Zagłębie Lubin vs Nieciecza Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland

Stadion Zagłębia Lubin Fri, 24 Apr - 4:00 PM

Ekstraklasa

Zagłębie Lubin Zagłębie Lubin

Nieciecza Nieciecza

Full Time Fri, 24 Apr 4:00 PM

Round 30 Regular Season

Marcel Regula - 20'

Ivan Durdov - 90+4'

Damian Hilbrycht - 60'

Marcel Regula 66'

CONTEXT

Zagłębie Lubin fell 1-2 to Nieciecza at home, overturning a 1-0 halftime lead. Despite being the stronger team on paper, Zagłębie managed only 42% possession against Nieciecza's 58%. The home side struck first before the break, but a red card in the second half proved decisive, allowing Nieciecza to dominate and score twice. This disciplinary lapse distorted the game's structure, enabling the visitors to exploit their numerical advantage. With xG data unavailable, performance metrics rely on possession and events. The outcome showed minimal deviation at 5.8%, with market alignment confirmed. Efficiency remained in line with expectations, underscoring how the red card shifted momentum entirely in Nieciecza's favor.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Nieciecza's victory exhibited minimal structural deviation of 5.8%.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be assessed due to unavailable data.
Market alignment: Market fully aligned with Nieciecza's win.
xG expectations: xG expectations unmeasurable without data.
Event impact: Red card to Zagłębie Lubin directly enabled Nieciecza's comeback.
Red card distortion: Red card distortion defined second-half adjustments.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

D. Kos

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

P. Sokolnicki

1st Assistant

D. Bohonos

2nd Assistant

P. Wrzeszczyński

4th Official

L. Ojrzynski

M. Brosz

1.56

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

0.94

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

6 - 2 - 1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Zagłębie Lubin

0.19%

Draw

5.65%

Nieciecza

94.16%

Movement

Changes since opening

Zagłębie Lubin

Draw

+0.56%

Nieciecza

-0.56%

Team Power Ranking

23.65

17.07

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Zagłębie Lubin

Nieciecza

Power Score

23.65

17.07

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Zagłębie Lubin — Opponent-weighted form score

Nieciecza — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Zagłębie Lubin Nieciecza

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Zagłębie Lubin

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Nieciecza

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Zagłębie Lubin ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Nieciecza

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

27.98

29.14

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

29.14

27.98

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Zagłębie Lubin -0.11 Efficiency Index

Nieciecza +0.11 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Zagłębie Lubin

Nieciecza

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Zagłębie Lubin ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Nieciecza

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Zagłębie Lubin Nieciecza

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Zagłębie Lubin Nieciecza

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Zagłębie Lubin

Nieciecza

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Zagłębie Lubin

Nieciecza

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Zagłębie Lubin Nieciecza

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Zagłębie Lubin Nieciecza

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Zagłębie Lubin

Nieciecza

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

Nieciecza had peak pressure around 61'.
Zagłębie Lubin started the game with stronger pressure.

Zagłębie Lubin Pressure Nieciecza Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: Nieciecza reached the top pressure at 61' (80.92).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Zagłębie Lubin Zagłębie Lubin Home

9 matches

Nieciecza Nieciecza Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

-9

Data last updated: 2026-04-25T00:00:51+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-3-2

Match Formation 3-4-2-1

1 J. Burić

31 I. Orlikowski

25 M. Nalepa

4 D. Michalski

16 J. Čorluka

8 D. Dąbrowski

13 M. Grzybek

18 A. Radwański

20 M. Dziewiatowski

44 M. Reguła

17 L. Szabo

1 A. Chovan

3 A. Kasperkiewicz

5 L. Masoero Masi

32 M. Matysik

21 D. Hilbrycht

86 I. Strzałek

28 M. Ambrosiewicz

27 R. Boboc

9 J. Jiménez Núñez

7 M. Faßbender

25 K. Zapolnik

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 24, 2026, 04:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 30 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadion Zagłębia Lubin

Capacity :

16068

Attendance :

4722

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Damian Kos

Pawel Sokolnicki

Dariusz Bohonos

Paweł Wrzeszczyński

Statistics

Possession

Zagłębie Lubin

46%

Nieciecza

54%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2

1 Big Chances Created 2

5 Shots 3

35 Dangerous attacks 38

42 Possession 58

6 Corners 4

16 Free kicks 11

6 Yellow Cards 2

1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40

7 Goal Kicks 11

9 Dribble Attempts 15

19 Throwins 22

1 Assists 1

6 Successful Dribbles 6

7 Goal Attempts 8

60 Ball Safe 50

5 Substitutions 4

1 Injuries 0

Attacking

79 Attacks 75

0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

62 Long Passes 43

25 Successful Long Passes 21

185 Successful Passes 314

275 Passes 389

67 Successful Passes Percentage 81

40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49

8 Key Passes 9

Defensive

74 Duels Won 41

6 Saves 1

16 Tackles 8

4 Interceptions 3

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 29

5 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

11 Fouls 16

0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Damian Kos

Manager ▼

L. Ojrzynski Coach

Starting XI ▼

Jasmin Buric Goalkeeper

7.01

Damian Michalski Defender

6.9

Josip Corluka Defender

6.8

Michal Nalepa Defender

7.1

Igor Orlikowski Defender

6.65

Damian Dabrowski Midfielder

7.04

Sebastian Kowalczyk

Midfielder77'

6.51

Mateusz Grzybek Midfielder

Luka Lucic

Defender63'

6.89

Adam Radwanski Midfielder

6.79

Jakub Sypek

Midfielder64'

6.59

Mateusz Dziewiatowski Midfielder

6.53

Filip Kocaba

Midfielder64'

6.68

Levente Szabó Attacker

6.86

Michalis Kosidis

Attacker77'

6.74

Marcel Regula Attacker

6.78

Substitutes ▼

Luka Lucic

Defender63'

6.89

Jakub Sypek

Midfielder64'

6.59

Filip Kocaba

Midfielder64'

6.68

Michalis Kosidis

Attacker77'

6.74

Sebastian Kowalczyk

Midfielder77'

6.51

Bench ▼

Rafal Gikiewicz Goalkeeper

6.76

Aleks Lawniczak Defender

6.95

Maciej Urbański Defender

Arkadiusz Wozniak Midfielder

6.15

Jakub Kolan Midfielder

6.8

Jakub Ligocki Midfielder

6.33

Referee : Damian Kos