Zagłębie Lubin vs Lech Poznań Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Zagłębia Lubin Sun, 15 Mar - 1:45 PM
Ekstraklasa
Zagłębie Lubin Zagłębie Lubin
0 Winner 1
Lech Poznań Lech Poznań
Full Time Sun, 15 Mar 1:45 PM
|
Goal
Mikael Ishak - 7'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Zagłębie Lubin 0–1 Lech Poznań. The result saw Lech Poznań take the points. Lech Poznań showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 37%–63%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lech Poznań showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Stefanski

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Arys

1st Assistant

M. Obukowicz

2nd Assistant

A. Różycki

4th Official

Zagłębie Lubin L. Ojrzynski
L. Ojrzynski
VS
Lech Poznań N. Frederiksen
N. Frederiksen
1.88
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.65
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Piast Gliwice Rank: 61 W
Wisła Płock Rank: 57 W
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: 61 W
Raków Częstochowa Rank: 71 D
Korona Kielce Rank: 63 W
Katowice Rank: 63 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Raków Częstochowa Rank: 71 W
Korona Kielce Rank: 63 W
Piast Gliwice Rank: 61 W
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 64 W
Piast Gliwice Rank: 61 L
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: 61 L
13
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
13 - 13 - 14
14

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Zagłębie Lubin
22.61%
Draw
26.12%
Away Lech Poznań
51.27%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.88
68.05
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Zagłębie Lubin
Lech Poznań
Power Score
63.88
68.05
League Position
1
2
Global Rank
340
217

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Zagłębie Lubin — Opponent-weighted form score
Lech Poznań — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Zagłębie Lubin Lech Poznań

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Zagłębie Lubin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lech Poznań

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Zagłębie Lubin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lech Poznań
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
46.76
28.65
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.65
46.76
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Zagłębie Lubin +1.68 Efficiency Index
vs
Lech Poznań -1.68 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Zagłębie Lubin
Lech Poznań
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Zagłębie Lubin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lech Poznań
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Zagłębie Lubin Lech Poznań
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Zagłębie Lubin Lech Poznań
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Zagłębie Lubin
Lech Poznań
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Zagłębie Lubin Zagłębie Lubin Home
11 matches
Lech Poznań Lech Poznań Away
Match Record
3
Wins
5
3
Draws
3
5
Losses
3
Goals
12
Goals Scored
16
16
Goals Conceded
12
-4
Goal Difference
+4

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T02:06:39+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
J. Burić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
1 J. Burić
I. Orlikowski
Substitution
Poland
31 I. Orlikowski
M. Nalepa
Poland
25 M. Nalepa
D. Michalski
Poland
4 D. Michalski
J. Čorluka
Bosnia and Herzegovina
16 J. Čorluka
D. Dąbrowski
Poland
8 (C) D. Dąbrowski
M. Dziewiatowski
Substitution
Poland
20 M. Dziewiatowski
M. Grzybek
Substitution
Poland
13 M. Grzybek
M. Reguła
Poland
44 M. Reguła
M. Kosidis
Substitution
Greece
9 M. Kosidis
A. Radwański
Substitution
Poland
18 A. Radwański
Pitch
B. Mrozek
Poland
41 B. Mrozek
J. Bragança Moutinho
Substitution
Portugal
4 J. Bragança Moutinho
A. Milić
Croatia
16 A. Milić
W. Mońka
Poland
27 W. Mońka
J. Vieira Pereira
Portugal
2 J. Vieira Pereira
L. Bengtsson
Sweden
14 L. Bengtsson
P. Delgado
Substitution
Spain
99 P. Delgado
A. Kozubal
Poland
43 A. Kozubal
A. Gholizadeh
Substitution
Iran
8 A. Gholizadeh
P. Wålemark
Substitution
Sweden
10 P. Wålemark
M. Ishak
Substitution
Sweden
9 (C) M. Ishak

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 15, 2026, 01:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadium :
Stadion Zagłębia Lubin
Capacity :
16068
Attendance :
16033
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Marek Arys
Michal Obukowicz
Daniel Stefanski
Albert Różycki

Statistics

Possession
Zagłębie Lubin
42%
Lech Poznań
58%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 2
8 Shots 5
66 Dangerous attacks 61
37 Possession 63
2 Corners 3
14 Free kicks 12
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

4 Goal Kicks 10
18 Dribble Attempts 18
39 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
13 Throwins 21
7 Successful Dribbles 6
0 Hit Woodwork 1
5 Substitutions 5
3 Injuries 0
89 Ball Safe 104
8 Goal Attempts 6

Attacking

97 Attacks 115
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39
290 Passes 515
67 Successful Passes Percentage 83
195 Successful Passes 425
28 Successful Long Passes 19
9 Key Passes 13
58 Long Passes 49

Defensive

17 Tackles 15
3 Saves 1
13 Interceptions 6

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 11
4 Accurate Crosses 0

Discipline

1 Offsides 3
12 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Daniel Stefanski

Starting XI ▼

1
Jasmin Buric
Jasmin Buric Goalkeeper
6.99
4
Damian Michalski
Damian Michalski Defender
6.54
25
Michal Nalepa
Michal Nalepa Defender
7.11
31
Igor Orlikowski
Igor Orlikowski Defender
6.88
19
Jakub Sypek
Jakub Sypek
Midfielder79'
6.71
8
Damian Dabrowski
Damian Dabrowski (C) Midfielder
6.78
13
Mateusz Grzybek
Mateusz Grzybek Midfielder
6.86
35
Luka Lucic
Luka Lucic
Defender46'
6.81
16
Josip Corluka
Josip Corluka Midfielder
7.44
20
Mateusz Dziewiatowski
Mateusz Dziewiatowski Midfielder
6.36
7
Sebastian Kowalczyk
Sebastian Kowalczyk
Midfielder46'
6.63
9
Michalis Kosidis
Michalis Kosidis Attacker
6.4
17
Levente Szabó
Levente Szabó
Attacker46'
6.6
18
Adam Radwanski
Adam Radwanski Attacker
6.63
27
Jesus Diaz
Jesus Diaz
Midfielder68'
6.56
44
Marcel Regula
Marcel Regula Attacker
7.32
Referee : Daniel Stefanski

Starting XI ▼

41
Bartosz Mrozek
Bartosz Mrozek Goalkeeper
7
2
Joel Pereira
Joel Pereira Defender
7.33
4
João Moutinho
João Moutinho Defender
6.83
15
Michal Gurgul
Michal Gurgul
Defender64'
6.72
16
Antonio Milic
Antonio Milic Defender
7.21
27
Wojciech Monka
Wojciech Monka Defender
7.25
8
Ali Gholizadeh
Ali Gholizadeh Midfielder
6.85
20
Robert Gumny
Robert Gumny
Defender87'
14
Leo Bengtsson
Leo Bengtsson Midfielder
6.39
43
Antoni Kozubal
Antoni Kozubal Midfielder
6.88
99
Pablo Rodríguez
Pablo Rodríguez Midfielder
6.38
23
Gísli Thórdarson
Gísli Thórdarson
Midfielder73'
6.5
9
Mikael Ishak
Mikael Ishak (C) Attacker
7.61
7
Yannick Agnero
Yannick Agnero
Attacker73'
6.44
10
Patrik Wålemark
Patrik Wålemark Attacker
7.19
77
Luis Palma
Luis Palma
Midfielder64'
6.8

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Wojciech Monka
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
87'
Event
Robert Gumny → Ali Gholizadeh
10th Substitution
Event
Jakub Sypek → Igor Orlikowski
9th Substitution
79'
73'
Event
Gísli Thórdarson → Pablo Rodríguez
8th Substitution
73'
Event
Yannick Agnero → Mikael Ishak
7th Substitution
Event
Jesus Diaz → Adam Radwanski
6th Substitution
68'
64'
Event
Luis Palma → Patrik Wålemark
5th Substitution
64'
Event
Michal Gurgul → João Moutinho
4th Substitution
53'
Event
Antoni Kozubal
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Levente Szabó → Michalis Kosidis
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Sebastian Kowalczyk → Mateusz Dziewiatowski
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Luka Lucic → Mateusz Grzybek
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
41'
Event
João Moutinho
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Michal Nalepa
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
14'
7'
Event
Mikael Ishak
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Lech Poznań exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Zagłębie Lubin vs Lech Poznań preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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