, 26 Apr 4:30 PM
Round 27 Regular Season
Luiz Henrique - 11'
Aleksandr Sobolev - 8'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Zenit St. Petersburg delivered a clinical performance to defeat Akhmat Grozny 2-0, securing all their goals in a dominant first half that ended 2-0. With 63% possession, Zenit controlled the tempo from the outset, pressing high and restricting Akhmat to minimal threats. The visitors, holding just 37% of the ball, struggled to penetrate a resolute defense, managing few clear opportunities. No red cards disrupted proceedings, allowing the game to flow smoothly into a second half where Zenit managed the contest professionally without further scoring. As the pre-designated stronger side, Zenit's victory highlighted a significant structural deviation of 100% in their favor, while efficiency remained in line with projections. This result underscores their tactical discipline and reinforces their competitive edge in the league standings.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match exhibited a significant 100% structural deviation favoring Zenit.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be determined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome perfectly aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations remained unevaluated owing to missing metrics.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or major events influenced the result.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards produced no distortion in the scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

E. Bulanov

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Safjan

1st Assistant

D. Bereznov

2nd Assistant

A. Frolov

4th Official

Zenit S. Semak
S. Semak
VS
Akhmat Grozny S. Cherchesov
S. Cherchesov
2.36
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.14
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: D
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: W
Krasnodar Rank: D
Krylya Sovetov Rank: W
Dinamo Moskva Rank: W
Spartak Moskva Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: D
Spartak Moskva Rank: L
Krylya Sovetov Rank: D
Krasnodar Rank: L
Rostov Rank: W
Akron Rank: D
18
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
18 - 11 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Zenit
0%
Draw
0%
Away Akhmat Grozny
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
42.32
18.54
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Zenit
Akhmat Grozny
Power Score
42.32
18.54
League Position
2
9
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Zenit — Opponent-weighted form score
Akhmat Grozny — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Zenit Akhmat Grozny

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Zenit

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Akhmat Grozny

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Zenit ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Akhmat Grozny
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.49
40.68
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
40.68
23.49
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Zenit -1.98 Efficiency Index
vs
Akhmat Grozny +1.98 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Zenit
Akhmat Grozny
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Zenit ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Akhmat Grozny
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Zenit Akhmat Grozny
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Zenit Akhmat Grozny
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Zenit
Akhmat Grozny
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Zenit
vs
Akhmat Grozny
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Zenit Akhmat Grozny
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Zenit 0.21
Akhmat Grozny 0.32
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Zenit Akhmat Grozny
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Zenit 0.00
Akhmat Grozny 0.04
Zenit
Akhmat Grozny
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • AKH had peak pressure around 81'.
  • ZSP started the game with stronger pressure.
ZSP Pressure AKH Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: AKH reached the top pressure at 81' (91.50).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 37 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Zenit ZSP Home
37 matches
Akhmat Grozny AKH Away
Match Record
18
Wins
8
11
Draws
11
8
Losses
18
Goals
62
Goals Scored
31
31
Goals Conceded
62
+31
Goal Difference
-31

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:07:31+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Adamov
Russia
16 D. Adamov
V. Karavaev
Russia
15 V. Karavaev
I. Diveev
Russia
78 I. Diveev
M. Mota Filho
Brazil
33 M. Mota Filho
D. dos Santos Justino de Melo
Brazil
3 D. dos Santos Justino de Melo
W. Barrios Terán
Colombia
5 W. Barrios Terán
M. Valle da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
8 M. Valle da Silva
L. Rosa da Silva
Brazil
11 L. Rosa da Silva
D. Kondakov
Substitution
61 D. Kondakov
P. Silva dos Santos
Substitution
Brazil
20 P. Silva dos Santos
A. Sobolev
Substitution
Russia
7 A. Sobolev
Pitch
V. Uljanov
Substitution
Russia
1 V. Uljanov
M. Bogosavac
Serbia
8 M. Bogosavac
K. Cake
Albania
5 K. Cake
T. Ibishev
Russia
4 T. Ibishev
M. Sidorov
Russia
81 M. Sidorov
I. Silva Lima
Brazil
11 I. Silva Lima
E. dos Santos Cacintura
Substitution
Angola
17 E. dos Santos Cacintura
L. Sadulaev
Substitution
Russia
7 L. Sadulaev
S. Pryakhin
Russia
19 S. Pryakhin
M. Samorodov
Substitution
Kazakhstan
20 M. Samorodov
G. Melkadze
Substitution
Russia
77 G. Melkadze

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 26, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 27 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Gazprom Arena
Capacity :
68000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Evgeni Bulanov
Dmitri Safjan
Denis Bereznov
Anton Frolov

Statistics

Possession
ZSP
60%
AKH
40%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 0
3 Shots 2
56 Dangerous attacks 41
63 Possession 37
5 Corners 5
17 Free kicks 12
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

104 Ball Safe 70
6 Goal Attempts 6
4 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 2
2 Assists 0
19 Throwins 20
16 Successful Headers 16
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 35
6 Successful Dribbles 8
15 Dribble Attempts 23
9 Goal Kicks 6

Attacking

125 Attacks 77

Possession

87 Successful Passes Percentage 84
462 Successful Passes 256
533 Passes 306
60 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36
43 Long Passes 36
26 Successful Long Passes 13

Defensive

2 Saves 1
20 Tackles 17
2 Interceptions 19
59 Duels Won 49

Build-up

8 Accurate Crosses 5
21 Total Crosses 18

Discipline

11 Fouls 16
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Evgeni Bulanov

Starting XI ▼

16
Denis Adamov
Denis Adamov Goalkeeper
7.03
3
Douglas Santos
Douglas Santos Defender
7.04
15
Vyacheslav Karavaev
Vyacheslav Karavaev Defender
7.15
33
Nino
Nino Defender
7.07
78
Igor Diveev
Igor Diveev Defender
7.2
5
Wilmar Barrios
Wilmar Barrios Midfielder
6.96
8
Wendel
Wendel Midfielder
7.09
14
Jhon Jhon
Jhon Jhon
Midfielder73'
6.91
11
Luiz Henrique
Luiz Henrique Midfielder
7.01
20
Pedro
Pedro Midfielder
6.9
6
Vanja Drkusic
Vanja Drkusic
Defender82'
6.76
61
Daniil Kondakov
Daniil Kondakov Midfielder
6.55
21
Aleksandr Erokhin
Aleksandr Erokhin
Midfielder82'
6.61
7
Aleksandr Sobolev
Aleksandr Sobolev Attacker
6.96
9
Jhon Durán
Jhon Durán
Attacker73'
6.62
Referee : Evgeni Bulanov

Starting XI ▼

1
Vadim Ulyanov
Vadim Ulyanov Goalkeeper
6.89
72
Y. Magomedov
Y. Magomedov
Goalkeeper23'
6.68
4
Turpal-Ali Ibishev
Turpal-Ali Ibishev Defender
6.63
5
Klisman Cake
Klisman Cake Defender
6.7
8
Miroslav Bogosavac
Miroslav Bogosavac Defender
6.71
81
Maksim Sidorov
Maksim Sidorov Defender
6.66
7
Lechi Sadulaev
Lechi Sadulaev Midfielder
6.81
9
Brian Mansilla
Brian Mansilla
Attacker61'
6.77
11
Ismael Silva
Ismael Silva Midfielder
6.92
17
Egas Cacintura
Egas Cacintura Midfielder
6.93
37
P. Gadio
P. Gadio
Midfielder67'
6.57
19
S. Pryakhin
S. Pryakhin Midfielder
6.7
20
Maksim Samorodov
Maksim Samorodov Midfielder
6.99
23
Galymzhan Kenzhebek
Galymzhan Kenzhebek
Midfielder61'
6.48
77
Georgiy Melkadze
Georgiy Melkadze Attacker
6.87
10
Rifat Zhemaletdinov
Rifat Zhemaletdinov
Midfielder68'
6.55

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Vanja Drkusic → Pedro
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Aleksandr Erokhin → Daniil Kondakov
9th Substitution
82'
Event
Jhon Durán → Aleksandr Sobolev
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Jhon Jhon → Wendel
7th Substitution
73'
68'
Event
Rifat Zhemaletdinov → Georgiy Melkadze
5th Substitution
67'
Event
P. Gadio → Egas Cacintura
4th Substitution
61'
Event
Galymzhan Kenzhebek → Maksim Samorodov
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Brian Mansilla → Lechi Sadulaev
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
34'
Event
Turpal-Ali Ibishev
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
23'
Event
Y. Magomedov → Vadim Ulyanov
1st Substitution
Event
Luiz Henrique
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
11'
Event
Aleksandr Sobolev
Header / 1st Goal
8'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Zenit exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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