Zagłębie Lubin vs Pogoń Szczecin Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Zagłębia Lubin Fri, 15 May - 4:00 PM
Ekstraklasa
Zagłębie Lubin Zagłębie Lubin
0 Winner 1
Pogoń Szczecin Pogoń Szczecin
Full Time Fri, 15 May 4:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
|
Goal
Hussein Ali - 79'

CONTEXT

Zagłębie Lubin hosted Pogoń Szczecin in a league encounter that concluded with a 0-1 away victory. The sides remained level at halftime with a 0-0 scoreline. Pogoń Szczecin controlled proceedings through superior possession at 70 percent compared to the hosts 30 percent. The decisive strike arrived after the interval allowing the visitors to claim all three points. As the stronger side on paper Pogoń delivered a performance marked by notable deviation from pre-match projections. No disciplinary dismissals occurred on either side leaving the contest free of red-card influence. The result underscored the away side ability to convert territorial dominance into the sole goal of the afternoon.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Pogoń Szczecin recorded a significant 64.5 percent structural deviation from pre-match projections.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with the stronger team expectations.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable preventing any alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: The final result did not align with pre-match market projections.
  • xG expectations: No specific xG expectations were recorded for either side.
  • Event impact: The second-half goal proved decisive in securing the 0-1 away win.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued so no distortion from dismissals occurred.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

P. Malec

Poland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Golis

1st Assistant

Poland

M. Gajda

2nd Assistant

Poland

P. Idzik

4th Official

Poland

League averages

Ekstraklasa Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.25
Yellow cards / match 3.45
Red cards / match 0.21
Penalties / match 0.2
Zagłębie Lubin L. Ojrzynski
L. Ojrzynski
VS
Pogoń Szczecin T. Thomasberg
T. Thomasberg
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.41
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 68 W
Cracovia Kraków Rank: 60 D
Nieciecza Rank: 51 L
Legia Warszawa Rank: 65 L
Radomiak Radom Rank: 62 W
Arka Gdynia Rank: 56 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 65 L
Wisła Płock Rank: 58 W
Cracovia Kraków Rank: 59 D
Lech Poznań Rank: 71 L
Piast Gliwice Rank: 61 W
Legia Warszawa Rank: 65 L
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 9 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Zagłębie Lubin
36.72%
Draw
27.77%
Away Pogoń Szczecin
35.51%

Movement

Changes since opening
Zagłębie Lubin
+36.53%
Draw
+23.57%
Pogoń Szczecin
-60.1%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.1
62.83
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Zagłębie Lubin
Pogoń Szczecin
Power Score
62.1
62.83
League Position
5
9
Global Rank
421
398

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Zagłębie Lubin — Opponent-weighted form score
Pogoń Szczecin — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Zagłębie Lubin Pogoń Szczecin

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Zagłębie Lubin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Pogoń Szczecin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Zagłębie Lubin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Pogoń Szczecin
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
41.83
30.71
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.71
41.83
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Zagłębie Lubin +1.03 Efficiency Index
vs
Pogoń Szczecin -1.03 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Zagłębie Lubin
Pogoń Szczecin
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Zagłębie Lubin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Pogoń Szczecin
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Zagłębie Lubin Pogoń Szczecin
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Zagłębie Lubin Pogoń Szczecin
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Zagłębie Lubin
Pogoń Szczecin
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Zagłębie Lubin
vs
Pogoń Szczecin
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Zagłębie Lubin Pogoń Szczecin
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Zagłębie Lubin 0.20
Pogoń Szczecin 0.19
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Zagłębie Lubin Pogoń Szczecin
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Zagłębie Lubin 0.01
Pogoń Szczecin 0.00
Zagłębie Lubin
Pogoń Szczecin
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Zagłębie Lubin had peak pressure around 39'.
  • Pogoń Szczecin started the game with stronger pressure.
Zagłębie Lubin Pressure Pogoń Szczecin Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Zagłębie Lubin reached the top pressure at 39' (99.92).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Zagłębie Lubin Zagłębie Lubin Home
31 matches
Pogoń Szczecin Pogoń Szczecin Away
Match Record
10
Wins
12
9
Draws
9
12
Losses
10
Goals
44
Goals Scored
41
41
Goals Conceded
44
+3
Goal Difference
-3

Data last updated: 2026-05-16T00:03:26+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-4-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
J. Burić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
1 J. Burić
M. Grzybek
Substitution
Poland
13 M. Grzybek
F. Kocaba
Poland
39 F. Kocaba
M. Nalepa
Poland
25 M. Nalepa
D. Michalski
Poland
4 D. Michalski
J. Čorluka
Bosnia and Herzegovina
16 J. Čorluka
M. Reguła
Poland
44 M. Reguła
J. Kolan
Substitution
Poland
26 J. Kolan
D. Dąbrowski
Poland
8 D. Dąbrowski
S. Kowalczyk
Substitution
Poland
7 S. Kowalczyk
M. Kosidis
Substitution
Greece
9 M. Kosidis
Pitch
V. Cojocaru
Romania
77 V. Cojocaru
L. Koutris
Substitution
Greece
32 L. Koutris
A. Szalai
Hungary
41 A. Szalai
D. Keramitsis
Greece
13 D. Keramitsis
L. Wahlqvist
Substitution
Sweden
28 L. Wahlqvist
P. Mukairu
Substitution
Nigeria
18 P. Mukairu
J. Biegański
Poland
6 J. Biegański
F. Ulvestad
Norway
8 F. Ulvestad
M. Agger
Substitution
Denmark
25 M. Agger
Natan Lawa
Substitution
47 Natan Lawa
F. Čuić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
10 F. Čuić

General Information

Date & Time :
May 15, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Zagłębia Lubin
Capacity :
16068
Attendance :
8112
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Paweł Malec
Dawid Igor Golis
Michał Gajda
Piotr Idzik

Statistics

Possession
Zagłębie Lubin
36%
Pogoń Szczecin
64%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 9
51 Dangerous attacks 90
30 Possession 70
3 Corners 6
12 Free kicks 8
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

9 Dribble Attempts 14
5 Substitutions 5
7 Successful Dribbles 7
8 Goal Kicks 5
16 Throwins 15
78 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
1 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Injuries 2
5 Goal Attempts 9
73 Ball Safe 75

Attacking

60 Attacks 111
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

19 Successful Long Passes 32
159 Successful Passes 496
237 Passes 563
32 Successful Long Passes Percentage 56
67 Successful Passes Percentage 88
60 Long Passes 57
7 Key Passes 11

Defensive

3 Interceptions 5
4 Saves 3
10 Tackles 6
50 Duels Won 45

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 27
6 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

8 Fouls 12
6 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : Paweł Malec

Starting XI ▼

1
Jasmin Buric
Jasmin Buric Goalkeeper
4
Damian Michalski
Damian Michalski Defender
13
Mateusz Grzybek
Mateusz Grzybek Defender
88
Mihael Mlinarić
Mihael Mlinarić
Attacker85'
16
Josip Corluka
Josip Corluka Defender
25
Michal Nalepa
Michal Nalepa Defender
39
Filip Kocaba
Filip Kocaba Defender
7
Sebastian Kowalczyk
Sebastian Kowalczyk Midfielder
6
Tomasz Makowski
Tomasz Makowski
Midfielder46'
8
Damian Dabrowski
Damian Dabrowski Midfielder
26
Jakub Kolan
Jakub Kolan Midfielder
18
Adam Radwanski
Adam Radwanski
Midfielder11'
44
Marcel Regula
Marcel Regula Midfielder
9
Michalis Kosidis
Michalis Kosidis Attacker
17
Levente Szabó
Levente Szabó
Attacker46'
Referee : Paweł Malec

Starting XI ▼

77
Valentin Cojocaru
Valentin Cojocaru Goalkeeper
13
Dimitrios Keramitsis
Dimitrios Keramitsis Defender
28
Linus Wahlqvist
Linus Wahlqvist Defender
15
Hussein Ali
Hussein Ali
Defender74'
32
Leonardo Koutris
Leonardo Koutris Defender
4
Léo Borges
Léo Borges
Defender83'
41
Attila Szalai
Attila Szalai Defender
6
Jan Bieganski
Jan Bieganski Midfielder
8
Fredrik Ulvestad
Fredrik Ulvestad Midfielder
18
Paul Mukairu
Paul Mukairu Midfielder
11
Kamil Grosicki
Kamil Grosicki
Midfielder74'
25
M. Agger
M. Agger Midfielder
23
Benjamin Mendy
Benjamin Mendy
Defender87'
10
Filip Cuic
Filip Cuic Attacker
47
N. Lawa
N. Lawa Attacker
22
Danijel Loncar
Danijel Loncar
Defender87'

Events

2ND-HALF
87'
Event
Benjamin Mendy → M. Agger
10th Substitution
87'
Event
Valentin Cojocaru
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
87'
Event
Danijel Loncar → N. Lawa
9th Substitution
Event
Mihael Mlinarić → Mateusz Grzybek
8th Substitution
85'
85'
Event
Hussein Ali
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
83'
Event
Léo Borges → Leonardo Koutris
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Hussein Ali
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Jakub Sypek → Adam Radwanski
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Levente Szabó
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
74'
74'
Event
Kamil Grosicki → Paul Mukairu
5th Substitution
74'
Event
Hussein Ali → Linus Wahlqvist
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Attila Szalai
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Levente Szabó → Michalis Kosidis
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Tomasz Makowski → Sebastian Kowalczyk
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Adam Radwanski → Jakub Kolan
1st Substitution
11'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Borges Da Silva takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Borges Da Silva takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Tomasz Makowski takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Valentin Cojocaru receives a yellow card.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Benjamin Mendy comes on for Mads Agger.
87
Update Update
Danijel Loncar is on, and Natan Lawa is off.
86
Attempt Attempt
Mihael Mlinaric takes a shot with his head but misses.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Hussein Ali receives a yellow card.
85
Update Update
Mihael Mlinaric comes on for Mateusz Grzybek.
83
Substitution Substitution
Leonardo Koutris is substituted off for Leonardo Borges Da Silva.
79
Attempt Attempt
Fredrik Ulvestad's header is saved.
79
Attempt Attempt
Hussein Ali scores with a right-footed shot.
79
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Hussein Ali scores, making it 1-0.
77
Update Update
Jakub Sypek comes on for Adam Radwanski.
75
Attempt Attempt
Dimitrios Keramitsis takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
74
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Levente Szabo receives a yellow card.
74
Attempt Attempt
Marcel Regula takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
74
Update Update
Kamil Grosicki comes on for Paul Omo Mukairu.
74
Update Update
Hussein Ali comes on for Linus Wahlqvist.
71
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dimitrios Keramitsis receives a yellow card.
68
Update Update
Filip Cuic attempts a header but misses the target.
56
Attempt Attempt
Natan Lawa takes a shot with his right foot, but it is blocked.
55
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Koutris takes a left-footed shot but misses.
51
Attempt Attempt
Mads Agger's left-footed shot is blocked.
46
Update Update
Levente Szabo comes on for Michalis Kosidis.
46
Update Update
Tomasz Makowski comes on for Sebastian Kowalczyk.
45
Attempt Attempt
Marcel Regula takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Josip Corluka takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
41
Attempt Attempt
Linus Wahlqvist takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
37
Attempt Attempt
Josip Corluka takes a left-footed shot but misses.
37
Attempt Attempt
Josip Corluka takes a left-footed shot but misses.
33
Attempt Attempt
Damian Michalski attempts a header but misses the shot.
32
Update Update
Josip Corluka's header is blocked.
30
Attempt Attempt
Mads Agger takes a left-footed shot but misses.
28
Attempt Attempt
Mads Agger's right-footed shot is blocked.
26
Attempt Attempt
Damian Michalski takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
24
Attempt Attempt
Marcel Regula takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
21
Attempt Attempt
Natan Lawa takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
21
Attempt Attempt
Natan Lawa takes a right-footed shot but misses.
20
Attempt Attempt
Paul Omo Mukairu takes a right-footed shot but misses.
15
Attempt Attempt
Jan Bieganski's left-footed shot is blocked.
11
Update Update
Adam Radwanski is on, and Jakub Kolan is off.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Pawel Malec.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Zagłębie Lubin 0-1 Pogoń Szczecin. Structural assessment: Pogoń Szczecin exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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